Whew! Quite a bit happened as the trade deadline came and went, and we can officially gear up for the latter half of the 2021 season. Von Miller was the biggest name to be shipped, but we also saw plenty of drama in Cleveland, where Odell Beckham’s days appear to be numbered. I don’t want to go into great detail about my thoughts on the Henry Ruggs situation. It’s tragic for a number of reasons, and I hope that the family and friends of the victim are working through this tough time and receiving an outpouring of support.
Last week was one of my strongest ever against the spread. We’ll see how long I can keep that momentum rolling, but this week’s slate offers quite a few interesting matchups. I’ll be closely watching New England, Kansas City, and Cleveland, in particular this week. Each of these teams sits in the muddled middle of the AFC, and somebody has to separate themselves soon. This week could give us some clues as to who that will be.
Last Week: 11-4 Straight Up, 12-3 ATS
Running Total: 83-38 Straight Up, 70-51 ATS
Thursday Night: Jets at Colts (-10.5)
A 10.5 point spread for the Jets? Just another sign of disrespect towards the world’s greatest QB, Mike White. Obstacles and doubters are nothing new to this legend, and he gets another chance to prove that tonight. While I’m all for some football folklore… I do think the Colts win this game behind Jonathan Taylor, but it’ll be closer than we think.
The Pick: Colts 28-20
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Texans at Dolphins (-6.5)
How do you even pick a winner in this one? These two teams have been linked quite a bit this season due to some Deshaun Watson rumors. With those officially behind us now as the trade deadline passes, both of these teams can start officially focusing on next season. Miami has been far more disappointing than Houston in terms of expectations. They finally put together a game where we see what could’ve been.
The Pick: Dolphins 30-20
Broncos at Cowboys (-10)
How about that performance from Cooper Rush. In the week of the backup QB, Rush shined on Sunday Night. He’ll pass the reigns back over to Dak Prescott this week, as Dallas continues to coast towards an NFC East title. The Cowboys have fixed several key issues from last year, and are looking like one of the true contenders in the league. They take care of the Broncos at home.
The Pick: Cowboys 34-24
Vikings at Ravens (-5.5)
The Vikings continue to be on the bad side of some wild finishes. An illegally called (and granted) timeout, allowed for Zeke Elliott to get the extra 5 yards he needed for a first down run, which led to a game winning score, instead of a likely OT period. Meanwhile, Baltimore is a team that has been on the positive side of some nutty finishes. If we believe in trends, then history tells us to expect a wild Baltimore victory in this one.
The Pick: Ravens 38-35
Patriots (-4) at Panthers
Mac Jones is starting to play some good football. After stringing together a few wins in a row, Jones has New England in the playoff picture, and he easily has looked like the most comfortable of the rookie QBs. A lot of that is due to situation, but he still has to perform. This is an interesting game to analyze, as it’s been challenging to get a read on both of these squads. They have some impressive wins, and some forgettable losses. Christian McCaffrey’s return from IR, and a big play from former Pat Stephon Gilmore in a revenge game, make the difference as Carolina eeks out a home win.
The Pick: Panthers 27-24
Bills (-14.5) at Jaguars
The Bills’ gauntlet of a schedule continues with a road test against the 1-win Jaguars. I know that the NFL has a system in place to set schedules. I like the system they use. However, I don’t know if I can ever recall a former division champ being handed this easy of a slate the following year. The cards have fallen into place for Buffalo to roll to home field advantage, it’s just on them to capitalize.
The Pick: Bills 30-14
Browns at Bengals (-2.5)
Who knows what we’re going to see from the Browns this weekend. The off-field OBJ-Baker Mayfield drama is a disappointing cherry-on-top of a disappointing start to the season. This team is way too talented to sit where they do in the AFC, let alone to be dealing with internal issues. Cincy is all of a sudden a must win game, and Cleveland has a great opportunity to catch them following a loss to the Jets. How the Browns respond this week may seal their fate for the rest of the year. I’ll bet on Baker to make a statement Sunday.
