Week 6 in the NFL is shrouded in controversy. Leaked emails and messages from Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden have taken center stage, and opened up a league wide conversation about respect, privacy and integrity. Gruden’s actions have sparked serious debate on social media and it likely isn’t going away any time soon.
When you shift the focus to football, you’ll find some pretty juicy matchups this week. The Chargers and Ravens battle for a chance to solidify themselves in the AFC conversation. The Browns could hand the Cardinals their first loss of the season, and the Bills face another primetime road test in Nashville. I’ve had a few good weeks in a row on my picks now, and I like my chances to make it three in a row.
Last Week: 12-4 Straight Up, 12-4 ATS
Running Total: 54-25 Straight Up, 43-36 ATS
Thursday Night: Bucs (-7) at Eagles
Tom Brady continues to solidify that he isn’t going away anytime soon. In a dazzling performance that featured 5 TDs, Brady stuck it to the Miami Dolphins, specifically finding Antonio Brown for some highlight plays. The Eagles pulled out a big win as well, taking care of Carolina. Jalen Hurts was practically non-existent for 75% of the game before turning it on in the final quarter. When he utilizes his talents as a runner as well as a passer it can be a difficult thing to stop. The Linc will be rowdy, but I expect Tampa to get it done on the road in a close one.
The Pick: Bucs 31-26
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Jaguars
The NFL just keeps sending the finest talent across the pond. After a riveting Jets/Falcons matchup, London gets to see two teams with a combined record of 1-9 on the season. Miami might be the year’s biggest disappointment so far, while just about everything has gone wrong with the Urban Meyer experiment in Jacksonville. The Miami defense has really regressed, but something they did really last year was force turnovers. They can recover some of that magic against turnover prone rookie Trevor Lawrence, and it makes the difference.
The Pick: Dolphins 27-21
Texans at Colts (-9.5)
After posting one of the worst stat-lines we’ve seen in recent history two weeks ago, Davis Mills actually bounced back with a pretty solid game against the Patriots last week. The Texans fell a little flat late, as the Pats were able to come back and secure a win that they desperately needed. The Colts know a thing or two about that as well. They jumped the Ravens early, and then fell apart as Lamar Jackson tore them up in the 2nd half with the help of Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown. The Colts are too talented to sit where they currently do, especially with the AFC South in reach. They secure the divisional win at home this week.
The Pick: Colts 30-23
Packers (-4.5) at Bears
The Packers snuck out of Cincy with a win in about the slimmest margin possible. Mason Crosby went through all of the emotions in a span of about half an hour, after missing multiple game winners, only to knock his final attempt through the uprights. They’ll need to be sharper as they head into Chicago. The Bears grabbed a big victory over the Raiders as Justin Fields tossed his first TD pass. Fields is going to be the guy in Chicago for the foreseeable future. If he can take down Rodgers in their first showdown, the Bears faithful will love him even more. But, in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. Rodgers shines and the Packers win yet another one against the Bears.
The Pick: Packers 34-27
Chiefs (-6.5) at Football Team
I don’t even know what to make of the Chiefs right now. There is way too much talent on this roster for them to drop games at the rate they are. They have faced some of the league’s best in their first few games, but they are also expected to be contenders. The defense jumps out as the problem, but turnovers are truly what has killed this team. After 4 turnovers against the Chargers, KC coughed it up 4 more times against Buffalo. When you play top-tier opponents, that simply won’t do. Washington isn’t the challenge that the Bills may have been, but if they can’t get Terry McLaurin and co. off the field, it doesn’t seem to matter much. I like the Chiefs to secure a win, but it’s hard to expect them to cover right now.
The Pick: Chiefs 38-34
Vikings (-1.5) at Panthers
The Vikings are emerging as the new favorites for the “Hardest Team to Figure Out” award. Week to week, you just don’t know what type of performance to expect from Minnesota. A miraculous last second drive saved them after nearly choking the game away to Detroit last week. The Panthers, on the other hand, probably feel like they did give one away against the Eagles. Sam Darnold got bit by the turnover bug, and that’s not going to work for the Panthers to win games. With Christian McCaffrey listed as a 50/50 shot to play, Darnold has to be smart against the Vikings D. Getting DJ Moore involved will be essential, and I think that Carolina finds a way at home.
The Pick: Panthers 26-23
Chargers at Ravens (-3)
Probably the best game on the docket this week, these 4-1 teams will duke it out for an early edge in the AFC playoff race. Two of the top candidates for MVP face off as Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson will likely trade punches in this one. Both are coming off of their best games of the season, and are playing at extremely high levels. Baltimore feels like a team playing with fate on their side this season. They have had 3 crazy wins through their first five games, and they haven’t seen a deficit they can’t overcome. With the home crowd behind them, they pull off another one on Sunday.
