Missouri -2.5 vs South Carolina (3 units)
This is one of my favorite picks of the entire week. I am surprised the Tigers opened up as a favorite, but to no surprise the public is betting heavily on the Gamecocks. South Carolina got a win against NC State last week despite being significantly outgained 504-246. I expect Missouri’s veteran quarterback Drew Lock to take care of the football. Our AGI index at Student Union loves Missouri to the point they were in our analytical top 25. The Tigers should surprise a lot of people in the SEC East this year, and I think they take care of the Gamecocks fairly easily.
Fresno St (+44) @ Alabama (1 unit)
This is simply too many points for an offense that has not shown much explosiveness. This is a game where Alabama will try to give Jalen Hurts confidence in the passing game. Despite playing against inferior competition, I expect Hurts to struggle throwing the ball against the Fresno St defense. The Bulldogs return 16 starters from last year’s team, and after a 66-0 win against Incarnate Word new coach Jeff Tedford has seemed to establish a new attitude for the program. Despite going 1-11 last year, the Bulldogs were 7-4-1 against the spread including a 7-2-1 mark in their last 10 games. I expect the Bulldogs to not back down against Alabama. Talented QB Chason Virgil should be able to manufacture a couple of scoring drives that will be good enough to cover the spread.
SMU (-13) vs North Texas (1 Unit)
The Mean Green will travel 40 miles south to Dallas to face off against the SMU Mustangs. There is not much of a crosstown rivalry between the two schools since SMU has dominated the series with a 30-5-1 advantage over the Mean Green. The Mustangs domination should continue once again this year. SMU is an under-the-radar team with a lot of potent firepower on the offensive side of the ball, all led by star wide receiver Courtland Sutton. North Texas gave up a lot of explosive plays last year, and I expect the Mustangs to make enough plays to cover the two touchdown spread.
Iowa (-3) @ Iowa St (2 Units)
It is mind boggling how close to even money this game opened up. The sharps and the Vegas Sportsbooks like the Cyclones, but I don’t see it. If it wasn’t for two timely defensive turnovers that lead to two touchdowns, Iowa St would be facing an upset against Northern Iowa last week. The Cyclones certainly did not play well enough to warrant the amount of action they are getting in this rivalry game. On the other hand, Iowa looked great defensively, shutting down potential top 3 QB Josh Allen. I typically fade picking road favorites in rivalry games, but this scenario is too good to pass up. Iowa should roll through the Cyclones on Saturday. Akrum Wadley has another solid contest and leads the Hawkeyes to victory 20-7.
Oklahoma (+7.5)/ +(4.5) (first half) Oklahoma first half moneyline (+275). @ Ohio St
Baker Mayfield went 19-20 for 325 yards while throwing 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions earning him a QBR of 97.9 in Oklahoma’s home opener against UTEP. Even though Ohio St was my preseason pick to win the national championship, I’m going to hedge my future pick by picking the Sooners plus 7.5 in the biggest matchup of the week. This is a matchup that features the best offensive line in the country vs the best defensive line in the country. If Oklahoma can keep Mayfield clean in the pocket, he should wreak havoc on an Ohio St. secondary that surrendered 410 yards to Richard Lagow! When kept clean in the pocket, Lagow was very effective throwing the deep ball against this Buckeyes inexperienced secondary.
In this matchup, Mayfield is the best deep passer in the college game. He also has better weapons, highlighted by 6’6 receiver/tight end Mark Andrews. I am very excited to see Oklahoma’s o-line vs the Ohio St pass rush. Baker Mayfield has a lot to prove after last years blowout loss against the Buckeyes. I think Mayfield has a terrific offensive performance that is good enough to keep the game close and he may be able to lead the Sooners to an upset road win. I expect the Oklahoma Sooners to jump out to a fast lead, since Barrett is notorious for being slow starters. New coach Lincoln Riley should have his team fired up and ready to go. Bet the Sooners first half/spread and moneyline, I also think the Sooners defense should be good enough to cover the spread. The Buckeyes barely escape winning 38-35.
Notre Dame (-4) vs Georgia
I’m predicting the public continues to bet the Bulldogs heavily and this spread might climb down to -2 to possibly a pick ’em by game time. The Bulldogs are starting freshmen quarterback Jake Fromm. Fromm looked good against Appalachian St, but it is tough task to start a true freshmen in South Bend. New Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush is the real deal, and Notre Dame has an elite offensive line to protect him from Georgia’s vicious pass rush. Brian Kelly knows this is the game that will set the tone for the rest of their season. Our AGI index likes the Fighting Irish at home against the Bulldogs. Wait for Joe Public to bet the line down, then hammer the Irish right before kickoff.