The Pick: Browns 26-23
Falcons at Saints (-6)
Trevor Siemian was yet another backup QB that stepped up to the plate last week. He kept his composure and managed to do just enough to upend Tom Brady and the Bucs. He’ll likely pass things off to Taysom Hill this week, but I think either guy is capable of getting it done against Atlanta. Sean Payton has to be the pick for Coach of the Year right now, and he’ll rack up another win against a division rival this weekend.
The Pick: Saints 27-22
Raiders (-2) at Giants
Off-field drama aside, the Raiders have a great opportunity to take care of business against a weaker team. Another win could put Vegas in a great position heading into the back end of the season. Tyreek Hill was able to tear apart the Giants on underneath routes, and I think Derek Carr will look to Hunter Renfrow often to try and do the same.
The Pick: Raiders 31-23
Chargers (-1.5) at Eagles
All of a sudden, this game is a massive one for the Chargers. Back to back losses have them behind Vegas and only a half game in front of both Denver and KC. Justin Herbert needs a big performance, and he needs to get back to finding Mike Williams. Williams was instrumental in the early portion of the season. He’s been nearly non-existent in the last two losses. The Eagles just steamrolled Detroit. They’ll come into this one with some swagger. We’ll see how Herbert responds.
The Pick: Chargers 33-30
Packers at Chiefs (-7.5)
Just when I think the Chiefs are staring down an imminent loss… Aaron Rodgers tests positive for Covid and new life is breathed into KC’s season for about the millionth time this year. I have fallen into this trap with Kansas City repeatedly this year, and for the first time, I’m officially not buying in. I still think this team can turn their season around, but after last week’s performance against the Giants, how can I possibly pick them, even if Rodgers is out? The defense has been fine against lower-tier offenses, but now it appears the offense is broken. Last week was the most the Chiefs have punted in a game all year, and they added two more turnovers to their insane yearly total. Until we see proof that this offense is back, I just can’t trust the class of the AFC for the past two years.
The Pick: Packers 27-24
Cardinals (-1) at 49ers
How will the Cardinals respond to their first loss of the year? You may remember last year Arizona came out of the gates hot, only to falter down the stretch. This year’s group is a better team, and I expect them to firmly be in discussion for the Super Bowl in a crowded NFC. It’ll be essential to win these games in the hunt for home field. Kyler makes sure they don’t slip up twice in a row.
The Pick: Cardinals 31-27
Sunday Night: Titans at Rams (-7.5)
You really can’t draw this up worse for Tennessee. Just as they lose their generational running back, the team they face next goes out an adds a generational pass-rusher to an already vaunted defense. We are going to learn a ton about Ryan Tannehill for the rest of this season. Defenses are going to completely change their schemes against the Titans with the fear of Derrick Henry gone. I think he’s up for the challenge, but maybe not against LA.
The Pick: Rams 34-26
Monday Night: Bears at Steelers (-6.5)
The Steelers continue to lean on their defense to grind out victories. So far it’s working, and I think that formula can keep them in the W column against Chicago. Justin Fields continues to face some elite pass rushes, and this may be his biggest test yet. I’m not sure he’s up for the challenge just yet.
The Pick: Steelers 22-17
MVP Race
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Stafford dethrones Brady in my rankings following another crisp outing. He continues to cook defenses to the tune of the league’s highest QBR. His time in Los Angeles has met every expectation to this point, and he has the Rams in position to contend for a Super Bowl.
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): It wasn’t a bad effort from Brady last week, but I think it surprised everyone to see him throw a pick-six in crunch time when we’ve grown so accustomed to the game-winning drives. Even so, I think both Tom and Tampa are going to be just fine.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): Despite finally taking a loss, Murray still boasts some of the most impressive QB numbers this year on a division leading team. As we enter the 2nd half of the season, monitoring his consistency will be a key storyline.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Allen continues to put up big numbers against inferior teams. He’s doing exactly what a franchise QB should do against bad defenses. I will not be surprised at all if by the end of the year this is his award to lose.
- Aaron Rodgers (QB- GB): If you didn’t learn how valuable Rodgers is to this team after a victory against unbeaten Arizona without all of his receivers, then consider this week to be another testament. We’ll truly learn just how much he means to Green Bay’s offense when Jordan Love takes on Kansas City.
*On The Cusp: Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derek Carr
