The team from Queens has had quite an offseason. Under new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets have made several big splashes and acquisitions since the end of last season. Let’s break down what their Opening Day roster could look like, by position:
Catchers: James McCann, Tomas Nido
James McCann was one of the first big signings by Cohen and company. After inking a 4-year deal, he will officially be the Mets’ starting catcher for the foreseeable future. A solid defensive option, McCann’s bat broke out in the past two seasons, posting a 114 OPS+ since 2019 after entering that year with a career OPS+ of 76.
Tomas Nido will play the role of backup backstop, after playing just seven games in 2020. Last season, Nido was stuck behind Wilson Ramos and Robinson Chirinos, who both departed at the end of the year. With the only other catcher on the 40-man roster being Patrick Mazeika (who has never played above AA), the backup role is Nido’s to lose.
Infielders: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, J.D. Davis, Jonathan Villar, Luis Guillorme
Most of these players are no-brainers here. Despite a bit of a slump during 2020 (.941 OPS in 2019, .817 last season), Pete Alonso is still one of the best power bats in baseball. Also on the right side of the infield, Jeff McNeil should be able to move back to 2nd base this season, which will suit him much better defensively.
The biggest offseason acquisition for the Mets, Francisco Lindor, obviously takes hold at shortstop, and gives them a true face-of-the-franchise type player. On his right, J.D. Davis will hold down third base. Despite trade rumors surrounding several star third basemen (notably Kris Bryant), it appears that Davis will be manning the hot corner when the season begins.
The Mets will likely carry two infielders on their bench come Opening Day. Jonathan Villar is another new acquisition, and will play the role of utilityman. Villar has played short, second, third, left field, and center field throughout his career. Expect to see him fill in throughout the season, specifically in the infield.
Luis Guillorme‘s role is most likely going to be depleted after the team brought in Villar, but he still projects to make the team. Guillorme impressed with the bat during 2020, slashing .333/.426/.439 with a 141 OPS+. Like Villar, he can play second, third, and the occasional shortstop.
The left-handed Guillorme, and switch-hitting Villar, can serve as matchup options as well, depending how manager Luis Rojas wants to balance the lineup.
Outfield: Brandon Nimmo, Dom Smith, Michael Conforto, Kevin Pillar, Albert Almora Jr.
Like the infield, the starting outfield positions are essentially set. Dom Smith broke out in 2020, slugging .616 with a 169 OPS+, and he finished 13th in NL MVP voting. Despite his defensive issues (UZR/150 of -11.7 last season), Smith’s bat is simply too good to leave on the bench. In addition to left field, Smith should also be the primary backup option at first base.
Brandon Nimmo started 44 of the team’s 60 games in center field last season, and he should have the same role for 2021. Like Smith, Nimmo features a great bat, but questionable defense. In 2020, Nimmo recorded -5 DRS and a UZR/150 of -19.7 (per Fangraphs). While he may be shifted to a corner position late in games, he will be the team’s starting center fielder until further notice.
In right field, Michael Conforto poses no questions. Since 2017, Conforto has posted an OPS+ of 134, with 97 home runs across 467 games. He also has recorded 5 DRS in right throughout his career. Conforto has played in 358 of the Mets’ 384 games since the 2018 season. Expect him to play most every inning in right field this season.
Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar, admittedly, are a bit redundant. When Almora was first signed, he was expected to be the team’s 4th outfielder, and a possible defense replacement. However, the signing of Pillar means the two of them will both fight to split time in that role.
Pillar has played 759 games in center, and has a career slashline of .262/.299/.408. In comparison, Almora’s bat isn’t quite as reliable (slugging percentage of .373 and OPS+ of 76 since 2018).
Though both will play center (and probably the corner positions at times), I would expect Almora to see more time as a defensive replacement, while Pillar could see the lineup more often while filling in for anyone needing a day off. (Example: Pete Alonso gets the day off; Dom Smith plays first, Nimmo moves to left, and Pillar starts in center).
Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson
There isn’t much to be said about Jacob deGrom that you haven’t already heard. With a career 2.61 ERA and 150 ERA+, he is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball at the moment.
Marcus Stroman may feel like he has something to prove entering 2021. The right-hander opted out last season, missing the entire year. However, he was reliable in his short stint in Queens during 2019, posting a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts. While missing all of last season could prove detrimental (that remains to be seen), Stroman’s spot in the rotation is assured.
Carlos Carrasco was slightly overlooked upon his arrival to the team, but not by any fault of his own. After coming over as part of the Lindor trade, Carrasco will likely be an important piece for the Mets. He’s posted a 3.41 ERA since 2014, and put up a 157 ERA+ in 68 innings during 2020.
Taijuan Walker is the newest addition to the Mets’ rotation, signing with the team just days ago. Walker has quietly put together a strong career, and dominated across 26 and 1/3 innings with Toronto last season. He will be a solid depth piece in a rotation that will be missing Noah Syndergaard for a while.
