Something I have done for the last few years is taking a look at every team’s off-season (free agency, trades, and the draft) and give them a grade. Obviously, I try to grade based on a team’s status in the league (rebuilding, playoff contender, Super Bowl contender, etc.) and weigh every team’s moves differently based on their status. So, with the draft being done, and most of the important free agency moves being completed I think we have a pretty good look at what every team is going to look like this year barring any unforeseen trades (Watson or Rodgers).
I will start with who I currently think will win the division and go down from there.
Tennessee Titans
Coaching Changes
The Titans lost Arthur Smith to Atlanta and promoted Tight End’s coach Todd Downing as the team’s new Offensive Coordinator. Admittedly, in-house hires aren’t very sexy, but that’s just how the Titans roll. They also officially promoted OLB coach Shane Bowen to Defensive Coordinator. Allegedly, he was the team’s unofficial DC, but now it’s official.
Free Agency
The Titans dumped a lot of dead weight this off-season. Cutting Malcolm Butler, Kenny Vaccaro, Adore Jackson, Jadaveon Clowney, Adam Humphries, and Isaiah Wilson. However, losing Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith did sting a bit for them as they weren’t very deep on playmakers, to begin with.
After getting rid of all of those guys they made a big splash in signing former Steeler Bud Dupree to a 5 year/$82.5 million deal. This was kind of a head-scratcher for me. Dupree has been productive over the last year and a half. However, it is really hard for me to gauge whether he was just a late bloomer or just a guy busting his tail off in a contract year. Either way, I probably wouldn’t have committed five years to him when they really aren’t in the best situation with their cap space. They do have a potential out after two years and will roughly have $10 million in dead cap. With that being said, the other notable signings they made were very good ones. Signing Denico Autry from the Colts and Janoris Jenkins from the Saints. In the end, they did reshape their defense and it seems to be for the better, but the improvement on the side of the ball is not as big as others might think.
Free Agency Grade: C+
Draft
For the Titans, getting a starting corner and playmaking was the team’s highest priority. They managed to still get some good talent overall but fell short in meeting the team’s needs.
Caleb Farley was a nice pick and will become a great pick if he can stay healthy. However, they could have gone with Greg Newsome just to get someone who doesn’t have health concerns. Getting Radnuz will be a good plug-and-play Right Tackle. While Monty Rice and Elijah Molden were good picks because of their talent, I would have preferred they take a WR at one of these two spots. Rice seems like a Jayon Brown replacement down the road. Molden can be that slot CB but already have Jenkins, Fulton, and now Farley. If they weren’t trying to become legit Super Bowl contenders I would be less critical, but they are trying to become Super Bowl contenders. And ignoring a big hole until day 3 of the draft will bring their grade down cause they need to make the team better immediately rather than down the road.
Draft Grade: C+
Off-Season Overview
The Titans got better, but not enough to become Super Bowl contenders, in my opinion. As of now, they are still my favorite to win the division. They are still good enough to win a playoff game or two. They did a good job reshaping their defense. Adding Radnuz is probably the most impactful addition they made this year. However, a lot was left to desire with them ignoring WR and TE, as well as some of the decisions in round 3 of the draft and signing Bud Dupree to a contract I simply don’t agree with.
Off-Season Grade: C+
Indianapolis Colts
Coaching Changes
The Colts also lost their Offensive Coordinator. Nick Sirianni is now with the Eagles, and much like the Titans, they had an in-house hire, promoting QB coach Marcus Brady to be the new OC.
Free Agency
Chris Ballard is not as active in free agency compared to his peers. Colts like make some smaller signings, maybe one splash signing, but they prioritize their guys. However, since Luck has retired they have been searching for the guy to take them to the next level. At first, they tried their own approach where they let Brissett be the starter. That wasn’t enough. Then they went out and got Philip Rivers, but that was only a band-aid fix. Now they need to find a long-term solution. Despite major health concerns, Carson Wentz is only 28. So, the potential for a long-term solution is there. You put the best offensive line in football and that reduces the risk for injury. You put him with the coach that almost made him an MVP winner and you can bring back some of that confidence,
Outside of Wentz, there wasn’t much to talk about. They made some small signings and re-signed some of their own guys. There weren’t many holes for them to fill, so despite the lack of activity since mid-February, the Colts get a good grade from me.
Free Agency Grade: B+
Draft
I am certain I will regret documenting these thoughts, but I was underwhelmed by the Colts draft. Ballard has proven to be very strong at drafting so I will limit the amount of criticism I give. The Kwity Paye pick was a good one as the EDGE class seemed top-heavy, and there weren’t many needs for the Colts so it seems like they went best player available. Outside of that, not sure what they saw in some of these guys. Wide Reciever was really the only position that could stand for some sort of improvement and they didn’t get one until the seventh round. Again, Ballard will probably make me look like an idiot in a few months, but for now, I will stand my ground.
Draft Grade: C
Off-Season Overview
For now, I will keep the Titans as my favorites to win the AFC South, but I think myself and most others can see a path for the Colts to win the South. While I believe that Carson Wentz can be the team’s long-term solution at QB, I still need to see him prove it and stay healthy.
