Everyone knows that scoring has exploded in 2020. It took Vegas over a month to adjust to this uptick in scoring around the league. Is it because of the lack of preseason, the increased amount of passing, or 4th down aggressiveness? Could be all of these, could be none of them. While NFL offenses have been trending up for years, this year’s jump is very pronounced. The amount of QB talent in the league right now is absurd and teams are passing more than ever before.
This year I have started to track offensive output, based on a stat I know other people have used, but I’ll call it Available Yards Gained. This would measure the amount of yards you gain on each drive compared to the amount you have available to gain, expressed as a percentage. For instance, if there is a touchback and your offensive drive starts at your own 25 yard line, you would have 75 yards to go. If you get a touchdown that drive, you would have gained 100% of your available yards. If you were to gain 15 yards on the drive and punt the ball away from your own 40, that means that you gained 20% of your available yards that drive. With the help of nflfastR, I have calculated this for every drive this season and for previous seasons, dating back to 1999 (as far as this play by play data goes).
In future articles I will be touching on more in-depth numbers around this and eventually creating a model using this number to attempt to predict scores and game outcomes. But for now, let’s just take a look at how 2020 stacks up to previous years.
Trending Up
We’ve already established that NFL offenses are becoming more and more efficient. Now, let’s put some numbers to it:
| Year | Avg AYG |
| 1999 | 37.8% |
| 2000 | 38.7% |
| 2001 | 39.0% |
| 2002 | 40.1% |
| 2003 | 39.3% |
| 2004 | 40.6% |
| 2005 | 39.4% |
| 2006 | 40.0% |
| 2007 | 40.5% |
| 2008 | 41.4% |
| 2009 | 41.0% |
| 2010 | 40.6% |
| 2011 | 42.0% |
| 2012 | 42.1% |
| 2013 | 41.8% |
| 2014 | 42.8% |
| 2015 | 42.7% |
| 2016 | 43.5% |
| 2017 | 41.6% |
| 2018 | 44.6% |
| 2019 | 44.2% |
| 2020 | 47.9% |
2020 Is An Outlier
We know that the 2020 Kansas City Chiefs are insanely talented. But it’s not far fetched to say that this is the most efficient offense of all time (likely, but at least since 1999). This year’s Chiefs have gained 59.8% of their available yards each drive on average. The next closest is the 2011 New Orleans Saints at 59.3%, followed by the 2018 Chiefs, 2019 Ravens, 2018 Rams, and 2006 Colts.
The Chiefs aren’t the only team that is off the charts. Out of the 702 team seasons since 1999, 12 of the top 50 most productive offenses are in 2020:
1 Chiefs
10. Panthers
12. Packers
19. Titans
22. Seahawks
28. Raiders
30. Bills
33. Saints
34. Cardinals
45. Colts
49. Buccaneers
50. Patriots
How Much Does This Mean?
No idea. While I am still studying this, there appears to be a very strong relationship between Available Yards Gained and points scored. Obviously points scored determines the outcome of the game, so it would stand to reason that this could have some predictive power.
2020 is the year of the offense, at least until the next one.
