Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I hope you all are staying safe and healthy this holiday season. This Thanksgiving, I am thankful for the game of football. So often we have taken sports for granted, but as this year has proven, we should cherish every moment. So while many may complain about this year’s slate of early games, let’s just be thankful we get to watch some good old fashioned football.

Texans-Lions (12:30 PM)

A tradition as old as time. The Lions playing a meaningless game in the early slate. If the Lions had won last week against the Panthers, this would have been a lot more interesting. But, instead, they threw up a dud, falling 20-0. After four straight wins on Thanksgiving, the Lions have dropped each of their last two games on turkey day. Meanwhile. Houston has won two of their last three games, capped off by a big upset win over the Patriots.

While most of the team has struggled, QB Deshaun Watson has thrived. While completing 68.9% of his passes, Watson has totaled 22 touchdowns to just five interceptions. Neither of these secondaries are great, but I like the offensive weapons the Texans have a bit more here. The Lions are banged up and there is too much uncertainty going into Thursday. Too much Watson. Lay the Texans and the points.

The pick: Texans 27, Lions 21

Washington FT-Cowboys (4:30 PM)

While it may look ugly on its surface, this battle between two 3-7 teams has more on the line than it should. In the NFC East this year, 3-7 puts you at just a half-game behind the division-leading Philadelphia Eagles. A win in this game is huge because looking around, the Eagles play the Seahawks. A presumed loss there could put one of these two teams in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, the Giants play the Joe Burrow-less Bengals, so it could be a tie. Either way, this game has major playoff implications. Last Sunday, the Cowboys won their first full game without QB Dak Prescott, and we finally saw a fully healthy Andy Dalton. Dalton finished 22/32 for 203 yards, three touchdowns, and one INT.

Dallas also got good production from Ezekiel Elliott, who carried 21 times for 103 yards. If these two continue, I love the rest of the weapons for this offense. The issue then becomes stopping on defense. Alex Smith and Washington have been rolling lately as well, dropping two games by a field goal before a 20-9 win over the Bengals. Smith hasn’t been great, but his calming, veteran presence provides Washington with a chance to make the postseason. Their defense has also been stellar with great defensive line pressure anchored by Chase Young and a secondary with big-play abilities. Expect a low scoring, grind it out affair. I trust Dalton and his offense a little more than Smith right now.

The pick: Cowboys 17, Washington FT 13

Ravens-Steelers (8:20 PM)

The adding of a third Thanksgiving game has been huge. It gives us a chance to sit down after some delicious pumpkin pie and keep watching football. This game should not disappoint. The 10-0 Steelers taking on the 6-4 Ravens that have struggled lately. Baltimore has lost back-to-back big games against the Patriots and Titans, leading to questions about their ability in big moments. With an easy schedule down the stretch, this may be our last time to truly evaluate Baltimore. The Ravens are already without RB Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins, who tested positive for COVID-19, as well as more players likely to miss the game if it is played. The Ravens canceled practice on Tuesday, so even if the game goes on, they will be severely undermanned.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are cooking. Led by a stout defense and plenty of offensive weapons, it seems to be coming down to the Chiefs and Steelers in the AFC as of now. Although I had my doubts about Big Ben, he has looked as good as ever. The main argument against Pittsburgh is an easy schedule but hey, you play the teams in front of you. And the Steelers have beaten the Titans, Eagles, Ravens, and Browns, all playoff-caliber teams. Baltimore has played well away from home this year, but they are just too short-staffed to compete with the Steelers, who are rolling. Fully healthy this would feel like a trap, but Lamar Jackson would have to throw for 300+ yards to win this game without his two best running backs, and I don’t see that happening.

The pick: Steelers 31, Ravens 21