North Texas Has Surprised Everyone This Season
Last season was a historic season for the North Texas basketball program. The Mean Green made the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010 and picked up their first March Madness win in program history. As a #13 seed, they upset Purdue in the first round, winning 78-69 in overtime, but saw their Cinderella run shut-down shortly after, as Villanova took care of them 84-61.
With the departures of 3 of their top 4 scorers last season (Javion Hamlet and Zachary Simmons graduating, James Reese V transferring to South Carolina), the expectations for the Mean Green this season were much lower. Many college basketball analysts and fans projected them to finish 4th or 5th in Conference USA, behind teams like UAB, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, and Marshall. It did not start out pretty for North Texas, losing 3 of their first 5 games this season (neutral site vs Kansas, neutral site vs Miami, and vs Buffalo), but all of their loses were competitive games against good programs. After that 2-3 start, the Mean Green have gone on to win 19 of their next 20 games. More importantly, they have gone an impressive 14-1 in conference play and have solidified themselves as the favorite for the automatic tournament bid.
North Texas is 1-1 in QUAD 1 wins and 5-2 in QUAD 2 wins. They are also currently ranked 37th in NET, 39th in KenPom, and 31st in RPI. Essentially, the advanced stats tell us that North Texas should be a tournament team, whether they win their conference or not, but the only way the Mean Green are a lock to dance in March is if they win the CUSA championship.
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
Under UNT coach, Grant McCasland, the Mean Green have always been solid defensively and slow offensively, however this season, they have become even slower on offense and elite defensively. Last season, North Texas was 312th in field goal attempts per game and 16th in the nation in points allowed at just 62.3 points per game. In 2021-2022, UNT have dropped down to 354th in field goal attempts (at a mere 51.1 per game) and allow only 55.6 points per game (which is #1 in the entire nation). They have allowed 70+ points just once this season, against #4 ranked Kansas, and have 16 games where they allowed <60 points.
On top of this, North Texas ranks 2nd to last in possessions per game and adjusted tempo, which measures possessions per 40 minutes (adjusted for opponents). The only team with a slower pace than UNT in the NCAAA is Tony Bennett’s Virginia Cavaliers. The Mean Green reduce opponents’ shots and more specifically, reduce opponents 3-pointers. They rank 1st in both opponent 3FGAs (14.6 per game) and opponent 3FGMs (4.1 per game). This means that on offense, their 8.0 made threes per game, nearly double their opponents’ makes from beyond the arc game in and game out. It is a brilliant strategy that has worked wonders for them this season.
What’s Next for the Mean Green?
At the moment, Joe Lunardi has North Texas projected to win Conference USA and to enter March Madness as a #12 seed, which would place them in the always interesting 12-5 matchup in the round of 64. If North Texas does not win their conference championship, they could easily be in the “outside looking in” group of teams and get an invitation for the NIT tournament instead. With that being said, if North Texas goes dancing, look for them to take part in a grind-it-out low scoring game against a soon-to-be-frustrated power 5 conference team. The Mean Green are poised to be one of the most difficult double-digit seeds to face in the first round come mid-March. They are set to play Louisiana Tech at home on Saturday, where they look to keep their 13-game win streak alive.