Something I have done for the last few years is taking a look at every team’s off-season (free agency, trades, and the draft) and giving them a grade. Obviously, I try to grade based on a team’s status in the league (rebuilding, playoff contender, Super Bowl contender, etc.) and weigh every team’s moves differently based on their status. So, with the draft being done and most of the important free agency moves being completed, I think we have a pretty good look at what every team is going to look like this year barring any unforeseen trades (Watson or Rodgers).
I will start with who I currently think will win the division and go down from there.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coaching Changes: N/A
Free Agency
The Bucs were undoubtedly the most boring team in free agency. They re-signed everyone, except swapping Gio Bernard for Lesean McCoy. Since there is nothing to talk about in free agency, I will use this section to express my concerns about this “bringing the band back together” mentality they have.
It is nice on paper, but there’s the old saying “You either get better or you get worse” and for the Bucs, they certainly didn’t get better by bringing everyone back. With a lot of these guys getting up there in age, it is hard to expect most of the players they brought back to get better. Are they still the best team in the NFC? At the moment they are. However, the team they beat in the Super Bowl remade their entire offensive. Which included adding two Pro Bowl talents and stashed some lineman with great upside in Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. This is how a team gets worse by staying the same.
Free Agency Grade: C-
Draft
When a team just won the Super Bowl it is hard to find many holes for them to fill. Outside the cornerback position, there weren’t many needs that could be solved with the draft. So, like a lot of deep teams they just drafted guys to stash away for the future. They have a potential replacement for Brady in Kyle Trask, a guy I truly believe is going to be a good NFL QB. They have other guys such as Joe Tryon, Chris Hainsey, and Jaelon Darden who could be eventual starters but chances are you probably won’t see a significant impact from the rookies on the team since they decided to bring everyone back.
Draft Grade: C-
Off-Season Overview
As mentioned, there is only getting better or getting worse. If you stayed the same, then you got worse. I want to be clear though this really only affects their chances at repeating against other top-tier teams. When it comes to their division, I expect them to win it with relative ease. The only team who gave them trouble was the Saints and they got significantly worse. The Panthers and Falcons got better but nowhere near enough to have a chance to win the division barring massive injuries on the Bucs roster. While I have been critical of the Bucs this off-season they are still a top 5 team in the league.
Off-Season Grade: C-
New Orleans Saints
Coaching Changes
The Saints lost Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn to the Detroit Lions, as well as Joe Lombardi and Michael Wilhoite to the Los Angeles Chargers. The replacements are Ronald Curry (QB coach, in-house), Dan Roushar (TE coach, in-house), Ryan Nielsen (Defensive Line and Assistant HC, in-house), and Kris Richard (DB coach, Dallas).
Free Agency
This was hard to watch. They were about $70 million in the hole when free agency began. They restructured a lot of players on the team as damage control. Even then, they made a lot of moves that made the team worse to get under the cap.
Notable departures including Emmanuel Sanders, Janoris Jenkins, Kwon Alexander, Trey Hendrickson, Malcolm Brown, Sheldon Rankins, and Jared Cook. Obviously Drew Brees retiring was a loss, physically he was a shell of himself but still managed to lead the Saints to one of the best records in the league. Since they had to all these cuts, trades, and restructures just to get under the cap there weren’t a whole lot of additions made to this team in free agency. While I don’t want to punish them for having to do what needed to be done to get out of cap hell, they did put themselves there.
Free Agency Grade: F-
Draft
The only chance the Saints had at getting better and I felt…underwhelmed. While I understand the need to get an interior defensive line, there were other areas I would prefer they attacked. It was a particularly weak interior defensive line class and they chose Payton Turner over Christian Barmore–who in my opinion was the best in the class. If they weren’t sold on Barmore, they could have gone with an Edge, Corner, Safety, or Receiver and still would have been better off. Shoot, take a Quarterback. Winston and Hill both arent long-term answers so why not take a shot on Trask. They took Ian Book in round 4 and I don’t think many people expect that pick to materialize. Their best pick was Paulson Adebo in round three but aside from that a very underwhelming class.
Draft Grade: D+
Off-Season Overview
The Saints still have plenty of their corps together. Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Cam Jordan, Alvin Kamara, Malcolm Jenkins, and their entire offensive line. Sean Payton is still a terrific coach. Maybe I am giving too much leniency, but despite all the losses I still view the Saints as a strong Wild Card team who could pull an upset. Obviously that’s a huge step down for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, but while I am very harsh about their off-season, I am giving them the benefit of the doubt. I will also say a part of me acknowledges that these losses could be far more impactful than I think possible and they could take the biggest fall in the NFL.
