As we enter the 4th week of the NFL season, we’re going to get a good sense of what’s real and what’s not. Will the Rams ever lose with Matt Stafford? Are the Broncos, Panthers and Raiders legit? Are the Chiefs in real trouble? Time will tell, but another week in the same direction could be a solid indicator.
There are some strong matchups on the docket for week 4, highlighted by some divisional matchups and a Tom Brady homecoming on Sunday night.
Last Week: 12-4 Straight Up, 8-8 ATS
Running Total: 30-18 Straight Up, 23-25 ATS
Thursday Night: Jaguars at Bengals (-7.5)
The Jags on TNF early in the season is one of my favorite traditions. It’s one of those things you can just lock into the schedule before it even comes out. This year, they’ll get Joe Burrow and the Bengals. At 2-1, the Bengals have been one of the nicer surprises early on. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have clear chemistry and the defense has made enough plays to win. Even without Tee Higgins, I like Cincy to get it done again.
The Pick: Bengals 31-20
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Washington (-1.5) at Falcons
The loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick is showing, but the bigger issue in DC has been the defense. This looked like a top-tier unit heading into the season and it’s been anything but that. The big expectations for The Football Team are slowly slipping away early. Atlanta hasn’t been much better. They snuck out a win against the Giants, but their offense has really struggled. Matt Ryan has to find ways to continually get the ball in the hands of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts.
The Pick: Washington 23-20
Lions at Bears (-3)
Justin Fields’ first start couldn’t have gone much worse. Behind a horrible game plan and a struggling O-line, Fields was sacked 9 times and could barely net any positive yardage against the Browns. Meanwhile, the Lions continued to be the Lions, dropping a heartbreaker on the longest field goal in NFL history. Some day things will go their way, just probably not this season.
The Pick: Bears 27-23
Titans (-7.5) at Jets
It’s early, but it already looks like another nightmare season for the Jets. Zach Wilson is learning what quarterbacking in the NFL looks like very quickly. His decision making has been questionable, and he doesn’t have much around him. The Titans have picked up back to back W’s after a week 1 loss and look more like the team we expected from them. King Henry could make this one ugly.
The Pick: Titans 35-17
Browns (-2.5) at Vikings
The Vikings are probably the toughest team to assess through 3 weeks. They could just as easily be 3-0 as they are 1-2. Kirk Cousins has played tremendous football early on, and he deserves some praise. This offense is legit, they just need more from the other areas. The Browns made life miserable for the Bears last week and continue to look like an AFC power. This will be close, but I do think the Browns sneak one out on the road.
The Pick: Browns 38-35
Colts at Dolphins (-1.5)
Is this the Jacoby Brissett revenge game? Now thrust into the starting role in Miami, Brissett takes on his old squad, still searching for their first win. I want to see Jonathan Taylor more involved in this Indy offense. He excelled last season when he got his touches, but we’re seeing a trend where the Colts simply don’t feed him. He’s the most talented player on that side of the ball for Indianapolis. I expect them to factor him in more this week.
The Pick: Colts 27-21
Panthers at Cowboys (-4.5)
Sam Darnold has played solid football in Carolina. He’s got the Panthers out to a 3-0 start, including a divisional win over New Orleans. His crew runs into their toughest test yet when they head into Dallas. The Cowboys look like the clear leaders of the NFC East after demolishing Philly. Dak Prescott has been hyper-efficient, and he’s getting everybody involved. The big step forward from Trevon Diggs on defense is a huge development as well. These are two good football teams, but Dallas has the edge this week.
The Pick: Cowboys 34-28
Giants at Saints (-7.5)
The Saints bounced back with a nice win in New England. Jameis limited his mistakes, while the defense pounced on the one’s made by Mac Jones. The Giants just continue to be on the wrong side of the W column. It’s been a rough few years, and I’m not sure when things will figure themselves out. On the bright side, Saquon looked a little more like himself last week. Saints take this one relatively easily.
The Pick: Saints 28-17
Chiefs (-7.5) at Eagles
Are the kings of the AFC in serious danger? That’s been the big question of the past week after the Chiefs dropped to 1-2 following a loss to the Chargers. This is the first time in 6 years that the Chiefs have been under 500. Turnovers have been the main issue, but the defense hasn’t been much better. There’s still reason to believe KC rights the ship, but the concerns are there. Philly just got destroyed, and I’m not sure they could pick a worse time to run into this Kansas City team.
