For the last two months on my podcast, Not Gonna Lie, I have been counting down my rankings for the upcoming season. Naturally there were some surprises, but I think the overall list was solid. Every four teams, I will add the Spotify link to listen to a more in depth analysis of team placement. But for those of you who have short attention spans, I will recap what was said in each podcast episode under the team’s name.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
The truest sign of a poor team is that no one wants to play there. I assume the owner’s son and star defensive player is the cherry on top. It is easy to forget that the Jaguars were a quarter away from playing in the Super Bowl in 2015. Now everyone cannot leave quickly enough. The bright spot is the dynamic play of second year QB Gardner Minshew. But unfortunately, even he is not enough to save this sinking ship.
31. Detroit Lions
A solid draft for the Lions helps their case slightly, but they are far removed from being a top team in the league. Whether or not Jeff Okudah turns into a stud, the loss of Quandre Diggs and Darius Slay will harm the secondary, which was their strongest position group going into 2019.
30. Cincinnati Bengals
No, Joe Burrow is not an Andrew Luck caliber player. He is not capable of taking absolute garbage to the playoffs his rookie season, it probably will not even happen year two. Nothing excites a fan base more than a #1 overall QB selection. But even with the Trae Waynes and DJ Reader signings, the Bengals are a ways away from being competitive in the loaded AFC North.
29. New York Jets
The Jets are an anomaly to me. They have a very smart GM, who has put together a semi solid roster. They also have one of the most dysfunctional coaches in the league. The are a mix of rebuilding and imploding at the same time. The jury is still out on Sam Darnold, but I absolutely want to see what he can to with a halfway decent offensive line.
28. Carolina Panthers
Remember how a said a #1 overall QB energizes a franchise? The young upstart coach has the same effect. Matt Rhule left Baylor with a massive hype train following close behind him. Putting my faith in Teddy Bridgewater is an extremely dangerous exercise, especially because the team feels like they are rebuilding and tanking at the same time.
27. Washington Redskins
The nononsense nature of Ron Rivera is a perfect combination for the young Washington Redskins. With the addition of Chase Young, their defensive line is one of the best in the league. A lot more needs to be seen from Dwayne Haskins, but all signs point to the team moving in the right directions.
26. New York Giants
Daniel Jones was a pleasant surprise this past season. Now that Eli Manning announced his retirement, Jones is the guy in NY. Dave Gettleman and the computer folk (great band name btw) had an uncharacteristically solid draft, picking up key plug and play guys right away. A healthy year with Saquon and the Giants could be a sneaky team to watch in the next few years.
25. Miami Dolphins
The heaviest spenders in free agency got a lot better. They signed or drafted players at virtually every position just to keep things interesting. Brian Flores proved he is more than capable of grinding out wins for his team, even with virtually no talent. When or if Tua sees the playing field will be a key question that remains to be seen. If not, Fitzmagic is alive and well in South Beach.
24. Chicago Bears
All the way up to the double doink, the future looked bright in the Windy City. A couple years removed, the future looks questionable at best. The made a few key acquisitions in the offseason, but nothing that leads me to believe they are a true playoff threat.
23. Atlanta Falcons
Even with all 11 offensive players being first round picks, I cannot bring myself to believe in Atlanta. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are dangerously close to past their primes and Todd Gurley may not be able to play. Not to mention the NFC South is one of the toughest divisions in football. The Falcons have their work cut out for them and all the signs point to them not being ready for the job.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
Take away the QB and this is one of the most complete teams in football. It is unfortunate that their offensive line has gotten better after the departure of Phillip Rivers. Part of the reason I have them at #22 is because of their belief in Justin Herbert. Most of the team’s elite players are young and I am hesitant on their approach of pushing all the chips on the signal caller from Oregon. I do like Tyrod Taylor, but the goal is not to sneak into the playoffs with a 9-7 record.
21. Arizona Cardinals
They are going to be one of the most exciting teams in football. They will win games they lose and lose games they should win. Josh Jones will be an immediate impact on the offensive line and Isaiah Simmons will only be limited based on what the coaching staff does with him. Kyler Murray could very well be an MVP candidate, but the team’s lack of wins will cause him to struggle.
20. Las Vegas Raiders
Another team that was a big spender in free agency, the Raiders could surprise a lot of people this year. Their draft was decent, but they could have hit on some bigger needs. One of the more interesting pieces of their schedule is weeks 2-5, where they play the Saints, Patriots, Bills, and Chiefs all in a row.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
One of the best defenses in the league at this point. You can go back and listen to my interview with Bud Dupree if you have any questions about that statement. Like the Chargers, QB is a huge question mark for them. Will they be able to figure out a solution? Probably not this year. I think they are one of the favorites to sign Cam Newton, who would provide them with some much needed depth when (not if) Big Ben goes down.
18. Houston Texans
The worst offseason of any team in the league. Deshaun Watson is a fringe top 5 QB in the league, but his Coach/GM is not doing him any favors. Not only did they trade away one of the best WR in the league, but they heavily overpaid the LT far above market value. As a Colts fan, I love to see the dysfunction, but as a fan of Deshaun Watson, it is tough to see his rookie contract wasted like this.
