We’re getting closer and closer to the holidays which means that football season is heating up. As we get into Week 11, the playoff race is as muddled as ever. Plenty of teams from both divisions have legitimate shots at sneaking their way into the field. Home field advantage is up for grabs as well on both sides. The biggest way to secure a spot late in the year is to dominate your divisional games. As we enter the last few months of the year, pay special attention to those rivalries and divisional matchups. They mean more this year than ever.
Some teams I’m paying close attention to this week are the Patriots, Chiefs, Colts, 49ers and Vikings. All picked up big wins last week, and are inching closer to their potential on the season. Sustaining success is the key, and I’ll be curious to see which ones out of this group can keep it rolling.
Last Week: 7-6-1 Straight Up, 7-7 ATS
Running Total: 97-51-1 Straight Up, 86-63 ATS
Thursday Night: Patriots (-6.5) at Falcons
Don’t look now, but Mac Jones has New England firmly in the hunt in the AFC. The rookie continued to play solid football and let his defense do the rest in a blowout win against Cleveland. They’ll head to the ATL for a Super Bowl rematch with the Falcons. Matt Ryan’s group was embarrassed by Dallas last week, and you can bet they’ll be a little more locked in tonight. Either way, I still like the Patriots in a close one.
The Pick: Patriots 27-24
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Colts at Bills (-7)
The Colts have dug themselves out of an early hole and have entered the playoff discussion. With Derrick Henry out, Jonathan Taylor may have a claim for the league’s best RB. Taylor is riding an insane streak of games, and continues to punish opposing defenses. He gets his biggest test yet with Buffalo. The Bills got back to their winning ways with an easy victory over the Jets. This is the time of year you’d want to see Josh Allen really kick it into gear. I expect him to do that with a win over Indy.
The Pick: Bills 37-31
Ravens (-6) at Bears
Baltimore looked out of sync in a stunning Thursday night loss to Miami last week. It was one of the worst games we’ve seen from Lamar Jackson in a while. They’ve got a good chance to get back on track this week with a mini-bye and a good matchup against Chicago. Justin Fields continues to progress and get better each week, but it’s clear that right now, this isn’t a playoff team. The Ravens pick up a road W here.
The Pick: Ravens 30-23
Lions at Browns (-11.5)
The Lions were so close! It’s impossible to not root for Dan Campbell and his Lions crew. Campbell has earned the love of his players, and each week this team gets closer and closer to a win, the talent just isn’t there. A tie is a fitting outcome for this team, and now they head to Cleveland to face a Browns team fresh off of getting blown out. Nick Chubb’s return will make the difference as Cleveland gets back on track.
The Pick: Browns 33-20
Texans at Titans (-10.5)
Tennessee continues to get it done. After taking it to the Rams, Tennessee grinded out a win against the Saints last week to extend their winning streak. Ryan Tannehill is now 2-0 in the post-Derrick Henry part of this season, and he should get to 3-0 with a home matchup against Houston. The Texans continue to struggle to win games, and at this point it’s in their best interest to focus on the future.
The Pick: Titans 31-21
Packers (-1.5) at Vikings
The Green Bay defense made a statement by pitching a shutout to spoil Russell Wilson’s return to the field. The Packers’ D has been solid all season, and it’s a big reason many feel this is the league’s best team 10 weeks in. This week they’ll take on a Minnesota team that finally ended up on the winning side of a close game last week. The Vikings have a ton of weapons on offense, it was only a matter of time before they figured it out and turned it into a key victory. I’ll double down on Kirk Cousins’ group and say they pull off a minor surprise at home by handing Aaron Rodgers an L on Sunday.
The Pick: Vikings 28-24
Dolphins (-3) at Jets
The Dolphins have strung together a few wins in a row, and their defense is starting to show shades of the unit from last season. The Jets, meanwhile, will start Joe Flacco at quarterback this week. I’m taking the Phins.
The Pick: Dolphins 26-20
Saints at Eagles (-2)
Both of these teams have done a Jekyll and Hyde act this season. You just don’t know what you’re going to get when either of these groups takes the field. The Saints are capable of taking down some of the leagues best, but will then go out and lay some eggs as well. Philly has blown some teams out, and they’ve also been on the bad side of some lopsided games. I’m going to take the Eagles and ride with the home field advantage at the Linc.
The Pick: Eagles 28-23
Football Team at Panthers (-3)
Cam Newton’s likely first start back in Carolina comes against Ron Rivera. Sometimes the scripts write themselves. Newton barely saw the field in last week’s win over Arizona, but when he did, it was picture-perfect. Cam simply belongs in that Panthers jersey, and I can’t wait to see how this team finishes the year out with him at the helm.
