Happy Turkey Day! Thanksgiving has always been my favorite holiday, and football plays a significant role in that. There’s no greater feeling than sinking into your couch to watch the Cowboys in the afternoon slot with your family. Traditions like Thanksgiving football are why I love sports so much, and I can’t wait to catch all the action today.
Beyond today, there are some great matchups set for Sunday as well. I’ll have a close eye on Tennessee, Buffalo and the Rams. This week represents a critical point for each of these teams. All of these squads have been considered major contenders at some point this year, and now they’re all facing big tests off of losses. This week should tell us a lot about who’s still for real.
Last Week: 11-4 Straight Up, 9-6 ATS
Running Total: 108-55-1 Straight Up, 95-69 ATS
Thanksgiving Games
Bears (-3) at Lions
Lions’ Thanksgiving games always feel like the most random football games of the year. Something about the early start paired with the Lions being one of the teams playing makes it unpredictable. In easily the least interesting matchup of the day, gimme the Lions to pick up their first win of the year
The Pick: Lions 26-24
Raiders at Cowboys (-7.5)
Two teams coming off of bad losses square off in a short week. The Raiders are in a tailspin currently, but a win at Dallas could get them back on track. I wouldn’t be feeling too optimistic if I were a Vegas fan. I think Dak Prescott has a bounce back game, even without Amari Cooper, and the ‘Boys get back in the W column.
The Pick: Cowboys 38-28
Bills (-5.5) at Saints
Here’s two more teams that were on the bad end of blowouts last week. In spite of the smackdown from the Colts, I still think the Bills can be legitimate AFC contenders. The same cannot be said for the Saints. With no real answer at QB, the next few weeks could be a challenge. Buffalo picks one up on the road here in a low-scoring matchup.
The Pick: Bills 22-19
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Steelers at Bengals (-4.5)
The Bengals have a great opportunity to nab a divisional win if the Pittsburgh D remains banged up. TJ Watt’s status is up in the air, and this is a game he could wreck if he goes. Cincy has the weapons to make life very tough for the Steelers’ backups, and I think we’ll see that on display in a signature win.
The Pick: Bengals 31-28
Buccaneers (-3) at Colts
Probably the game of the week on paper. Jonathan Taylor is picking up where Derrick Henry left off when it comes to running backs carrying their teams. Taylor has been on another planet for the past month, and his performance against the Bills was the capper. It’s hard to pick against Indy when he’s humming like he is. Nonetheless, Tom Brady heads into town with a chance for a big road win. The offense clearly missed Rob Gronkowski, and having him back adds a missing dimension to the Bucs’ offense. I see this going either way, but ultimately I think TB12 finds a way.
The Pick: Bucs 27-24
Panthers (-1.5) at Dolphins
The Dolphins have strung together a few wins and their defense is playing solid football lately. They’ll get another test when Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey come to town. Coming off a loss to the Washington Football Team, this game will be central to keeping Carolina in the Wild Card conversation. The Panthers are more talented than Miami, and I think they put it together in a road win.
The Pick: Panthers 28-20
Titans at Patriots (-6.5)
Who would have believed this spread three weeks ago? The Patriots are the hottest team in the league, and the Titans looked broken in a shocking loss to the Texans last week. We knew losing Derrick Henry would significantly impact this offense, but I don’t think anyone expected the struggles last Sunday. Ryan Tannehill needs a bounce back week, and facing the New England secondary is not ideal for that. As long as Mac Jones continues to take care of the ball, the Patriots pick up a signature win to keep pace in the AFC East.
The Pick: Patriots 26-23
Eagles (-3.5) at Giants
Jalen Hurts found the end zone 3 times last week as the Eagles took it to the Saints. Philly is starting to play solid football, and their offense has really come alive. The same cannot be said for their NFC East rivals. The Giants never had a chance against Tampa, and Jason Garrett’s dismissal was a long time coming. The clock is ticking on Danny Dimes. Another measly performance this week may accelerate that process.
