Coming into the 2021 MLB season, the Yankees still boast one of the strongest rosters in baseball. However, this does not mean they are without issue. With Spring Training officially underway, the Bronx Bombers have several question marks (specifically when it comes to pitching). Let’s take a look at what the Yanks’ Opening Day roster might look like.
Catchers: Gary Sanchez, Kyle Higashioka
This one is relatively straightforward. Gary Sanchez will be entering his 6th full season in the Bronx. In that time, he’s posted a slashline of .237/.321/.503, with a .824 OPS (116 OPS+) and 115 home runs.
Despite his massive slump in 2020, Sanchez should still be the starting catcher heading into the new season. However, this year could potentially be make-or-break in regards to Gary’s future in pinstripes.
Kyle Higashioka spent 2020 as the full-time backup after the departure of Austin Romine, and even found himself playing the role of Gerrit Cole’s personal catcher for a while.
“Higgy” hit relatively well during the season, recording a .771 OPS, and was worth a positive amount of bWAR for the first time in his 4 short seasons with the team (72 games played since 2017).
The duo of Sanchez/Higashioka are essentially locked in as the 2021 catching tandem, at least to start the year.
Starting Infielders: Luke Voit, D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela
The starting infield roles are also locked in. Luke Voit led the majors in home runs last season, and has been one of the best first basemen in baseball since coming to the Bronx (.279/.372/.543 slashline, 143 OPS+).
D.J. LeMahieu was the biggest story of the offseason, as it pertains to the Yankees, and he eventually signed a 6-year contract to keep him with the team.
LeMahieu led the league with a .364 batting average, and also led the AL in on-base percentage (.421), OPS (1.011), and OPS+ (177). The veteran infielder has finished in the top 5 in AL MVP voting in each of the last two seasons.
Gleyber Torres has been one of the game’s brightest young stars since his debut in 2018. The 24-year-old struggled a bit in 2020, but has still recorded a wRC+ of 121 across 309 career games (according to Fangraphs).
The 2-time All Star’s defensive struggles have been well-documented, however. In 2019, Torres had -12 defensive runs saved (also via Fangraphs).
His defense was even worse last season, with a -9 DRS and 9 errors in just 40 games. While Torres’ fielding will be a major talking point for Yankees fans this season, he still enters the year as the team’s bonafide shortstop.
Gio Urshela, one of Brian Cashman’s greatest acquisitions, is also solidified in his role at third base. Urshela has slashed .310/.358/.523 in 175 games with the Yankees, and was worth 2.1 bWAR in just 43 games last season.
The defensive wiz recorded 6 DRS, and a 13.2 UZR/150 at the hot corner in 2020 (Fangraphs). Like the other three infield spots, Urshela has his role locked down.
Backup Infielders: Tyler Wade, Jay Bruce
Tyler Wade will likely spend his Opening Day on the bench. However, he is set to serve as a backup option up the middle for the Yankees throughout 2021.
Wade has never been much of a hitter (career 56 OPS+), but provides value with his defense and speed.
Jay Bruce is an intriguing addition. Although the veteran slugger is primarily known as an outfielder, he also plays first base.
While Bruce has played just 54 career games at the position, the Yankees already have an extremely crowded outfield. Bruce is a left-handed power bat, with 318 career home runs. This practically screams short porch.
Despite joining the Bombers on a minor-league deal, Bruce could very well replace Mike Ford as Voit’s backup in 2021.
Starting Outfielders: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier
The three outfield positions seem to be solidified heading into Spring Training. In right field, Aaron Judge is one of the true elite players in the game when healthy. Judge has hit 119 career home runs in just 424 games, to go along with a .948 OPS and a wRC+ of 151.
However, his dominance isn’t restricted to just one side of the ball. Judge is one of the best defenders in the game when it comes to the outfield, recording 48 defensive runs saved in his career, and a 30.0 UZR (Fangraphs).
When Judge is available, there’s no question who the Yankees’ right fielder is.