17. New England Patriots
No more Tom Brady, is the future of the Pats in Jarrett Stidham? Probably not. But Bill Belicheck almost always finds a way. This will be the year that we find out who is responsible for the success of the Pats over the last 20 years: Brady or Belicheck?
16. Los Angeles Rams
It is hard to believe they appeared in a Super Bowl 2 years ago. Although they added a star in Jalen Ramsey, at some point they are going to have to pay all of these players. They started by cutting Todd Gurley, but will they eventually have to restructure Jared Goff’s contract? Things could be reaching a boiling point in LA.
15. Tennessee Titans
Although the Titans rode Derrick Henry to the AFC Championship this past season, all the signs point to a flash in the pan year. Henry is getting older and already has a ton of miles on his legs. Tannehill played well in his role, but I cannot imagine he is going to carry the team.
14. Minnesota Vikings
I cannot tell if the Vikings are good or not. On one hand, they upset the Saints in the playoffs and have playmakers on every side of the ball. The other side points to unrest amongst teammates, a disgruntled star WR traded, and a RB that wants top dollar this season. Time will be the best judge of this team, but #14 feels same.
13. Denver Broncos
A team I am absolutely pumped about. Their play during the last 5 games of the season was incredible. On top of that they improved drastically in the draft. If Drew Lock can forgo the sophomore slump, the Broncos could be one of the better teams in the AFC this upcoming season.
12. Cleveland Browns
I got in trouble last year picking Baker Mayfield as my MVP, but I promise this is a rational decision. Not only have they hired a new head coach who will do a better job of running the ball. Both sides of their line have drastically improved. Many have hopped off the hype train, but like in stocks, it is important to buy low.
11. Philadelphia Eagles
Always apply the term ‘when healthy’ when addressing the Eagles. The injury bug hit them hard last year and they still limped into the playoffs. We are starting to get into the mode of questioning Carson Wentz, but people forget he was an MVP front runner before his tore his ACL. With healthy options and an improved defense, the Eagles will do their best to stay on top in the NFC East.
10. Green Bay Packers
After being demolished by the 49ers, many people started to believe the Packers were not the cream of the crop in the NFC. I guess the front office believed so too because their first two picks help them in the long run, not this upcoming year. I love Jordan Love and many forget that Brett Farve was the same age when the Packers drafted his replacement. But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking these guys are making a Super Bowl push next year.
9. Indianapolis Colts
One of the more confusing teams to gauge. I love them as my favorite team, but Phillip Rivers success or failure will mirror the team’s success or failure. For this exercise I decided to split the middle and assume he does an adequate job. I think many analysts undervalue just how good they were this past season and they got exceptionally better. Look out for these Colts.
8. Buffalo Bills
I thought Sean McDermott would have been an excellent candidate for coach of the year. They are doing some awesome things in Buffalo and the time to win is now. Josh Allen naturally has to take some steps into being effective in real life as well as fantasy, but the Bills are no pushover in the NFC.
7. Seattle Seahawks
Outside of Russell Wilson, this team is poorly built. The defense ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, yards allowed per game, and sacks. This is before they supposedly have let Jadaveon Clowney walk in free agency. Russell Wilson is reportedly dropping weight so he can be more agile in the pocket, which shows you what he thinks of the O line. Fortunately, Wilson is the 2nd best QB in the league, so this certainly helps with the team’s standing.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs sacrificed the long haul for a potentially successful two years. It is unfortunate that the team gave up on Jameis Winston, plain and simple. The Bucs are not without their questions, such as the defense or the run game. Having one of the best QBs in history certainly helps alleviate those fears, but all it takes in one freak injury and Blaine Gabbert suddenly becomes the guy in Tampa.
5. Dallas Cowboys
From a pure talent standpoint, the Cowboys are arguably the best team in the league. Sure the defense has questions, but best receiver trio, one of the best offensive lines, one of the best RBs, and an above average quarterback. On paper, this team is insanely good. Unfortunately, the struggled to score double digit points in four of their games this past season, which is not a good look. That is what Mike McCarthy is inheriting with this team. Not structurally sound, but unimaginable upside.
4. San Francisco 49ers
The runner-ups in the Super Bowl come in 4th in this power ranking because of the way they built themselves this offseason. They lost Emmanuel Sanders, traded DeForest Buckner, and Joe Staley retired. They found two replacements in the draft in Bradon Ayiuk and Javon Kinlaw and traded for Trent Williams. I don’t hate this move, it just does not get them better right now. They become younger and cheaper, not necessarily better.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Through all the hype and fuss that surrounds the Ravens, many people forget that Lamar Jackson is still winless in the playoffs. Specifically, he has a 3-3 TD-INT ratio and completed 51% of his passes during that time. They draft incredibly well and are able to put a great team out there on the field. But playoff Lamar is worrisome to me.
2. New Orleans Saints
I believe the Saints have the best constructed roster in the NFL if you take away the QB position. But fortunately they have two above average QBs on their roster right now, which makes them even better. They have struggled the last three years in the playoffs (see Minneapolis Miracle) but Drew Brees would love to go out on top and this team gives him a chance to do just that.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Super Bowl Champs! Of course! Who else could top this list. Patrick Mahomes has reached the pinnacle of the NFL in just 3 years, winning the MVP and a Super Bowl trophy in consecutive years. The trick for the Chiefs will be keeping the team in tact when they pay him an absurd amount of money here in the coming years.