The longest week of the NFL season is finally coming to a close. Of the fourteen teams qualified for the postseason, twelve match up on Saturday or Sunday. The reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers earned a bye week. Everybody else is fighting to keep the dream alive of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on the world’s greatest stage.
The Campus Cover guys (Cody and myself) feel an obligation to prepare you and your wallets ahead of the weekend’s action. Use this as your guide through the mayhem and madness of the NFL Wild Card.
*Cody was kind enough to lend the written word in discussing every home team’s chances. His work is italicized*
SATURDAY
#7 Indianapolis Colts (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS)
@ #2 Buffalo Bills (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)
Moneyline: Indianapolis (+240) | Buffalo (-295)
Spread: IND +6.5 (-114) | BUF -6.5 (-106)
Total: o51 (-110) | u51 (-110)
Location: Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Game Info: January 9, 2021, 1:05 p.m. ET | CBS
The path to victory for Buffalo is simple. Keep doing what you have been doing for the past month. Josh Allen and the Bills have been destroying everyone in their path since their bye week, winning their last six games all by double digits. Just as every game this year, Buffalo will have to win on the back of Josh Allen. With Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott leading the way, the third year QB has somehow developed from a relatively mediocre QB with some promising tools to playing like a top-tier playmaker.
Will this play continue or will he crumble under pressure? With the talent and coaching staff around him, mixed with his personality and development, I’d be willing to bet that the Buffalo offense doesn’t have too many issues scoring. Allen will just need to avoid back-breaking turnovers and play his game. If this happens, it doesn’t matter what the Colts offense does.
The Philip Rivers Experiment provided a rollercoaster of legitimacy for the Indianapolis Colts in 2020. While the offense lost its ability to push the ball downfield, a potent game manager placed the Colts in a spot to pounce. Because of stand-out defensive performances from the likes of DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard, it lifted a burden to succeed off of the offense’s back.
Sticking to their guns, the only path for the Colts to truly prosper on Saturday is from defensive force. Whether it’s creating turnovers and silly mistakes from Allen, or if it’s as simple as taking away Stefan Diggs and the deep-ball passing attack, the fate of the season lies where it has all year for Indy: in the hands of the defense.
#6 Los Angeles Rams (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS)
@ #3 Seattle Seahawks (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS)
Moneyline: Los Angeles (+148) | Seattle (-176)
Spread: LAR +3 (-102) | SEA -3 (-120)
Total: o42.5 (-104) | u42.5 (-118)
Location: Lumen Stadium, Seattle, Washington
Game Info: January 9, 2021, 4:40 p.m. ET | FOX
The key is simple here: Let. Russ. Cook. The season started off strong under this mantra and the Seahawks offense seemed unstoppable in the early portion of the season. Down the stretch, the offense seems to have faltered behind the poor play by Russell Wilson. However, the playcalling is partly to blame for this. Schottenheimer has resorted back to calling an exorbitant amount of early down runs, something they were avoiding early in the year. This has put Russ in bad situations and caused his numbers to plummet.
Now you’re playing a Rams team that either will have a QB coming off of thumb surgery or a former AAF QB with one career start. Either way, the Rams offense will likely not be lighting up the scoreboard. If you let Russell Wilson do his thing, you should be able to put up points. If you’re the Seahawks this week, pass early and pass often.
As Cody hinted, the path to success for the Rams is based almost solely on who is under center Saturday afternoon. Listed as “limited” this week in practice, if Goff is able to take snaps, the Rams very well could be in business. As any starting QB should, Goff runs McVay’s offense much better than Wolford, and while a week of first-team reps maybe changes things for the backup, it’s not enough. It’s certainly not enough for a playoff game against a division rival.
Let’s just say it IS Wolford we see on Saturday. He’s mobile, but not nearly as mobile as the guy on the other sideline. He’s accurate, but not nearly as accurate as the other guy. That’s the thing. Wolford possesses true qualities of an NFL caliber quarterback, but on a limited basis. Once again, the best opportunity for Los Angeles to survive and advance is based solely on the defense’s capability.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense isn’t perfect. Exploit those imperfections, create turnovers and maybe, just maybe, you’re on your way to keeping the scoreboard within reach for the inexperienced QB. If you like LA’s chances, maybe sprinkle something on a cover, or go for it all and reward yourself with a Rams ML.
#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)
@ #4 Washington Football Team (7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS)
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-375) | Washington (+300)
Spread: TB -7.5 (-110) | WSH +7.5 (-110)
Total: o44.5 (-110) | u44.5 (-110)
Location: FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Game Info: January 9, 2021, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
Being the biggest underdog of the weekend is not a very favorable situation to be in. The hope for Washington is that their strong defensive line, that has carried them all season, can make life a living hell for Tom Brady on Saturday. Bruce Arians’ offense relies on a lot of vertical routes that take time to develop, while the strength of Washington is their pass rush. If Chase Young and company can get to Brady, they may have a chance to hang around.
We know the Washington offense has its struggles and Alex Smith is not near 100% right now. In combination with a great defensive performance, Washington will need Smith to take care of the ball and move the offense efficiently enough to score about 21 points. If they can hold Tampa and be effective on offense, Washington may have a shot. The offensive mismatch they should exploit will have to be with Logan Thomas, JD McKissic, and Antonio Gibson. The weak point on this Tampa defense is the amount of receptions they have allowed to opposing tight ends and running backs. No other team in the league has allowed as many RB receptions as Tampa, so look for Ron Rivera and Alex Smith to look towards their RB options a lot. If the defense and offense can both step up, there may be hope for Washington.
