With the release of the latest college football playoff rankings unveiled on Tuesday night, it became clear that the Oklahoma Sooners face an uphill battle for the rest of this season, forcing us to consider what Oklahoma’s playoff blueprint would look like.
Tuesday’s rankings saw the Sooners rise on place, from tenth to ninth, passing the Minnesota Gophers who dropped their first game of the season to Iowa. Having back-to-back trips to the playoff and only one loss on their resume, you would think that a historical power like Oklahoma would receive more respect from the playoff committee. However, the Sooners haven’t done themselves any favors in the past few weeks.
After taking their first loss against Kansas State three weeks ago, Oklahoma has now responded by barely escaping an upset against Iowa State by a 42-41 score, and then having to escape a 28-3 deficit to overcome the Baylor Bears this weekend with an epic comeback. With this victory, Oklahoma saw its title odds move from +2000 to +1600, which is tied for fifth in the country. It’s clear that Oklahoma is one of the better teams in the country, but they must prove that they can be dominant over the rest of the season.
Step 1: Win Out
This one if obvious. The Sooners will have to win every game on the rest of their schedule in order the be considered worthy by the playoff committee. There has never been a two-loss team to make the playoff and it doesn’t appear to be an exception this year. Oklahoma’s remaining schedule contains just TCU, Oklahoma State, and then a Big 12 Championship game rematch with Baylor, more than likely. This doesn’t provide opportunity for a marquee win, but some dominant showings against solid opponents could help their case.
Step 2: Hope for the Pac 12 to Implode
Usually this isn’t something you have to hope for, it just happens naturally. But, with Oregon and Utah both ranked above the Sooners, you would need both of these teams to lose a game to jump them both. This may not be a likely goal as Oregon has just Arizona State and Oregon State left, whereas Utah has Arizona and Colorado. The Ducks and Utes should be heavy favorites in their remaining regular season games before facing off with each other, so we would need a large upset in one of these games and then have the losing team go on to win the Pac 12 with two losses. Not likely, but there’s a hope.
Step 3: Root for Ohio State and LSU
Ohio State and LSU have been the best teams all season. At this point, Oklahoma has no chance of catching them, so it would be better to just hope that the Buckeyes and Tigers destroy the rest of the competition. Ohio State can still defeat Penn State to help Oklahoma gain another spot, along with beating Michigan and Minnesota to keep them from possibly jumping. An LSU victory over Georgia would likely knock the Bulldogs down as well, further clearing the path to the playoff.
Step 4: Pray
If all above the above happen, this would leave us with Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, and Alabama. Based on their current ranking and strong loss to LSU, it is likely that the committee currently favors Alabama over Oklahoma for that last playoff spot. At this point, you would have to hope that Clemson somehow drops a game against a weak ACC opponent or that the committee values OU’s conference championship win to move them above a Tua-less Alabama team.
The Sooners face an uphill battle from this disrespect of the playoff committee, but their playoff hopes are not dead yet. Oklahoma’s playoff blueprint will require a lot of help from others and means nothing without winning out. Over these last three weeks of the season, Jalen Hurts and Co. will need to play the best football they have all year… and also get a little lucky.
