Two names are dominating Twitter as we enter week 10: Cam Newton and Odell Beckham Jr. You might read that and think we’re back in 2015, but it really is 2021, and these are the guys who could be joining new squads sooner rather than later. Newton appears to be headed back to Carolina, where he had his MVP season and is hailed as a legend. The jury is still out on where Odell will land, though it appears that Kansas City, Green Bay, and New Orleans are the potential destinations.
With these two acquisitions, and a number of essential matchups coming up, it’s safe to say the season is in full swing. The playoff pictures in both divisions are murky right now, and the next 2-3 weeks will be huge in creating some separation.
Last Week: 7-7 Straight Up, 9-5 ATS
Running Total: 90-45 Straight Up, 79-56 ATS
Thursday Night: Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins
Lamar Jackson continues to defy the narrative that he cannot lead a comeback. Jackson took over against Minnesota last week to guide Baltimore to another win, and to keep pace atop the AFC. He shouldn’t have much trouble building a lead against Miami tonight. The Ravens keep it rolling.
The Pick: Ravens 31-20
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Falcons at Cowboys (-9.5)
The Cowboys offense pulled a disappearing act last week against Denver. A unit that had been rolling suddenly couldn’t get anything going until garbage time. Dallas needs to be careful heading into this matchup with Atlanta. The Falcons have sneakily been a competitive team all year, and Cordarrelle Patterson continues to shine with increased usage. I do think Dallas gets it done, but it’ll be another close one.
The Pick: Cowboys 30-26
Saints at Titans (-3)
How about the Tennessee Titans. Every sign pointed towards a Rams victory on Sunday night, and Tennessee simply outclassed them. Ryan Tannehill didn’t have to do too much, as the defense made life tough for Matthew Stafford all night long. The Saints continue to be a riddle, but I think the safer bet is that they are not serious contenders with Trevor Siemian at the helm. The Titans look like the AFC favorites right now, and I don’t see them slowing down this week.
The Pick: Titans 27-20
Jaguars at Colts (-10.5)
Last week we were treated to the “Josh Allen Game.” If you were watching NFL RedZone, then you heard Scott Hanson mention the Jacksonville LB at least 100 times. It was with good reason, as Allen stole the show from the Bills QB with the same name. Jacksonville’s defense locked in and orchestrated the biggest upset in football so far this season. Is this a win that breathes new life into the Jags? I’m not sold. There’s still a lot of issues on offense, and it took a herculean performance from the D to scrape out a win. We’ll see how they handle Jonathan Taylor and the Colts this week before making any snap judgements.
The Pick: Colts 27-17
Browns at Patriots (-2)
We finally got a chance to see Cleveland’s defense at nearly 100%, and it didn’t disappoint. The Browns secondary made life miserable for Joe Burrow, and the offense carved Cincy en route to a big time win. With Nick Chubb out this weekend due to Covid, we’ll see if D’Ernest Johnson can repeat what he did the last time he was Cleveland’s feature back. The Patriots have been playing great football as of late. The defense is locked in and Mac Jones is playing safe and smart football. The X-factor in this one, however, is Myles Garrett. He’ll make the rookie QB just uncomfortable enough to steal a big one on the road for the Brownies.
The Pick: Browns 26-23
Bills (-13) at Jets
This is a less than ideal time for the poor Jets to get Buffalo. You have to imagine that the loss to the Jags isn’t sitting well for a team vying for home field advantage in the AFC. Expect a lot of that to come out on the field this Sunday. Even the return of the great Mike White might not be able to turn the tides in this one.
The Pick: Bills 30-13
Lions at Steelers (-8.5)
The Steelers were the beneficiary of the one of the most… interesting taunting call we’ve seen all year. The rule continues to plague games across the league, but it’s direct impact on Monday night certainly stands out. Nonetheless, the Steelers sit at 5-3 with a great chance to push that up a game against the winless Lions. TJ Watt has been a game wrecker all season, and he’s the kind of player that feasts on inferior opponents.