For the first time in his twenty-one year career, Tom Brady is visiting an opponent in the first round of the playoffs. The legendary quarterback has played in four Wild Card weekends, but never once heading the road squad. A year of new beginnings for TB12, just add this scenario to the list.
Regardless of the stadium, Brady and the Bucs storm into FedExField as favorites. Playoff Tom Brady is a different animal and the same beast. Not that anybody knows what that means, but it’s why Tampa wins AND covers -7.5. Better weapons all across the board, the only tough test is getting past the dangerous pass rush of Chase Young. If Brady gets rid of the ball quickly, the Bucs defense contains the run, this could be over quickly. The biggest concern here is a backdoor cover with the spread a half point larger than a TD.
SUNDAY
#5 Baltimore Ravens (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)
@ #4 Tennessee Titans (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS)
Moneyline: Baltimore (-184) | Tennessee (+154)
Spread: BAL -3 (-128) | TEN +3 (-104)
Total: o54.5 (-112) | u54.5 (-108)
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Game Info: January 10, 2021, 1:05 p.m. ET | ABC
While Tennessee has seemingly had Baltimore’s number in recent matchups, Baltimore has truly beat themselves by abandoning the game plan and getting away from their run game. This Tennessee defense has talent but this year has not been scary in the slightest. The Titans will want to get an early lead and once again cause the Ravens to drop back more than they want to. Baltimore’s run defense is stout so even though you have a 2,000 yard rusher, letting Ryan Tannehill work off the play action will likely be the most effective way to move the ball. If Derrick Henry does have some runs that get to the second level, Baltimore’s linebackers are undersized and you know how that may go. If Tannehill is effective and they take advantage of Henry running over the second-level of the defense, Tennessee has a great chance to pull off the upset.
If history repeats itself from either of the two games these teams played in 2020, the Ravens are in trouble. Baltimore MUST stick to their guns and play a game that plays to their strengths. Run the ball. Run the ball. Combining for 400 yards isn’t likely attainable because the Tennessee defense is… a bit different than Cincinnati’s. But if met with adversity, Baltimore cannot afford to stray from the game plan, and they cannot afford an insurmountable first half deficit. Baltimore’s success hinges on the offense. Simple as that. Don’t rely on Lamar to throw, but open the game with his legs.
#7 Chicago Bears (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS)
@ #2 New Orleans Saints (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS)
Moneyline: Chicago (+385) | New Orleans (-500)
Spread: CHI +9.5 (-105) | NO -9.5 (-115)
Total: o47.5 (-105) | u47.5 (-115)
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Game Info: January 10, 2021, 4:40 p.m. ET | CBS
I’ll be honest, I don’t see a path to victory for the Bears here. The offense has looked improved over the past couple of weeks, but against poor defenses. This New Orleans defense will be able to stifle Mitch Trubisky and will just need to score over 20 points to win. These aren’t the ‘85 Bears on defense, so Brees should have no trouble doing this, especially with the return of Michael Thomas. Look for the Saints to win this one handily.
If Roquan Smith and Darnell Mooney are not able to go on Sunday, that likely spells the death of Chicago’s short-lived postseason campaign. It’s time to cut Mitch loose. It’s time to sink or swim for a lot of positions here including QB1 and the general manager. If you’re looking for a positive takeaway for a likely bashing, this could very well spell the end of Chuck Pagano’s unsuccessful win as Bears defensive coordinator.
How can they pull off the upset? New Orleans is one of the most unlucky playoff teams in recent memory. From the Minneapolis Miracle, to the missed pass interference that led to a rules change, to a push off in the end zone in overtime last season, things are tough for the Saints. Maybe it’s another miracle, maybe David Montgomery breaks through a Trey Hendrickson-less line, or maybe Mitch Trubisky unleashes what we’ve waited to see since the 2017 NFL Draft.
#6 Cleveland Browns (11-5 SU, 6-10 ATS)
@ #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS)
Moneyline: Cleveland (+225) | Pittsburgh (-275)
Spread: CLE +5.5 (-105) | PIT -5.5 (-115)
Total: o47.5 (-110) | u47.5 (-110)
Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Info: January 10, 2021, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
This is a great round one matchup for Pittsburgh. A defense predicated on generating pressure and turning the ball over, facing a QB making his first career playoff start is an ideal matchup. While Baker Mayfield has been solid this year, he still struggles under pressure when everything breaks down. Without Joel Bitonio and Kevin Stefanski around, Baker is going to have to make some plays, which I don’t trust to happen. If Pittsburgh gets an early lead, look for this one to turn into a possible bloodbath. If the Steelers are also struggling to score however, this could just be a low-scoring slugfest where either team has the chance. The Steelers should attack Baker early, force turnovers, and send the Browns home at halftime.
For Cleveland, the road is tough. From losing multiple players to the COVID-19 Reserve list, the biggest blow is the loss of Head Coach Kevin Stefanski. After testing positive, the Browns lose their rookie head coach that got the franchise back to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Kind of a big deal, eh? In year three of Baker Mayfield in Cleveland, it’s time to unleash the magic. A Pittsburgh team that lives and dies on defense, if Cleveland’s offense can push the ball downfield through the air with a healthy ground attack, look out. Before laying any wagers, check the injury status of All-Pro OL Jack Conklin. If he plays, that could be the X-Factor. If not, well…
For more insight and our specific picks, check out this week’s episode of the Campus Cover available wherever you get your podcasts.