The Pick: Chiefs 37-30
Texans at Bills (-16.5)
In one of the larger spreads you’ll see this season, Buffalo is a massive favorite against Houston. Until Tyrod Taylor returns, the Texans are going to have a lot of problems. Davis Mills could have something down the road, but for now, he is clearly not an NFL starting quarterback. Buffalo has put the hurt on two straight opponents, as Josh Allen is getting back into his 2020 groove. I don’t think this one will be very close.
The Pick: Bills 38-20
Cardinals at Rams (-4.5)
For the second week in a row I’m circling the Rams’ game as the game of the week. After taking down Tom Brady, the LA crew hosts Kyler Murray and the unbeaten Cardinals. This is a game that could have massive implications on the division race, and potentially home field advantage in the playoffs. Murray and Matthew Stafford look like the top two MVP candidates early on. This game should feature something for everyone, and could tell us a lot about which squad is the true team to beat. For now, I’ll go with the home team by a touchdown.
The Pick: Rams 34-27
Ravens at Broncos (-1)
Another great afternoon matchup goes down in Denver. Teddy Bridgewater is playing turnover free football and his defense is doing the rest. The Broncos haven’t played any high-caliber opponents yet, so Baltimore is a great test for them. Is this just the year for the Ravens? A week after a gutsy 4th down conversion following a Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumble, Justin Tucker hit a game winning field goal to beat the Lions. That field goal also happened to be the longest one in NFL history. We throw the term “GOAT” around a lot. Tucker might actually be one of the true GOATs of his position. I’m riding with the Ravens.
The Pick: Ravens 28-24
Steelers at Packers (-7)
The Steelers’ offense has really struggled to get much going this season. Big Ben is a step behind where he once was, and without TJ Watt wrecking games on defense, it’s been a rough 2 week stretch for this team. TJ’s status is up in the air for this weekend, and Pittsburgh will need him against Aaron Rodgers. Surprisingly, the week 1 effort from the Packers might not be who they really are. They’ve bounced back with two wins and Rodgers looks like himself again.
The Pick: Packers 31-20
Sunday Night: Bucs (-7) at Patriots
Every now and then there’s a matchup where the actual game feels irrelevant. I think that’s what we’re getting Sunday night when Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski return to New England. The two Patriot legends will take on their old squad in front of a crowd that misses them both dearly. Simply put, Tom is winning the break-up. The fans are going to shower their former stars with love no matter what happens. This is probably a good thing, as I don’t think the Patriots’ fans will have much else to cheer about.
The Pick: Bucs 34-20
Monday Night: Raiders at Chargers (-3.5)
If my other picks hit, then the Raiders will enter Monday night as one of the lone unbeaten teams left. If Carolina, Arizona, and Denver all lose, that leaves only Vegas and the Rams with perfect records. To keep pace with Los Angeles, Derek Carr and his team will have to win a tough one. The Chargers have been very impressive out of the gate, and they look like they’ve learned how to close games. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams deserve to be discussed among the league’s best WR duos. I see a shootout in LA, ending with another unbeaten falling.
The Pick: Chargers 38-35
MVP Race
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Through 3 weeks the top spot goes to Stafford. He was fantastic in a huge win over the Bucs and has developed unbelievable chemistry with Cooper Kupp. He’s my frontrunner as of today.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): Murray isn’t far behind. He’s made a few more mistakes than Stafford, but is still leading his team to wins and playing an electrifying brand of football.
- Derek Carr (QB- LV): Carr is also enjoying one of the best starts of his career. He leads the league in passing yards by over 100 yards, and has orchestrated two gutsy overtime wins.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF) Allen finally makes his debut on this list. His past two starts have been much better than his first. He was phenomenal against Washington last week and looks like the guy we saw last season.
- Teddy Bridgewater (QB- DEN): Teddy’s efficiency has been remarkable to start the year. He’s making no mistakes and playing very clean football. If the Broncos beat some of the league’s better teams, you can bet Teddy will get more attention.