Overall the Colts are a solid team across the board. They aren’t elite at either side of the ball, but both sides can step up when they need to. Right now with my expectations of Wentz they could be a playoff team that can win a game. If Wentz exceeds my expectations and turns back into 2017 Carson Wentz (which isn’t impossible) they could become legit Super Bowl contenders.
Off-Season Grade: B
Jacksonville Jaguars
Coaching Changes
The Jags are going big with the hiring of Urban Meyer. Bringing him out of retirement for the second time. Along with Meyer, the Jags brought in Darrell Bevel to be the Offensive Coordinator and Joe Cullen to be the Defensive Coordinator. With notable assistants such as Charlie Strong (former Florida DC with Urban) and Brian Schottenheimer (former Seahawks OC). So they certainly have themselves a flashy coaching staff.
Free Agency
They did not perform that well in free agency. If you’re a team like the Jaguars I would go pretty easy on free agency if they didn’t do well, but also give him a huge boost on their overall grade if they did well. That’s the one benefit of being the worst team in the league, they get more leniency from me. They made some notable signings. Getting guys like Shaquill Griffin, Roy Robertson-Harris, Rashawn Jenkins, and Marvin Jones. But those guys don’t really move the needle for me. Consider them “culture fits” if you want. Again, for me, there wasn’t much expectation from them in free agency. Guys who are pushing late-20’s, early-30’s don’t get as giddy as the rest of us when it comes to draft prospects, so it wasn’t a surprise they didn’t reel in any big names.
Free Agency Grade: C-
Draft
Here is where they will really be graded. Call me overly critical but my grade for them begins after they take Lawrence. I don’t give out points for having the first pick and taking the obvious choice. So, we start with Travis Etienne. Look, Etienne should be a good pro. But taking an RB in the first round has and always will be a bad decision unless you have nothing else to fill. Not to mention the Jaguars only had one pro-bowl-worthy player and that was their UDFA RB, James Robinson. After that, they had made a lot of picks that I liked but didn’t love per se. The one I liked the most was Walker Little out of Stanford and I think he could eventually start for this team. There weren’t many ways for the Jaguars to mess this up. Any talent makes them better.
Draft Grade: B
Off-Season Overview
Again, they couldn’t mess up getting Trevor Lawrence. I will say hiring Urban Meyer surprised me because given the reputation the Jaguars ownership has I did not think it would possible to hire a guy of Meyer’s caliber. Free agency, however, was more what I expected. I know Jaguar fans were expecting more, but guys in the league don’t value Trevor Lawrence the same way we do. There needs to be a clear path for them to win or you need to give them a large amount of money. They had a solid draft to finish off a strong start to hopefully a more successful era of Jaguars football. I will say I still have my doubts that this front office will be able to properly build around Trevor Lawrence and give him and Urban enough to succeed, But we will cross that bridge when we get to it.
Off-Season Grade: B
Houston Texans
Coaching Changes
I want to be respectful to David Culley, I really do. But the fact that was the best the Texans could do kind of sums up how far south this franchise has gone over the last two years. I really hope Culley proves me wrong because I tend to root for hires that are viewed negatively by the majority. They managed to get Lovie Smith to be their Defensive Coordinator. They also managed to add Pep Hamilton to the staff as well. So, in this regard, it could be worse.
Free Agency
A fairly mundane free agency class for the Texans. Their approach was “quantity or over quality” as they signed anybody that answered the phone. Notable guys that they signed include Tyrod Taylor, Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, Desmond King, and they traded for Marcus Cannon. However, all 20-something signings they made didn’t make up for the losses of JJ Watt, Will Fuller, Benardrick McKinney, and unofficially Deshaun Watson. Since they signed half an NFL roster, a few are bound to pan out so we will see how this approach goes because I don’t think I have ever seen an approach quite like this.
Free Agency Grade: F–
Draft
Thanks to the Dolphins robbing the Texans blind with the Larmey Tunsil trade the Texans didn’t have much of a chance to succeed. They took Davis Mills with their first pick that was in the third round. Essentially them signaling that for one reason or another Deshaun Watson will not be back with the Texans. So, they take a dart throw at QB and let him duke it out with the veteran QB and just see what they have. Nico Collins was a nice pick as it adds some size to a very small wide receiver room. Brevin Jordan was nice value in the fifth round. Again not much to break down as they only had five picks and only two in the first two days of the draft.
Draft Grade: C-
Off-Season Overview
I wouldn’t think it’s too crazy to say the Texans are worse off than when they were an expansion team. They lost JJ Watt, Jadaveon Clowney, and Deandre Hopkins all within two calendar years. Only getting a few replacement-level players, a 2nd round pick, and a 3rd round pick as compensation. Obviously having your star franchise QB wanting out is not a great situation either but it’s going to be a while before they can even trade him and who knows if they can get the same compensation I am sure they were hoping for. Obviously, it’s not their fault Watson is in hot water, but that is their predicament. They don’t have much cap space for the future. There’s going to be a lot of losing before they start winning again. Buckle up H-Town because it’s going to be a long ride.
Off-Season Grade: F-