The Pick: Eagles 34-24
Falcons (-1) at Jaguars
This might be the least intriguing matchup of the season. Two offenses that have sputtered throughout the year duke it out in Jacksonville. At the end of the day, Matt Ryan is more experienced than Trevor Lawrence, and that decides this one.
The Pick: Falcons 24-21
Jets at Texans (-2.5)
The Texans picked up their signature win of the year with a stunning upset over Tennessee. They have a great opportunity to pick up a second in a row with a home matchup against the Jets. Zach Wilson returns for New York after missing the middle part of the season. If Tyrod Taylor plays a cleaner game than Wilson, which I anticipate happening, the Texans should take care of business.
The Pick: Texans 28-23
Chargers (-3) at Broncos
The Chargers offense got back on track on Sunday night. Justin Herbert took it to the Steelers both through the air and on the ground. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams looked like the 1-2 receiving punch we saw early in the year. If they can sustain the success, not many teams will want to see them in January. The Broncos are fresh off a bye, and have always played the Chargers very close. I expect this to be one of the closest games of the year, and I’m going to roll the dice on a mild upset in Mile High.
The Pick: Broncos 31-30
Rams at Packers (-1)
The Rams desperately needed the bye last week. After two straight weeks of bad losses, Sean McVay’s group gets a chance to reboot and prep for the Packers. With the way Green Bay’s defense is playing, it’s going to be a challenge for LA to come out of Lambeau with a victory. Aaron Rodgers controls the game and the Packers pick up a big win with playoff seeding implications.
The Pick: Packers 27-24
Vikings at 49ers (-3)
Both of these teams are rolling right now, and this is a huge matchup for playoff position. It’s unlikely that either of these teams can catch their divisional leaders, but both have a great shot to enter the NFC field as a higher Wild Card team. Kirk Cousins has quietly put together a fantastic season, and Jimmy G has taken care of the ball over the past few weeks and gotten the ball in the hands of his playmakers. Home field makes the difference in this one as the 49ers sneak out a big win.
The Pick: 49ers 35-32
Sunday Night: Browns at Ravens (-3.5)
Sunday night presents a great opportunity for the Ravens to set the tone on the national stage. Following a loss to Miami and an uninspiring performance against Chicago without Lamar Jackson, Baltimore can make a statement with a win against the Browns. Lamar will be back, and the Ravens offense should elevate with him under center. Cleveland eeked one out against the Lions last week, and they just don’t look like the contenders many thought they’d be when the season began.
The Pick: Ravens 34-26
Monday Night: Seahawks at Football Team (-1)
Russ isn’t cooking right now. The Seahawks offensive woes have continued even with their superstar back under center. They’ll head to Washington Monday night to take on a group that’s playing their best football of the season. The Football team has put some of the pieces together, and in a crowded NFC, they only sit a game out of the Wild Card. Despite the struggles, I can’t bring myself to pick against Seattle here. Russ gets back on track, and DK Metcalf has a huge game as Seattle steals one in DC.
The Pick: Seahawks 26-22
MVP Race
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Brady did his thing last, and many of the top candidates in this race cannot say the same. In my opinion, this award continues to be his until someone takes it from him.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Stafford moves back up following his bye week as a product of some poor performances from guys above him. His past couple weeks haven’t been great, but his overall season has been fantastic. I’m excited to see what he does over these next few critical weeks.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Allen wasn’t very good against Indy last week, but I still think he’s a top contender for this award. The Bills are facing a little adversity for the first time this year. If he can pull them through it, he’ll definitely stay in this conversation.
- Jonathan Taylor (RB- IND): Running back sighting! We can’t ignore what Taylor has done in November. Not only are his stats gaudy, but the Colts are winning. When you talk about value, it’s hard to imagine the Indy offense moving like it has without Taylor’s presence.
- Kirk Cousins (QB- MIN): Another newcomer to the list is Cousins. He’s got the best TD-INT ratio in the league, and he’s got the Vikings hot right now. He went toe-to-toe with Aaron Rodgers last week and came out with the W. Who knows how long Cousins can keep it going, but for now, he’s earned his spot here.
*On The Cusp: Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
