We’ve reached December and the NFL playoff race is really heating up. We’re well into the season and there still may be more question marks than certainties. This is the month where stars need to play their best brand of football, and teams will either make surges or fall off.

There’s quite a few teams to monitor this week. The biggest matchup goes down on Monday night, as the Patriots and Bills will finally meet up as they battle for the AFC East. Outside of them, I’ll have a close eye on Cincinnati, Miami, Washington and Denver. The Bengals looked like they took a huge step forward last week, while the other three teams are coming off of big wins and are trying to stir up their respective playoff races.

Last Week: 9-6 Straight Up, 6-9 ATS

Running Total: 117-61-1 Straight Up, 101-78 ATS

Thursday Night: Cowboys (-4.5) at Saints

News broke that Taysom Hill will start at QB for New Orleans tonight. We’ll see if Hill can add a dynamic element to an offense that badly needs a spark. The Saints are in a tailspin, and it doesn’t help that they’ll catch the Cowboys just as Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb return. With all of Dallas’ weapons back in the fold, I expect Dak to get it going and grab an important win.

The Pick: Cowboys 30-24

Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:

Vikings (-7) at Lions

The poor Detroit Lions just can’t get it done. After leading most of the game against Chicago, the Lions let the Bears march down the field on the final drive of the game to kick a game-winning field goal. At this point, it’s hard to imagine Detroit sneaking out a victory this season given the way they’ve lost games. Dan Campbell is pouring his heart into this group, but he’s also made some poor coaching decisions. That doesn’t bode well when your team isn’t very talented. Vikings roll in a big game for their playoff hopes.

The Pick: Vikings 34-21

Cardinals (-7.5) at Bears

Arizona hopes for the return of both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins this week. Getting their two offensive stars back will be huge as the Cardinals hope to make a push for the NFC’s top seed. The Bears looked hapless against the Lions on Thanksgiving, but grabbed a win, largely thanks to the fact that they were indeed playing the Lions. That effort won’t exactly get it done against the Cardinals.

The Pick: Cardinals 31-20

Bucs (-10.5) at Falcons

Tampa is starting to round into form, which is bad news for the rest of the league. It’s clear Tom Brady feels more comfortable when his safety blanket in Rob Gronkowski is healthy and playing. The Bucs might have the most talented roster in football when healthy, and this is a great time of the year to play their best football. The Falcons are staring down an outside shot of slipping into the Wild Card, making this a very important game for them. Atlanta isn’t a playoff team, in my opinion, and that shows this week as the Bucs pick up a road victory.

The Pick: Bucs 28-21

Colts (-9.5) at Texans

The Colts played Tampa tightly in a tough loss last week. They should bounce back with a divisional matchup against the lowly Texans. While Houston did catch Tennessee sleeping a few weeks back, this Indy team looks like the best team in the division right now, and they need wins to stay in the playoff race. Expect a big game from Jonathan Taylor.

The Pick: Colts 33-23

Eagles (-6.5) at Jets

A brutal loss for the Eagles last week against the Giants hindered their playoff odds. They’ll stick around at MetLife for a matchup with the Jets this week. Philly cannot afford to drop this one, and I don’t think they will. Jalen Hurts has a bounce back game, and the Eagles keep themselves in the conversation.

The Pick: Eagles 27-17

Chargers at Bengals (-3)

One of the more important games of the week as both of these teams are fighting for something. The Bengals might have established themselves as the team to beat in the AFC North after thumping the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Chargers suffered a bad loss at Denver that has them clinging to the last playoff spot in the AFC. This matchup comes at a bad time for Los Angeles. The Bengals looked scary good last week, and the Chargers are in the midst of a mid-season funk. Cincy picks up a crucial win.

The Pick: Bengals 34-31

Giants at Dolphins (-3)

Don’t look now, but Miami is alive in the AFC. The Dolphins have rattled off 4 straight wins and now sit just a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot. After last week’s win, Tua Tagovailoa boasts a starting record of 9-7 through his first 16 starts with a QB rating of 90. Not too shabby for a guy that many have already given up on. I’m not saying Miami is a threat just yet, but with a win this week over the Giants, they’ll continue to put pressure on the teams above them.