In center, another Aaron has the position locked down. Aaron Hicks posted a 121 OPS+ during the 2020 campaign, and had the 4th-highest OBP of all Yankees during the season.
The switch-hitting outfielder also boasts one of the best eyes in all of baseball, with a career walk rate of 12.5%. Defensively, Hicks has one of the strongest arms in the league, and has the hardest-recorded throw in the Statcast era. The center field job is his until further notice.
The most interesting of the three outfield spots is certainly left field. Clint Frazier expects to take the starting job, finally giving him an opportunity that has seemingly been a long time coming. Frazier has slashed .258/.331/.475 with 24 home runs in 162 career games.
However, those 162 games have been spread out across the last four seasons. A generally crowded outfield, and a concussion, had previously prevented Frazier from getting an opportunity to play consistently.
However, with Brett Gardner still unsigned (and likely to play the role of 4th OF if he is brought back), the left field spot seems to be Frazier’s for the taking.
Backup Outfielder: Mike Tauchman
As I just mentioned, Brett Gardner is still unsigned. If he is not brought back, the role of 4th outfielder is likely to be played by Mike Tauchman. Tauchman was phenomenal across 87 games in 2019 (13 home runs, .865 OPS, 128 wRC+), but failed to replicate that production whatsoever last season.
In 43 games during 2020, Tauchman’s OPS dropped to .648, and his hard-hit rate went from 38.9% in 2019 to 24.3% last year (Baseball Savant). His defense declined as well, recording a UZR/150 of -11.6 across the three outfield spots in 2020 (Fangraphs).
It’s also important to emphasize that 2020 was a shortened season, so this very well could have just been a bad slump for Tauchman. He will likely get another chance with the team during 2021, as long as Gardner doesn’t return.
Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton
This one is pretty straightforward. The 2017 NL MVP has struggled with his health, which has led to him exclusively playing the role of designated hitter for the time being. Giancarlo Stanton has played just 41 games in the last two seasons, but hasn’t shown any signs of rust when he’s been available.
In those 41 games, big Giancarlo has hit .267, just one point below his career .268 average. He also recorded a 141 OPS+, just below his career 144 mark.
During the postseason, Stanton was by far the best hitter on the Bombers, mashing 6 home runs in 7 games with an OPS of 1.426. When healthy, Stanton is one of the best sluggers in the game. Of course, like so many other Yankees, the health is always the biggest question mark.
Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia
For the rotation, I’ll break it down individually, by starter.
Ace: Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole is, essentially, the only guarantee in the starting rotation at this point. Despite posting a career-high barrel rate of 9.1%, Cole still pitched to a 2.84 ERA last season, the third-lowest of his career. He has recorded an xBA of .200 or less for each of the last three seasons (Baseball Savant). Cole is one of baseball’s true aces, and the anchor of a rotation that features a ton of question marks.
No. 2: Corey Kluber
Corey Kluber was, at one point, also one of baseball’s true aces. From 2014 to 2018, “Klubot” recorded a 2.85 ERA, a 151 ERA+, and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. In that span, he won the AL Cy Young award twice, and finished in the top 5 on two other occasions.
However, the last two years have not been nearly as kind to Kluber. Due to several injuries, he has thrown just 36 and 2/3 innings since the 2019 season. The Yankees are trusting that he can stay healthy in 2021, and received guidance from their Director of Health & Performance, Eric Cressey, who oversaw Kluber’s rehab.
Klubot is donning the pinstripes on a 1-year deal, worth $11 million. If he can regain even some of that Cy Young form, the Yankees could be looking at an absolute steal of a contract.
No. 3: Jameson Taillon
Like Kluber, Jameson Taillon is another high-risk addition with a ton of upside. After being acquired via trade from Pittsburgh, Taillon will likely slot into the No. 3 role in the rotation. Since making his MLB debut in 2016, he has been a consistent starter, posting a 3.67 ERA and a 3.55 FIP in 466 innings.
If that innings count seems low, that’s because it is. Taillon received a second Tommy John surgery in 2019, and hasn’t pitched in a game since May 1 of that year.
