As week 8 dawns upon us, the big question on many NFL fans’ minds is… “What the **** is up with the Kansas City Chiefs??” A shocking 27-3 blowout loss to the Tennessee Titans has the back to back AFC champs under 500 yet again, and this time the issues are far more glaring. The defense continues to give up points at will, while the offense has been hit by one of the worst turnover bugs I’ve ever seen. Andy Reid’s teams in KC have never turned the ball over more than 20 times in a single season before. If the pace continues, Kansas City will cough it up more than 40 times this year, just a remarkable stat.
While the Chiefs stumble, other surprises like the Bengals have been more pleasant. It’s the beauty of the NFL. You just never know what you’ll see from September-February. Let’s take a look at the week 8 slate, and see if we can’t make some sense of all this clutter.
Last Week: 9-4 Straight Up, 8-5 ATS
Running Total: 72-34 Straight Up, 58-48 ATS
Thursday Night: Packers at Cardinals (-6)
The teams with the two longest winning streaks in the league meet up for a Thursday night showdown. Both squads come in hobbled, as the Packers are down most of their receivers, while the Cardinals have just lost JJ Watt for the year. Arizona continues to dominate opponents behind Kyler Murray and a resurgent defense. Over in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers is doing his thing again, as he slowly crawls into the thick of the MVP race. A signature road win without his main weapon goes a long way toward getting him back towards the top.
The Pick: Packers 31-28
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Dolphins at Bills (-13.5)
The Dolphins scrapped their way back into the game against Atlanta last week, but it wasn’t enough. Meanwhile, the Bills were resting up and getting healthy. This one could get as ugly as the 1st time these teams faced off this year.
The Pick: Bills 35-13
Panthers at Falcons (-3)
The Panthers have fallen out of relevancy with astounding speed. Sam Darnold has regressed significantly in the past few weeks, and the offense continues to miss Christian McCaffrey. Atlanta sneakily sits at 500 on the year, and they need to continue to beat inferior teams if they wish to stay in the hunt. They’ll get it done Sunday (And the Braves will too #BravesIn5).
The Pick: Falcons 24-21
Eagles (-3.5) at Lions
I’ve been riding with the Eagles quite a bit this season, but I’m slowly starting to give up on this group. They looked lifeless in Vegas this week, which was a game I thought they could surprise a lot of folks in and win. Miles Sanders won’t go this week, further hindering the offense. The Lions haven’t won yet, but they continue to be competitive, giving the Rams a real run for their money last week. Dan Campbell has his guys playing so hard. Detroit will not go winless this season, and they finally get into the W column here in week 8.
The Pick: Lions 27-24
Titans (-1.5) at Colts
Two of last week’s most impressive teams square off in a huge game for divisional implications. The Colts really need a home win against the Titans to keep pace in the AFC South. If Tennessee snags this one on the road, they’ll hold a 3 game lead with a direct win. Expect both Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor to have big games in this one, with Henry and his side getting the best of Indy.
The Pick: Titans 31-28
Rams (-14.5) at Texans
After a scare against Detroit, the Rams face another bottom feeder in Houston. Racking up these wins will be critical as Los Angeles contends for the NFC’s top seed and chases Arizona. Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp make easy work of one of the NFL’s worst.
The Pick: Rams 34-17
Bengals (-10.5) at Jets
We might finally be able to crown the Bengals as legit. A lot of people questioned the Ja’Marr Chase pick and… well… turns out he was the right choice. Chase is enjoying the greatest start to a rookie year from a WR in history, and he’s running away with the ROTY award. It’s clear that his connection with Joe Burrow has translated to the NFL, and the two should have another big day against the Jets.
The Pick: Bengals 30-17
Steelers at Browns (-3.5)
Signs are currently pointing towards Baker Mayfield returning on Sunday to take on the Steelers. Cleveland’s offense hummed along with Case Keenum and D’Ernest Johnson last week, but no one can argue that having Mayfield and Nick Chubb back will help even more. This feels like a very physical and gritty game on the way. TJ Watt won Pittsburgh the game against Seattle two weeks ago, and I have a gut feeling he’s going to do it again in this one. I’ll go with the Steelers in a mild upset.