The Pick: Dolphins 26-23

Football Team at Raiders (-2)

What a win for the Raiders on Turkey Day. Derek Carr had the offense humming, and Vegas climbed back over 500. The Football team is hot right now as well. Taylor Heinicke is playing good football, and Washington currently occupies the final playoff slot in the NFC. During their win streak, we’ve seen glimpses of what many thought the Washington D could look like all year. This week will be a tough test in Vegas, however. In an important game for both teams, I’ll take the Raiders at home in a close one.

The Pick: Raiders 28-26

Ravens (-3.5) at Steelers

One of the biggest rivalries in football takes on new meaning this weekend in Pittsburgh. The AFC North is as murky as ever, and the Steelers have a chance to hand a huge loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh got rocked by Cincy last week, but Baltimore didn’t look much better, escaping with a win against Cleveland. Both of these teams’ QBs had some of their least inspiring performances of the year, and will need to be better in December. Ultimately, there’s just more talent on Baltimore’s roster, and Lamar is far more dynamic than Big Ben, which should make the difference.

The Pick: Ravens 28-24

Jaguars at Rams (-13)

The Rams need a bounce-back in the biggest way. They’ve dropped their last three, and catching Arizona in the NFC West seems like a tall task. Playing Jacksonville at home this week should help Matt Stafford’s group get back to form.

The Pick: Rams 35-24

49ers (-3.5) at Seahawks

San Francisco is probably the team that the top NFC groups don’t want to see Wild Card Weekend. The Niners are playing fantastic football, and they’re getting healthy too. The emergence of Deebo Samuel has transformed their offense, and Brandon Aiyuk is starting to put it together as well. Seattle is spiraling, and this feels like a lost season for them. While they’d love to play spoiler to their division rival, I can’t see them slowing down this 49ers squad.

The Pick: Niners 30-23

Sunday Night: Broncos at Chiefs (-10)

The Chiefs come off their bye week with a big divisional matchup against the Broncos. After besting the Chargers, Denver has a chance to move into 1st in the division if they can pick up a road win in KC. That may be a challenge given Andy Reid’s track record off the bye week. He has not only dominated post-bye week games, but he’s also owned the rest of the AFC West during his time in Kansas City. The Chiefs pick up a Sunday night victory, but it’s closer than you’d expect.

The Pick: Chiefs 27-23

Monday Night: Patriots at Bills (-3)

The game of the week goes down on Monday night. I don’t think anyone expected the Bills to be in a fight for the AFC East this late in the year. Here we are, however, and of course it’s the Patriots who are back. New England is red-hot, and Mac Jones has looked every bit the part at QB, gaining more confidence each week. Matt Judon has arguably been the best offseason pickup from any team this year, as he’s anchored a strong Pats defense. This is a prove-it game for Josh Allen. With both games still to be played in this season series, I think a split feels likely, with Buffalo grabbing the first one at home.

The Pick: Bills 33-30

MVP Race

1. Tom Brady (QB- TB): The race is beginning to really look like TB’s to lose. After leading another signature comeback victory against the Colts last week, Brady has established himself as the big favorite in this race.
2. Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Allen put together a signature performance on Thanksgiving to give the Bills a needed road win. His performance against New England this Monday will be his most important of the year.
3. Aaron Rodgers (QB- GB): We got a classic Aaron Rodgers performance against the Rams on Sunday afternoon. The Packers look like the team to beat in the NFL right now, and Rodgers is central to that.
4. Jonathan Taylor (RB- IND): Even with the loss last week, you can see the value Taylor brings. When Indy leaned on him, they had their most productive drives, they just happened to be facing Mr. Brady.
5. Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Stafford continues to slip in these rankings, though I’m not ready to count him out just yet. The Rams have a great chance to bounce back this week and carry that into the last portion of the year.

*On the Cusp: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Matt Judon