The Pick: Ravens 35-32
Bengals (-3.5) at Lions
Poor Dan Campbell. Just when he thought he had his first win of the season, the Lions went all Lions on us and broke his heart. The press conference from Campbell was incredibly emotional. As a Lions fan, you have to respect how much your coach cares. The fact is, right now, Detroit just isn’t talented enough to compete with most teams in the NFL. One of those teams is probably the Bengals, who were two missed field goals away from stunning Green Bay and moving to 4-1. Joe Burrow has his weapons. When he’s playing well this is a legitimate top-tier offense in the NFL. Keeping pace with Cleveland and Baltimore will be tough, but a win this week keeps the conversation alive a little longer.
The Pick: Bengals 30-24
Rams (-10.5) at Giants
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team deal with more injuries at skill positions in a single game than the Giants last week. Already down Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, New York lost Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay during their loss to Dallas. It’s pretty hard to beat teams when you’re down 5 of your best offensive weapons. The emergence of Kadarius Toney in the face of these injuries has been fantastic, but it won’t matter much against the Rams. Sean McVay’s group picked up a big Thursday night divisional win, and coming off the mini-bye, they should take it to the banged up Giants.
The Pick: Rams 34-20
Cardinals at Browns (-3)
Another contender for game of the week takes place in Cleveland. The Browns gagged away a win last week after trading blows with the Chargers. Baker Mayfield is taking a lot of heat right now, and I’m not sure how much of it is deserved. One thing that is certain though; this team needs to get the ball to Odell Beckham Jr. The Cardinals continue to roll, remaining the league’s lone unbeaten team. Kyler Murray has slowed down a little in the past few weeks, but he still appears to have taken a massive step forward, and Arizona has solidified themselves as a true contender in the NFC. I do think the Browns put an end to the undefeated season on Sunday, however.
The Pick: Browns 38-35
Raiders at Broncos (-3.5)
It’s been a whirlwind of a week for the Raiders. After getting no offense against the Bears, football took a backseat as the Jon Gruden drama escalated all the way to him resigning. There are a lot of emotions flying around Vegas right now, and it’s hard to imagine they’ve been properly able to prepare for a divisional matchup on the road. In a game where football may be a secondary storyline, I’ll take the Broncos at home.
The Pick: Broncos 24-17
Cowboys (-4) at Patriots
The Cowboys might be… legit? It seems we get fooled into this every year, but something seems a little different this time around. There’s way more balance than we’ve seen in some time in Dallas. Dak is back, and the Zeke/Tony Pollard backfield is running wild behind the O-Line. The Patriots have struggled to generate much of anything this season. Breakout star Trevon Diggs should be chomping at the bit for a chance against rookie QB Mac Jones. Cowboys nab this one on the road.
The Pick: Cowboys 31-20
Sunday Night: Seahawks at Steelers (-4.5)
This game had a lot more intrigue when Russell Wilson was healthy. Without their star QB, Seattle turns the ball over to Geno Smith for primetime. Smith didn’t look awful when he took over against the Rams, but he’ll get a tough test with the Pittsburgh defense having prepped for him all week. I can’t see this being one of the most explosive games of the week, but it should offer some truly gritty football for those who like that style of play.
The Pick: Steelers 23-20
Monday Night: Bills (-4.5) at Titans
The Bills may have solidified themselves as the Super Bowl favorites after thrashing the Chiefs in KC. Josh Allen continues to play at a high level, and targets like Dawson Knox and Emmanuel Sanders are giving him weapons outside of Stefon Diggs. The defense is opportunistic, and when they do turn teams over, the offense makes it count. Tennessee is an enigma. There’s so much talent, yet it always just seems to come down to Derrick Henry. His workload this season will be historic, but he may be special enough to live up to the challenge. This should be an entertaining game, but ultimately, it’s hard to pick against Buffalo right now.
The Pick: Bills 35-30
MVP Race:
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Yes, Brady is back on top. Many of the young guys are getting the love right now, but it’s Tommy B who deserves this spot right now. He’s got the Bucs at 4-1, is 1st in passing yards, 2nd in TDs, and he’s only thrown 2 picks. I don’t know how long he can hold off the new era, but for now Brady is still king.
- Justin Herbert (QB- LAC): Herbert has had a few fantastic performances in a row. He cooked the Browns defense for whatever he wanted, and more importantly, he continues to win close games for a franchise that has been plagued by close loses.
- Lamar Jackson (QB- BAL): It’s impossible to ignore how good Jackson has been in the past few weeks. His 2nd half performance against the Colts was legendary. Jackson looks more comfortable as a passer right now, and if he’s a legitimate option through the air and on the ground, watch out.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Allen is slinging the ball right now. He made deep balls look easy against the Chiefs, and he’s playing hyper-efficiently. He should continue to feast on an easy schedule in the AFC East to put up some monster numbers.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): Murray dropping to 5 this week isn’t a knock on him as much as it is a nod to how well the 4 guys ahead of him have played in the past weeks. Murray has been spectacular, and he’s the only guy on this list without a loss.
