Outlining a Possible Group of 5 Playoff

As ESPN’s Brett McMurphy wrote, there is growing buzz around the coaches of Group of 5 schools concerning a separate playoff system. The “Group of 5” encompasses schools from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West Conference and Sun Belt Conference. With Western Michigan going undefeated and winning the MAC, and still only being ranked 15th in the CFB Playoff poll, the need for a separate playoff seems warranted. And, contrary to the expected back-lash, yes, people will actually watch these playoff games. Just look at the popularity of MAC-tion games on Tuesday nights. Let’s be honest, these Group of 5 playoffs would be awesome to watch. Maybe the meaningless bowl games will finally be over with.

My outline for a Group of 5 playoff would follow the same format as the current CFB Playoff, 4 teams and 2 rounds of games.

Group of 5 Playoff Top 4

1. Western Michigan, 13-0 in regular season, face Wisconsin in Cotton Bowl

For obvious reasons, as one of only two remaining undefeated teams, Western Michigan would be at the top of the rankings. Could they be the Alabama of the Group of 5? Yes, but it seems unlikely for me, as there is not as much separation between teams in the Group of 5 as there is in the Power 5. PJ Fleck’s squad played in only two games all year decided by single digits. Quarterback Zach Terrell has thrown just 3 interceptions all year, while his favorite target, projected first-round pick Corey Davis, has hauled in 18 touchdowns. Not to be outdone by the offense, the Broncos defense has forced 26 turnovers on the season, while allowing less than 20 points per game.

2. Temple, 10-3 in regular season, lost to Wake Forest 34-26 in Military Bowl

Before their loss in the Military Bowl, Temple enjoyed a successful regular season, defeating USF 46-30, and winning the American Athletic Conference over then 19th-ranked Navy, 34-10. Led by senior quarterback Phillip Walker, a 4-year starter, Temple finished conference play with an impressive 7-1 record. On the defensive side, Haason Reddick finished with 10.5 sacks, good enough for second in the conference. Reddick leads a defense that ranks third in the FBS in total yards allowed per game. In the Military Bowl, the Owls almost completed an impressive comeback, ultimately falling short after trailing 31-10 at halftime.

3. San Diego State, 10-3 in regular season, 34-10 victory over Houston in Las Vegas Bowl

Not only did San Diego State have two 1,000 rushers, but Donnel Pumphrey topped 2,000 yards while his backup Rashaad Penney gained 1005 yards on the ground. With those two leading the way, San Diego State came out of the gates hot, winning 9 of their first 10, then stumbled, losing their final two regular season games. Still, a revenge victory over Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference championship game gave the Aztecs a 10-3 record to end the season. A convincing 34-10 victory over Houston gave Pumphrey and company a chance to showcase their talents on a national stage.

4. South Florida, 10-2 in regular season, defeated South Carolina 46-39 in Birmingham Bowl

If South Florida had defeated Temple in their late season matchup, it would be them sitting at number 2 in the rankings. However, a marquee 42-35 victory over then 22nd-ranked Navy, and only losing to Florida State by 20 provides the only argument necessary to include South Florida over other conference champions Appalachian State and Western Kentucky. USF showed their ability to play with the big boys today when they defeated South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. Quarterback Quinton Flowers finished with 366 total yards and 5 total touchdowns. New head coach Charlie Strong will have the opportunity to improve on the impressive season, as Flowers has already announced that he will be returning to school for his senior season. Strong will have to recruit better in-state for the Bulls to take the next step and become a national contender.

Rest of Top 10

5. Appalachian State, 10-2 in regular season, Sun Belt Champions, 31-28 victory over Toledo in Camellia Bowl

6. Western Kentucky, 10-3 in regular season, Conference USA Champions, defeated Memphis 51-31 in Boca Raton Bowl

7. Boise State, 10-2 in regular season, lost to Baylor 31-12 in Cactus Bowl

8. Navy, 9-4 in regular season, defeated then 6th-ranked Houston 46-40, lost 48-45 to Louisiana Tech in Armed Forces Bowl

9. Air Force, 9-3 in regular season, defeated South Alabama 45-21 in Arizona Bowl

10. Troy, 9-3 in regular season, defeated Ohio 28-23 in Dollar General Bowl

Potential Matchups

Western Michigan vs South Florida

As they should be, Western Michigan would be the favorite heading into this playoff. However, South Florida could give the Broncos a run for their money. Bulls quarterback Quniton Flowers leads the team in passing and rushing, demonstrating his true dual-threat abilities. USF’s explosive offense averages nearly 44 points per game, but a shaky defense surrenders an average of 31 points per game. Western Michigan on the other hand also averages nearly 44 points per game, but gives up an average of less than 20. The Broncos also outgain their opponents by an average of 143 yards per game. I just can’t see USF being able to contain Zach Terrell and Corey Davis, and since Terrell rarely turns the ball over, Western Michigan can control the clock. This one would be close early,but the Broncos will “Row the Boat” right into the Group of 5 National Championship.

Prediction: Western Michigan 31, South Florida 17

Temple vs San Diego State

Temple’s defense has been stellar all season, holding their opponents under 300 yards per game, including just 145 per game through the air. However, San Diego State has rushed for the 6th-most yards in the FBS this season. What he lacks in height, Donnel Pumphrey more than makes up for in talent. Pumphrey leads the FBS in rushing yards this season, and also holds the FBS record for career rushing yards. Between Pumphrey and backup Rashaad Penney, San Diego State will be able to run the ball and control the pace of play throughout this slug fest. Both teams are in the top 15 in total yards allowed, so don’t expect a high scoring affair. Ultimately, I think that San Diego State’s two-headed backfield will give them a slight edge.

Prediction: San Diego State 21, Temple 13

Championship: Western Michigan vs San Diego State

A potential first-round wide receiver in Corey Davis against an Aztecs defense that allows just 208 passing yards per game should be an exciting matchup. I give Western Michigan the upper-hand in this matchup based heavily on the fact that they rarely turn the ball over. The Broncos have a +17 turnover margin on the year, including 15 defensive interceptions. As long as Terrell is under center for PJ Fleck, Western Michigan is the team to beat. Whether this game becomes a shootout or a defensive battle, I can only see the Broncos coming out on top.

Prediction: Western Michigan 38, San Diego State 24