The Pick: Panthers 31-27
49ers (-6.5) at Jaguars
The Niners offense was everything fans expected it to be last week against the Rams. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel showed how valuable they are, and San Francisco walked all over Matthew Stafford and the new-look Rams. They should keep it rolling against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Despite playing better in recent weeks, the Jags still are a lower-tier squad, and San Fran is too talented to drop this one.
The Pick: 49ers 30-20
Bengals (-1) at Raiders
Two teams trending in the wrong direction play a huge one in Vegas this weekend. Cincy and Vegas have both lost their grip on their respective divisions, and now each game is crucial towards their playoff chances. The Bengals should be fresh coming off a bye, while the Raiders hope to use this as a bounce back following a smackdown from the Chiefs on Sunday night. This is a very tough one for me, but ultimately, I think Derek Carr plays one of his better games and picks up a gritty win for Vegas.
The Pick: Raiders 34-31
Cardinals (-2.5) at Seahawks
It’s very hard to get an accurate read on this one until we know what Kyler Murray’s status looks like. I’m going off the belief that he will return to the field for this divisional matchup in Seattle. That’s bad news for the Seahawks, who sit in unfamiliar territory at the bottom of the NFC West. Russ’s comeback didn’t go quite as expected, even though Ian Rapoport thinks he’s Wolverine. This just might not be Seattle’s year, and that’s ok. The Seahawks franchise has enjoyed a ton of success, and I don’t think that dark days are ahead, unless Russ leaves. Then maybe they are.
The Pick: Cardinals 29-26
Cowboys at Chiefs (-2.5)
The game of the week goes down in Arrowhead. Dallas and KC put on the two most explosive offensive performances last week, and both came a week after uninspiring efforts that led to a lot of questions. The Chiefs have won 3 in a row, and last week was the one where the offense looked like the one we’ve grown used to seeing. Dallas steamrolled Atlanta, and Dak Prescott is creeping his way to the top of the MVP discussion. Ultimately, this could be a turning point victory for Kansas City. If they lose, it creates a tougher path to the playoffs. If Dallas loses, they still lead the NFC East by a significant margin. The crowd at Arrowhead ensures that’s the result.
The Pick: Chiefs 38-35
Sunday Night: Steelers at Chargers (-6.5)
The Steelers should have to take a loss in the standings for their performance in Detroit. They did their very best to give away the game in overtime, but still managed to scrape out a tie. Meanwhile, the Chargers dropped another tough one against Minnesota. Something is a little off in LA, and Justin Herbert needs a solid game to get the ship back on course. I expect another low-scoring matchup, thanks to Pittsburgh’s solid defense, but I do think the Chargers pick up a crucial primetime win.
The Pick: Chargers 20-16
Monday Night: Giants at Buccaneers (-10.5)
Not many saw Tampa Bay slipping up against Washington last week. Taylor Heinicke led a near-perfect 10 minute, 4th quarter drive to clinch the ballgame and hand Tampa their 2nd loss in as many games. I think Tom Brady will be fine, but it’s clear this team’s X-factor lies in Antonio Brown. They’ve been miles more efficient when he’s been on the field, and he will be a huge difference maker in the playoffs. Even if Saquon does come back, it feels like the Giants are catching Tampa on a tough week.
The Pick: Bucs 31-23
MVP Race:
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Despite a tough week last week, I’ve still got Tom atop my list. The MVP is as up for grabs as I can ever remember it being, so there’s a lot of valid options at 1. I trust the stability of Brady to continue to put up the numbers that pass the eye-test in this race.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Allen came back with a much better effort last week after his disaster in Jacksonville. He’s got a chance to pick up some signature wins and grow his case for his first MVP award.
- Dak Prescott (QB- DAL): Dak was unstoppable against Atlanta last week, and he’s really played great football for most of the year. Going into Kansas City and picking up a win could vault him even higher up this list.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Sure, the past two weeks for Stafford have been rough, but he’s still worth a spot on this list. His overall body of work has been great and he’s got the Rams squarely in the hunt in the NFC.
- Aaron Rodgers (QB- GB): Rodgers didn’t put up gaudy numbers against Seattle, but he once again proved that his presence can be enough to help Green Bay win games. In terms of value, there aren’t many that mean more to their respective teams.
*On The Cusp: Kyler Murray, Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert,
