After Oklahoma’s 38-20 victory over TCU last Saturday, the Big 12 championship and path to the playoff became a little bit clearer. The conference is OU’s to lose at this point, as they remain the only team in the conference with less than two losses, and the only Big 12 team remaining with playoff hopes. While Oklahoma may control their own destiny, there are still a number of scenarios that could shake up in the conference.
Top-Four
- Oklahoma: 9-1 (6-1)
- Oklahoma State: 8-2 (5-2)
- TCU: 8-2 (5-2)
- West Virginia: 7-3 (5-2)
Oklahoma
Against the other teams in the top-four: Wins over TCU and Oklahoma State
Remaining Schedule: @ Kansas, West Virginia
Oklahoma’s toughest games of the season are behind them, but they still have one a matchup at home against West Virginia. Barring an incredible loss to the Kansas Jayhawks (Oklahoma hasn’t lost to Kansas since 1997), the Sooners will end their regular season schedule with a chance to clinch the top spot in the conference against the Mountaineers.
How they clinch:
- Winning out and/or defeating West Virginia.
How they are left out:
- Lose both remaining games, and two of TCU/OSU/WVU win out.
- Lose to either Kansas or WVU, WVU/OSU/Iowa State win out, TCU loses
Bottom Line: Win the remaining two regular season games and Big 12 title game, and they’re in the playoffs. Lose either game, the Big 12’s playoff hopes are dead and conference chaos potentially ensues.
Oklahoma State
Against the top-four: Lost to TCU and OU, won vs. West Virginia
Remaining schedule: Kansas State, Kansas
Oklahoma State should finish the regular season with victories against the Wildcats and Jayhawks, which would mean finishing with a 7-2 record in the conference. They have the head-to-head advantage over West Virginia, but are behind TCU and Oklahoma. Their playoff hopes are over, but a path to their second Big-12 title game is still there.
How they clinch: Win out, TCU loses
How they are left out:
- If they lose to either K-State or Kansas
- TCU wins out, OU wins at least one of two
Bottom Line: Win out and hope for either a TCU loss or for OU to lose both.
TCU
Against the top-four: Wins against OSU and WVU, lost against Oklahoma
Remaining Schedule: @ Texas Tech, Baylor
TCU is in the best position besides Oklahoma. Despite losses to Iowa State and Oklahoma, they control their destiny in the conference thanks to wins over West Virginia and Oklahoma State. However, with the injury bug biting the team the last couple of weeks, nothing is guaranteed for the Horned Frogs.
How they clinch:
- Win out, and they’re in
- Win one and OSU/WVU/OU loses both
How they are left out: Lose to either Tech or Baylor, and OSU/WVU wins out
Bottom Line: Win out and they’re in. Lose at all, and hope OSU/WVU both lose at least once.
West Virginia
Against the top-four: Lost to OSU and TCU
Remaining Schedule: Texas, @ OU
WVU has the toughest path to make it to the Big-12 title game. They lost to both OSU and TCU, and have the hardest remaining schedule of the top-four teams, including a trip to Norman to face Oklahoma. However, their chances are definitely not out of the question.
How they clinch:
- Win out and OSU/TCU lose once.
- Lose to Texas, but beat Oklahoma, and TCU/OSU lose out.
How they are left out:
- Lose both games
- Lose once, but two of OU/TCU/OSU win out.
Of course, since it’s the Big 12, it’s just as possible that all of the upsets happen and this analysis gets thrown completely out the window.
Here’s to two more weeks of Big 12 football.