The Pick: Steelers 23-20
49ers (-3.5) at Bears
The wheels are falling off for both of these teams. As division rivals begin to pull away, both the Niners and Bears are struggling to keep pace, and both face situations at QB. I believe in both Trey Lance and Justin Fields, so it may be time for both of these groups to start looking at finding guys for the future that can protect and compliment their cornerstones. For this week, I’ll go with the Niners behind a big game from Deebo Samuel.
The Pick: 49ers 26-20
Jaguars at Seahawks (-3.5)
It says a lot about the gap between Russell Wilson and Geno Smith that the Seahawks are only 3.5 point home favorites against the Jags. Geno cannot get anything going for Seattle, and the offense has completely stalled since Russ went down. Tyler Lockett’s disappearance is hurting this group, and he clearly doesn’t have the chemistry with Smith. The Seahawks get this one done, but it ain’t pretty.
The Pick : Seahawks 24-20
Patriots at Chargers (-5.5)
This game off the bye week for the Chargers is a big one. LA is in a great position to take the AFC West this season, and they can’t afford any slip ups against weaker teams. The Pats have made big strides in the past few weeks, but they still aren’t near a playoff team, in my opinion. Justin Herbert has had a lot of time to think about his blowout loss to Baltimore, and this is a great opportunity to get back on track.
The Pick: Chargers 31-24
Football Team at Broncos (-3)
I don’t want to say that Denver’s fall from the top was predictable… but it isn’t super surprising. The Broncos are not a top-tier team in the NFL, and they benefitted from a very easy schedule early. A good matchup with Washington could help them get back to 500, but I don’t think it puts them back in the playoff conversation.
The Pick: Broncos 26-23
Bucs (-5) at Saints
Tampa Tom continues to roll. Brady has the Bucs offense firing right now, and the Bucs currently look like the team to beat across the league, in my opinion. With that said, this is a group that we often saw slip up last year in the regular season, and drop some games they shouldn’t have. One team they really had issues with was the Saints. Though the got them in the Playoffs, Tampa struggled to find any rhythm against New Orleans in both regular season matchups. I think the Saints gameplan well again, and steal one from the division leaders.
The Pick: Saints 28-24
Sunday Night: Cowboys (-2.5) at Vikings
Dallas got to rest up following their thrilling OT win in New England, and now they head to Minneapolis for a primetime matchup. This should be a great test for breakout star CB Trevon Diggs. Diggs has transformed into one of the league’s best ballhawks, but he also gambles a ton which in turn creates some big play opportunities. With Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen lining up at WR, that chess match will be worth monitoring. On the other side of the ball, look for Dak Prescott to keep finding his star skill players. The trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott should make enough plays to get this done for Dallas.
The Pick: Cowboys 34-30
Monday Nights: Giants at Chiefs (-10)
I think this is the first week where any and all criticisms of the Chiefs are completely valid. Through 7 weeks, Kansas City has been a bad football team. They can’t stop anybody, and the offense turns the ball over at such an alarming rate that it’s almost expected at this point. Tennessee was the culmination of every nightmare Chiefs’ fans have been having. They should be able to benefit from a favorable home matchup against a bad Giants team to get back on track, but even if they win big here, I’m not sure I can be tricked into believing this team is back just yet.
The Pick: Chiefs 34-26
MVP Race:
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Brady continues to dominate. He leads the league in passing yards and passing TDs, and Tampa continues to win. The fact that he is still +700 right now is astounding to me.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): If I had one word to describe Murray’s style of play, I think I’d go with dazzling. You just never know what to expect when he drops back, and he has an innate ability to make positive plays appear out of thin air. Now that his defense has matched his level of play, the Cardinals are serious Super Bowl contenders.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): There’s no hotter combo in Hollywood right now than Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The pair look like a match made in heaven, and both continue to elevate the play of the other. I expected Stafford to have a monster year this year, but I’m not sure I saw this high of a level through 7 weeks.
- Dak Prescott (QB- DAL): Coming off of a bye, there’s not much of a change for Dak. He’s been sensational this year, and I expect that to continue as the year rolls on.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Similar to Prescott, I’m not going to bump Allen simply for being on bye. He continues to play at a high level, and the Bills continue to blow teams out. That’s a great recipe for Buffalo.
On The Cusp: Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow
