The NFC East this year has been a train wreck. Even with some of the teams getting hot as of late, the two teams atop the division currently sit at paltry 5-7 records. While it is nothing to write home about, the race is close and there is intrigue to be had. Prior to last week’s games, I used my personal NFL model to simulate the rest of the season and see who had the best odds of taking the NFC East.
NFC East by The Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied % | Model % |
| New York | +190 | 34.5% | 41.55% |
| Washington | +190 | 34.5% | 37.73% |
| Dallas | +550 | 15.4% | 14.2% |
| Philadelphia | +275 | 26.7% | 10.6% |
Going into Week 13, my model saw value on taking the Giants and Washington, while not believing in Philly whatsoever. This is partly due to the fact that my model was higher on Washington in their matchup against Pittsburgh this past week than the market was, giving them a 38.2% chance to win that game while the closing line only gave them a 31.3% chance at victory. As we know, Alex Smith upset the Steelers while Colt McCoy and the Giants took down Seattle. With these two teams getting a win this week while Dallas and Philadelphia dropping their respective games, you would assume that the value is mostly gone.
| Team | Odds | Implied % | Model % |
| New York | -155 | 60.8% | 49.05% |
| Washington | +145 | 40.8% | 49.42% |
| Dallas | +2800 | 3.4% | 0.50% |
| Philadelphia | +1600 | 5.9% | 1.03% |
The Giants beating Seattle sucked away all of their value, however, Washington is still sitting out there at +145 when my numbers suggest it should be +102. That’s 8.62% of expected value sitting there on the market!
Remaining Schedules
While Dallas and Philly are essentially eliminated, it appears that the value of New York holding the H2H tiebreaker over Washington is being overvalued.
Taking a look at their remaining schedules, Washington plays San Francisco, Seattle, Carolina, and Philadelphia while the Giants take on Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Dallas. Outside of the Seattle game, Washington has a strong shot at winning three of these games, while likely being favored in two of them.
On the flip side, Dallas is the only one of these teams that my model has the Giants favored in.
Week 14 may be your last chance to pick up value in the NFC East futures market and I would do that by picking Washington.
Odds obtained from Bovada.
