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Predicting the Yankees’ Opening Day Roster… Again

I originally projected the New York Yankees’ roster for Opening Day nearly a month ago. Naturally, much has changed in that time. So it’s time to take another crack at it, this time with under three weeks until the season begins.

Catchers: Gary Sanchez, Kyle Higashioka

As far as backstops go, not much has changed here. Gary Sanchez has had a strong spring, and will be the starting catcher heading into the year. Kyle Higashioka will be his backup. If anything, Higashioka’s role was solidified even more when Robinson Chirinos went down with a fractured hand.

Sanchez-Higashioka will be the Yankees’ catching tandem once again in 2021.

Infielders: Luke Voit, D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela

This is another group of players that haven’t been hit with any change in the past month. As long as all four of these players are healthy, they will be full-time starters for the Bombers in 2021.

Voit led the majors in home runs last year. LeMahieu has finished in the top five in AL MVP voting in each of the past two seasons. Torres hit 38 home runs, with an .871 OPS, as a 22-year-old shortstop in 2019. Urshela posted 2.1 bWAR in just 43 games last season.

Urshela was the only player of the bunch with really any question marks coming in. After receiving surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, he was eased into Spring Training. However, he has seen plate appearances in several games by this point, and will be ready to go come Opening Day.

Outfielders: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier

Again, no surprises here. These three have been locked in to their starting roles for a long time now, specifically the two Aaron’s.

Frazier was named the starting left fielder heading into the spring by manager Aaron Boone, finally giving him a full-time starting role with the team. His 20 at-bats are among the leaders for Yankee hitters this spring, and his collision with an outfield wall last week seemingly didn’t leave any lingering effects. Still, please stay away from those walls, Clint.

Designated Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton

This one shouldn’t be any surprise either. Stanton is an MVP-caliber hitter, and has hit some absolute missiles this spring. Coming off an incredible postseason (6 home runs), the big slugger is looking to put together a fully healthy campaign in pinstripes. He has played just 41 games in the past two seasons combined.

While he’s listed here as a DH, the team hasn’t exactly ruled out the idea of Stanton returning to the outfield at some point. Stanton himself has said he’s open to the idea, as well. Certainly something to keep an eye on this year, even with the Yankees’ extremely crowded outfield.

Bench: Brett Gardner, Tyler Wade, Jay Bruce

In my last preview, I broke up the bench spots by position, but I’m grouping all three players together now (Higashioka will obviously be on the bench with these guys come Opening Day).

Between last preview and this one, the Yankees brought back Brett Gardner, signing him to a 1-year deal. The veteran will continue to be an extremely valuable presence in the dugout, in addition to being the team’s extra outfielder. This is essentially a perfect role for the aging lefty, who still can provide value both offensively and defensively.

Tyler Wade’s spot is essentially secure. I know, I know. He doesn’t hit. But, he plays solid defense, and he’ll work primarily as the team’s backup shortstop. With nobody else on the roster (besides Torres) who can play the position, Wade isn’t going anywhere.

I originally projected Jay Bruce to make the team in February, and I’m sticking with it. Despite facing competition from Derek Dietrich, Mike Ford, and (to an extent) Mike Tauchman, Bruce should still be the favorite for the final bench spot.

Bruce can play first base, and outfield. He has a solid bat, with a career OPS+ of 108 (although that dropped to 98 across the last two years). As a left-handed power bat, he’s a great fit for Yankee Stadium and the famed short porch. He has a much longer track record than Dietrich or Ford, and more versatility than Tauchman. He’s hitting extremely well in spring, and should still be the favorite to make the team out of those four players.

Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia, Domingo Germán

Compared to my last projection, the original five starters are here, but so is another guy. Domingo Germán has been added to the mix, giving the Yankees a six-man rotation to start the year.

The idea of six starters isn’t unique to the Yankees, with several teams discussing the idea. The leap back to a full season has a lot to do with this. In the case of the Yanks, it can help ease pitchers like Kluber and Taillon back into a full season. The duo both missed significant time with injuries in the past several seasons.

The other reason behind this is simply the talent. Deivi Garcia showed what he can do last year, and his stuff is major-league ready. However, Domingo Germán has returned to the team and dominated this spring. After Monday’s outing, he’s now thrown 9 scoreless innings, with 13 strikeouts compared to just a single walk. His changeup and curveball have both looked extremely impressive.

With the re-emergence of Germán, the Yankees have six MLB-caliber starters, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see all six on the team to start the season.

Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Darren O’Day, Justin Wilson, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Nick Nelson

With six starters, that leaves room for only seven relievers, instead of the usual eight. The first six relievers here were relatively easy, as they all seemed to be locked into their positions. There wouldn’t be a debate at all here if Zack Britton wasn’t injured. But he is, so there’s an extra spot, with multiple candidates to fill it.

Lucas Luetge has become somewhat of a fan favorite this spring, dominating in his five appearances. The left-hander hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2015, and it seems like this year could be his year.

Michael King reworked much of his repertoire in the offseason, and has shown it off during the spring games. However, the final spot may not go to either of these two.

Nick Nelson has been another very impressive pitcher throughout Spring Training. Entering Monday, he had thrown 6 & 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out six with no walks.

Nelson’s offspeed pitches move, a ton. Yes, the point of offspeed pitches are to move. But Nelson’s move a ton.

Nelson’s slider has 4.3 inches above-average of vertical movement, and 5.6 inches above-average of horizontal movement (Baseball Savant). That horizontal movement is 101% (!!) higher than league average. He also features a curveball with a lot of movement (4.7 inches of vertical movement above-average), and a changeup that batters hit just .192 against in 2020.

Naturally, the Yankees are well aware of his stuff. Aaron Boone even went as far to say that Nelson could have an “immediate” role on the major league squad (hence his inclusion here).

This role is obviously not assured by any means. Luetge and King (and others) will continue to battle for that final spot, and a lot can change in nearly three weeks. But if Boone’s words are any indication, Nelson may be the favorite at this point.

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