The Pick: Steelers 24-16
Buccaneers (-9.5) at Football Team
Isn’t it crazy that this is a rematch of last year’s Wild Card round? The Bucs are defending champions, and it’s crazy to think they were just able to sneak into the playoffs last season. On the other hand, it’s wild that Washington is just a year removed from a division title, albeit in a very weak division. The Football Team is simply outmatched in this game at nearly every level. Taylor Heinicke had a gutsy performance last year against Tampa, but I’m not getting my hopes up this time around.
The Pick: Bucs 35-20
Panthers at Cardinals (-10)
The rumors about Cam Newton heading back to Carolina continue to grow. While I doubt he’d see the field this week, his return to the Panthers would be a great nod to his first run there. Is he going to turn around their season? Probably not. Will it be awesome to see. You bet. Regardless, it shouldn’t matter much who’s on the field against the Cardinals. Even without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Chase Edmonds, Arizona handled San Francisco last week behind James Conner. The Cardinals are legit, folks.
The Pick: Cardinals 33-24
Vikings at Chargers (-3.5)
Justin Herbert got back to business last week against Philly. He’s starting to get Keenan Allen more involved in the offense, and it’s paying off. The Vikings dropped another heartbreaker in OT against the Ravens. Both of these teams love to play close games, so no matter which way it goes, I expect it to come down to the final possessions. This is a toss-up to me, but I’ll ride with the underdogs.
The Pick: Vikings 34-31
Eagles at Broncos (-3)
The Broncos picked up a statement win on Sunday. After trading Von Miller, and dropping nearly every game they’d played against a quality opponent, Denver stomped Dallas from start to finish. Teddy Bridgewater and his group will need to continue to build on this performance, as they are firmly in the AFC Playoff hunt. Keeping that momentum means taking every game against inferior opponents, such as Philly.
The Pick: Broncos 27-24
Seahawks at Packers (-3.5)
Russell Wilson’s back. Chris Carson should be as well. Is it enough for Seattle to head into Green Bay and start to turn their season around? Maybe not right away. Regardless on your thoughts of Aaron Rodgers right now, the man makes a difference on the football field. Getting him back at home is huge for the Packers, and still elevates them over even a Russ-led Seahawks crew.
The Pick: Packers 30-27
Sunday Night: Chiefs (-2.5) at Raiders
As the Kansas City defense begins to put some pieces together, the offense starts to look inept. We’ve never seen a prolonged stretch like this from Patrick Mahomes in his entire career. Teams continue to play 2-deep at an insane rate, and are challenging Mahomes to methodically move down the field with short throws. There weren’t many offensive positives against Green Bay, but finally not turning the ball over is a place to start. The Raiders just suffered a very bad loss to the Giants. All of a sudden, this Sunday Night showdown holds major implications for both teams. Purely based on coaching, and Andy Reid’s track record against the AFC West, I’ll give the Chiefs the edge.
The Pick: Chiefs 26-23
Monday Night: Rams (-4) at 49ers
For the first time since his arrival in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford looked human against Tennessee. The Titans had a strong defensive gameplan and were able to halt an offense that’s been humming all year long. The 49ers couldn’t say the same against the Cardinals. James Conner ran all over this team, and even without Kyler Murray, the Niners didn’t have many answers. I expect Stafford to get back on track Monday.
The Pick: Rams 35-27
MVP Race:
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): A poor showing from Stafford moves Brady back up following his bye week. He’s played efficient football all year, and I don’t see that stopping anytime soon.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Even with the bad week, Stafford still holds a top spot for me. Every QB experiences tough games. That doesn’t detract from what Stafford has done all year.
- Lamar Jackson (QB- BAL): Lamar put himself firmly in the conversation with another comeback performance. He’s taken his game to a new level this year, and he might be approaching a 2nd MVP award.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): The Cardinals were alright without him last week, but I’m sure they’d rather have him in the lineup. Murray continues to enjoy a breakout year.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Sure, last week was bad. I still have a lot of confidence in Allen to pick it back up and continue to enjoy the great season he’d been enjoying prior to Jacksonville.
*On The Cusp: Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Justin Herbert, Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Cooper Kupp