However, during his rehab, he made several changes to his delivery that he believes will make a giant difference. If he’s right, then the Yankees could be looking at another phenomenal pitcher in their rotation.
No. 4: Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery, for the most part, has flown relatively under the radar throughout his career. Despite the lack of fanfare, “Monty” recorded a 3.84 ERA and 116 ERA+ from 2017 to 2018. Unfortunately, that 2018 was cut short when he tore his UCL, and received Tommy John surgery. He didn’t return to the field until September 2019.
Since making his return, Montgomery has struggled, recording a 5.25 ERA across 48 innings. However, there are reasons to believe that this will not be a continuing trend.
Monty’s FIP in 2020 was 3.87, a far cry from his 5.11 ERA. In addition, he posted career lows in walk rate (4.7%), and average exit velocity (84.7 mph) (Baseball Savant). In a full season, Montgomery should be able to rediscover the success he initially had before the surgery.
No. 5: Deivi Garcia
The 5th spot in the rotation is arguably the one that is most up in the air. In addition to Deivi Garcia, there are several veteran options such as Jhoulys Chacin, and more young guns like Clarke Schmidt. In Spring Training, Domingo German is also expected to pitch in live games with the Yankees for the first time since September 2019.
However, this spot will likely go to the Yankees’ No. 3 prospect in Garcia. Deivi impressed during his 2020 stint, although the lack of consistency was a bit of an issue. Still, he’s more major-league ready than Schmidt, and nobody is quite sure what to expect from German at this point.
Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Chad Green, Darren O’Day, Justin Wilson, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael King
For the bullpen, I’ll also be breaking it down by role.
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
For all of the grief that Aroldis Chapman has gotten in regards to his perceived struggles come playoff time, he’s actually been quite good. With the Yankees, Chapman has a 1.71 ERA during the postseason, and hasn’t blown a save in 6 opportunities.
To put it bluntly, Yankee fans were spoiled by Mariano Rivera. Following him as closer on the next batch of the Yankees’ World Series-contending teams is no easy task, but Chapman has been one of the best shutdown options in baseball.
Since rejoining the team in 2017, Chapman has recorded a 2.64 ERA and 167 ERA+, with 94 saves in 107 opportunities. He’s also tinkering with a splitter that should help maintain his effectiveness even as his fastball velocity declines.
Setup Man: Zack Britton
Zack Britton teams up with Chapman to form one of the best setup-closer duos in all of baseball. Since joining the Bombers via trade in 2018, Britton has posted a 206 ERA+, and held opponents to an xSLG of just .275 last season (Baseball Savant).
Arguably the best groundball pitcher in the game, Britton has allowed an average launch angle of -7.3 throughout his career. There’s no question who the 8th inning belongs to (hint: it’s Britton).
Setup Man: Chad Green
Chad Green has played the role of utility man when it comes to the bullpen in recent years. Even with his well-documented struggles in early 2019, Green has posted a 2.90 ERA since the 2017 campaign. With work as an opener, long reliever, or setup man, Green can do it all. This season, however, he will likely be one of the late-inning options after the departures of Tommy Kahnle and Adam Ottavino.
Last season, Green allowed an xBA of only .161, and his xERA of 2.20 ranked in the 99th percentile across the entire league. It’s increasingly clear that May 2019 was just an apparition, and Green will play an important role for the Yankees again this season.
Setup/Mid-Relief: Darren O’Day
Darren O’Day is another new face for the Yankees, and one that fans should be very excited about. The 38-year-old sidewinder was one of the best relievers in baseball from 2012 to 2015, putting up a 214 ERA+ with the Orioles in that span. Pitching in Atlanta last season, O’Day allowed just 2 earned runs in 16 and 1/3 innings. His ERA+ was an absurd 440, as well.
As a pitcher who doesn’t rely on velocity (his fastball averaged just 86 mph last season, says Baseball Savant), O’Day isn’t likely to be affected by his old age (old in baseball terms, at least). With a slider that generated a whiff rate of 42.5%, O’Day has no trouble getting batters out. He’ll be a valuable asset for the Yankees in 2021.
Setup/Mid-Relief: Justin Wilson
Justin Wilson will be returning to the Bronx for his second stint in pinstripes. Wilson spent the 2015 season with the Yankees, and has played for several teams since. He’ll be moving across the city, after spending his last two years with the Mets.
Wilson recorded a 2.91 ERA (143 ERA+) across 2019 and 2020 in Queens. His hard-hit percentage (28.3%) was in the 92nd percentile, while his average exit velocity (84.5 mph) ranked in the 96th percentile (Baseball Savant).
As a southpaw, Wilson will also provide another valuable left-handed relief option. The other two left-handed relievers (Britton and Chapman) are solidified as the Yanks’ 8th and 9th inning guys, so Wilson can provide more balance to the rest of the ‘pen in earlier innings.
Long/Mid-Relief: Luis Cessa
Luis Cessa has received ire from Yankee fans for years now, but quietly was one of the team’s best pitchers in the 2020 season. His 130 ERA+ trailed only Gerrit Cole and Zack Britton among Yankee pitchers during the shortened campaign.
According to Baseball Savant, Cessa’s barrel rate dropped from 5.1% in 2019 to 4.4% last season. He also saw his walk rate decrease from 9.0% to 7.5% during 2020. While Cessa likely won’t see many high-risk situations, he still is set to be utilized consistently in lower-leverage spots throughout the year.
Long/Mid-Relief: Jonathan Loaisiga
Jonathan Loaisiga, a.k.a. Johnny Lasagna, will have a similar role as Cessa. He had a solid 2020, with a hard-hit rate and average exit velocity in the 95th percentile (27.3% and 84.6 mph, respectively).
As a former starter, Loaisiga will likely be used as a long-relief option. The Nicaraguan-born righthander was used as an opener several times in 2020. In addition, he’s thrown more than one inning in 11 of his 20 relief appearances since 2019.
Long/Mid-Relief: Michael King
Michael King will likely need to have a strong Spring Training to make the roster, but there’s reason to believe he will. Despite a horrid 2020 (23 ER in 26 and 2/3 innings), he still features a ton of promise.
King threw his sinker nearly 60% of the time last season, but the pitch to really look out for this year will be the changeup. According to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, King worked on the change with pitching coordinator Sam Briend throughout last summer.
The idea was to give the pitch a “different profile” than his fastball, and so far, it’s worked. King made an appearance in Game 3 of the 2020 ALDS, throwing 2 scoreless innings without allowing a baserunner.
Hoch also reported that King altered his slider into a curveball. King will enter 2021 with a completely reworked repertoire, one that could give him a consistent major league role.
Presenting… the 2021 New York Yankees
Now, let’s take an overall look at what the lineup and roster may look like come Opening Day:
Lineup:
- D.J. LeMahieu (2B)
- Aaron Judge (RF)
- Gleyber Torres (SS)
- Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
- Luke Voit (1B)
- Aaron Hicks (CF)
- Clint Frazier (LF)
- Gary Sanchez (C)
- Gio Urshela (3B)
Bench:
- Tyler Wade (2B/SS)
- Kyle Higashioka (C)
- Jay Bruce (1B/OF)
- Mike Tauchman (OF)
Rotation:
- Gerrit Cole (RHP)
- Corey Kluber (RHP)
- Jameson Taillon (RHP)
- Jordan Montgomery (LHP)
- Deivi Garcia (RHP)
Bullpen:
- Michael King (RHP)
- Jonathan Loaisiga (RHP)
- Luis Cessa (RHP)
- Justin Wilson (LHP)
- Darren O’Day (RHP)
- Chad Green (RHP)
- Zack Britton (LHP)
- Aroldis Chapman (LHP)
That looks like a pretty solid team to me. Others seem to agree, with the PECOTA system projecting the Bronx Bombers to win 98 games. They also give the Yanks an 81.5% chance to capture the AL East title.
If one thing is for certain, it’s that the 2021 season cannot come quick enough.