David Peterson impressed as a rookie last year, with a 3.44 ERA in 10 appearances. The 25-year-old southpaw will have some competition, however. Pitchers such as Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto could also push for the 5th spot, and it may be tempting for the team to start Peterson at AAA (since he has options remaining).
However, Peterson has the most upside out of these three arms. Barring a poor Spring Training, the 5th starting spot will most likely be his to lose.
Bullpen: Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, Trevor May, Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup, Miguel Castro, Jacob Barnes, Drew Smith
A few of these guys shouldn’t be surprising at all. Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, and Jeurys Familia were all mainstays in the ‘pen last season.
Diaz rebounded from a horrid 2019 with a 1.75 ERA and 244 ERA+ during 2020. Familia was relatively reliable as well, with a 3.71 ERA in 25 games.
Betances, on the other hand, struggled mightily, allowing 10 runs in 11 and 2/3 innings. However, his FIP was 4.91 (2.8 below his ERA), and his average exit velocity of 82.5 mph was the lowest of his career. He will, at the very least, get the chance to prove that last year was a fluke.
Trevor May was another offseason acquisition, and should be a major factor in the bullpen. He’s recorded a 140 ERA+ since 2018, and had a career-best strikeout percentage of 39.6% last season (per Baseball Savant).
Miguel Castro was acquired via trade last season, and allowed 4 runs across 9 innings with the Mets. He features a lively fastball (averaging 98.1 mph), and his strikeout rate of 33% ranked in the top 10% of all pitchers (Both numbers via Baseball Savant).
Aaron Loup is another newcomer. As a left-hander, he will be a very valuable piece to this right-handed-heavy Mets bullpen in 2021. Last season, he posted a 2.52 ERA in 25 innings with the Rays, and recorded a walk rate of just 4.2% (ranking in the top 7% of the league).
Jacob Barnes, a waiver pickup in October, could be a sneaky good addition to the team. Despite a 5.50 ERA last season (and an even-worse 7.44 mark in 2019), Barnes has some intriguing stuff. In 2020, he ranked in the top 17% of the league in whiff rate, strikeout percentage, and walk rate. When the ball was put in play, however, his fate was a bit different.
Barnes’ hard-hit rate was 47.9%, one of the highest rates in the majors. Again, however, it’s important to remember that this was a shortened season, so the numbers are bound to be a bit skewered. Prior to 2020, Barnes had never posted a hard-hit rate above 37.7%. His FIP last season was also just 2.25, a drastic 3.25 difference from his ERA. He should be bound for some positive regression in 2021.
The last bullpen spot is a bit hard to predict, with several pitchers vying for a spot. Besides Drew Smith, we could also see Mike Montgomery, Tommy Hunter, or even a starter like Lucchesi or Yamamoto in this position.
With the newly-added depth, the Mets have several more options behind these arms as well. Stephen Tarpley or Jerry Blevins could provide another left-handed arm, and someone like Robert Gsellman could compete for the role as well (provided he rebounds from a dreadful 2020).
It’s also important to note that Seth Lugo will miss Opening Day and some time after that, caused by elbow surgery that he received about a week ago. When Lugo returns, it’s expected that one of these final two spots (in this case Smith or Barnes) would be sent down.
In the case of Smith, he’s another arm that struggled last season. A 6.43 ERA jumps off the page in a bad way, but there’s more to the story.
Smith threw just 7 innings, and a grand slam that he allowed to Gary Sanchez on August 30th is mostly responsible for that high ERA. Smith allowed a hard-hit percentage of just 25%, and a strikeout rate of 24.1%, 9.1 points higher than his debut season in 2018 (he missed 2019 after receiving Tommy John surgery).
Opening Day Lineup?
With all these players in mind, let’s take a look at what the Mets’ lineup could look like when the year begins:
Lineup:
- Brandon Nimmo (CF)
- Jeff McNeil (3B)
- Francisco Lindor (SS)
- Michael Conforto (RF)
- Pete Alonso (1B)
- Dom Smith (LF)
- J.D. Davis (3B)
- James McCann (C)
- (Pitcher’s Spot)
Bench:
- Tomas Nido (C)
- Jonathan Villar (IF/OF)
- Luis Guillorme (IF)
- Kevin Pillar (OF)
- Albert Almora, Jr. (OF)
Rotation:
- Jacob deGrom (RHP)
- Marcus Stroman (RHP)
- Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
- Taijuan Walker (RHP)
- Drew Peterson (LHP)
Bullpen:
- Drew Smith (RHP)
- Jacob Barnes (RHP)
- Miguel Castro (RHP)
- Aaron Loup (LHP)
- Dellin Betances (RHP)
- Jeurys Familia (RHP)
- Trevor May (RHP)
- Edwin Diaz (RHP)
As it looks right now, this is a very strong team. Add returns from Seth Lugo and Noah Syndergaard during the season, and it’s no wonder that the PECOTA projections pick the team to win the NL East.
Another thing of note is how many new faces are on this roster. Of the 26 players, 10 of them were not with the team last season. This is a testament to Steve Cohen’s commitment to put the Mets over the top.
If one thing is certain, it’s that this should be a very exciting year in Queens.