Off-Season Grade: D
Carolina Panthers
Coaching Changes: N/A
Free Agency
It was a modest free agency for the Panthers. They moved on from some replacement-level starters and found replacements for them. They lost Russell Okung, Kawaan Short, Tre Boston, Curtis Samuel, and Teddy Bridgewater. Then brought in Cameron Erving, Pat Elflien, AJ Bouye, Hasaan Reddick, and Sam Darnold. Not much of a needle mover for me. A lot of people have been pretty adamant that Sam Darnold could be the new Ryan Tannehill, which is certainly ambitious. Darnold could improve with a team that isn’t terrible and has a guy of Joe Brady’s status. Even at his worst Tannehill still showed a lot of flashes with his potential and certainly possesses more tools that allowed him to be successful on a more competent franchise. Overall his production and efficiency were a lot better than Darnold with equally terrible coaching. Nevertheless, I will still give credit to the Panthers, Bridgewater wasn’t it for them. Rather than ride this thing out they did something to try to get better.
Free Agency Grade: C
Draft
For the second season in a row, they seemed content with building through the draft. Also for the second year in a row, I was impressed with their draft class. Jaycee Horn was a bold pick to a lot of people considering that Patrick Surtain II was still available. However, in my eyes and a lot of people I trust eyes, this was a “1A-1B” draft where it was more about scheme fit than abilities. Getting Terrace Marshall in the 2nd round was a steal. Chuba Hubbard will be a solid complementary piece to Chrisitan McCaffery. I think Shi Smith and Deonte Brown could be solid starters in the league. Of course, the best pick in the draft, drafting LS Thomas Fletcher.
Draft Grade: B+
Off-Season Overview
It was another strong, but unspectacular off-season for the Panthers. The main talking points will be about Sam Darnold and if he can turn his career around after having it nearly ruined by Adam Gase. However, when you look everywhere else you can see the potential this team has. Their extremely young defense had some flashes of dominance and they go on to add arguably the best Cornerback in the draft. They also added some more weapons on offense to try to raise the floor and you can see everything coming together for them. They still might be a year or two away to allow these guys to grow–and potentially find a new QB who gives the offense a higher ceiling–but they will still be a competitive team nonetheless. Once players start playing to their full potential they will be a team that opponents shake their head at when they see Carolina on the schedule.
Off-Season Grade: B
Atlanta Falcons
Coaching Changes
The Falcons hired Arthur Smith from the Titans. A guy who certainly had his hand in creating a simple, yet lethal, offense in Tennessee. It appears he is trying to go for the “win now” approach and he will have plenty of toys on offense to experiment with. He brought Dean Pees out of retirement (they were coordinators together in 2019) to be the defensive coordinator and Dave Ragone to be the offensive coordinator. No notable assistants in my opinion and overall kind of an underwhelming coaching staff.
Free Agency
Like the Saints, the Falcons were in cap hell and had to find a way out of it. Luckily they didn’t sacrifice as much talent as the Saints, as all they had to do was let a few replacement-level starters walk and restructure a few contracts, Matt Ryan being the headliner. Obviously with this restructure they are financially committed to Matt Ryan for the next two years whether if he’s on the team or not beyond this season. However, since they didn’t bother taking a quarterback in the draft, his chances of being back in 2022 seem likely since next year’s quarterback class looks weak after first impressions. Aside from the quarterback position, since the Falcons weren’t swimming in cap space they couldn’t really do much to improve the roster in free agency. They made a few signings with the biggest name being (WR) Cordarrelle Patterson and (S) Duron Harmon.
Free Agency Grade: C-
Draft
The Falcons seemed locked in on Kyle Pitts from the get-go. Was Tight End (Pitts really being a playmaking hybrid) the biggest need? No. However, on my board–and a lot of people’s board–Pitts was the 2nd best player in the draft and the best non-quarterback option. So, I can’t really blame them for that. They also took (S) Richie Grant in the 2nd round. No knock against him, but I liked Holland and Moerhig a lot more and felt they left some talent on the board. Jalen Mayfield in the 3rd round was a steal. While he might not be a Day 1 starter because of the players at that position, a few years down the road we will look back and realize this was a strong pick. After that, it was a pretty average draft. Just some dart throws, but nothing noteworthy of their Day 3 picks.
Overall, it was a pretty good draft. It could be a while before these picks show their true potential but a step in the right direction nonetheless.
Draft Grade: B
Off-Season Overview
Initially, I have some concerns about the coaching staff. In theory, I like the Arthur Smith hire, but looking at some of the other coaching staffs from the other teams who hired new head coaches, it just seems like they missed the mark. In addition I understand they didn’t have much choice with Matt Ryan, but at the same time I think their window has passed to win with Matt Ryan. The same goes for Julio Jones. They did make some improvements on defense, however, they weren’t great improvements. I do think they got better. However, as of right now I could only see the Falcons as a team whose ceiling maxes out as a team who could barely finish .500, which could be enough for a 7th seed. Unless Matt Ryan and Julio Jones can go back in time and rediscover what made them great, that seems highly unlikely.
Off-Season Grade: C+
More Divisional Off-Season Grades:
