Tua Tagovailoa enters his first start of his pro-football career in two weeks in a situation in Miami unlike most around the league, especially those with rookie quarterbacks drafted within the first six picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. In most cases, teams drafting a QB within the first few picks typically have a high overall pick for good reason, and even the presence of a franchise altering QB isn’t enough to compete seriously in the following season. That’s the current situation we’re watching unfold for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati and for Justin Herbert with the Chargers. However, through six games, expectations in Miami are a bit different. If Tua is going to start, then he needs to produce. No grace period. No growing pains. Here’s why:

The 2020 Off-Season

Let’s travel back in time to the 2020 NFL Draft. As mentioned, in most cases, if you’re a top five pick, it’s not the prettiest of situations and the team is in bad shape, right? Sort of. Miami was a downright atrocity in 2019, however, with an abundance of draft capital and cap space freed up after parting ways with declining veterans, Miami found itself with a favorable state of affairs.

First things first, Miami got to work on the offensive line. Trading Laremy Tunsil a season before stung, but the draft capital received for a team rebuilding was plentiful. Miami quickly signed Ereck Flowers, who revived his career with Washington after making the switch to left guard. In an attempt to quickly retool the defense, Miami penned deals with Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Shaq Lawson. Miami rounded out their offseason with a successful draft that brought three starting-caliber offensive lineman to the organization, as well as adding more depth in the secondary and defensive line.

The Dolphins were arguably the most improved team this past off-season. Super Bowl contenders out of the AFC? Not quite. Playoff worthy? Well, they’re certainly making a case. Just one game back of the Buffalo Bills and with a withering Patriots dynasty finally falling before us, it’s not even out of the realm of possibility that Miami could compete for the AFC East title. Miami isn’t punting on this season, nor should they. Their free agent acquisitions are performing well, locker room chemistry appears at a high level; it boils down to the culture.

What about the culture?

We hear A LOT about Miami having “the right culture”. What even is their culture? Well, what we’ve learned thus far is the best players will play regardless of draft status or salary. If you practice hard, study hard, and put the team first, positive results will come. Which they have. Mock the Dolphins for “not tanking right” (even though Brian Flores preached against the tank), and say that all winning now will cost them in the future. It’s that competitive nature that’s the reason why guys like Byron Jones signed with Miami. To suggest punting a season to improve draft position is blatant disregard for the competitive nature of Brian Flores and his locker room.

FitzMagic

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s interception numbers continue to climb at a relatively alarming rate. However, what we’ve seen so far in 2020 makes us believe a great majority of the picks are uncontrollable circumstances for the QB: receivers slipping on breaks, blindside pressure, missed pass interference calls, and most recently, Marcus Maye’s butt-erception. The reality is this is Fitzpatrick’s best work. Both regular and advanced stats have painted FitzMagic as a top 10 QB in the entire NFL through six weeks. Obviously he is not a top 10 QB, but this has been the best and most consistent Fitzpatrick has played in his entire career.

So, if Tua is going to play, he needs to play at that level at the very least. Because if he doesn’t, Miami risks falling back in a wide open AFC East.

I’m not OUT on Tua…

Fans can set expectations, can’t they? The #5 overall pick in 2020 is the future, right? Then there’s no reason Tagovailoa cannot supersede Fitzpatrick with the same supporting cast and win a few games to keep Miami in the hunt.

With opponents like the Jets again, the Chargers, Broncos and Bengals all ahead on the schedule, this is a team that should blow their preseason nationally based projection of five or six wins out of the water. There’s also opportunities to even the score with Buffalo and New England down the line, as both teams have looked less than spectacular in recent weeks.

I don’t know what the future holds. Injuries can plague this team even worse than they already have. Players could start regressing–although not likely with Flores in charge. Nevertheless, if they are relatively healthy I expect this team to make the playoffs.

Tua’s play will have a lot to do with that. I’m not going to hope he plays well because I’m expecting him to play well. Play poorly and miss the postseason? Likely a disappointment at this point in time.

Am I setting myself up for disappointment? Maybe. But to quote the great Michael Scott, “No question about it. I am ready to get hurt again”.