Thank you, Nebraska for bringing back Big Ten Football so we’re able to watch these two incredible football programs play Saturday afternoon in West Lafayette. Purdue vs Nebraska is only one step above Michigan vs Penn State.

Both teams had a lot of hype from their fanbases coming into 2020. So far Nebraska is sitting at 1-4 with their lone win coming against Penn State. Purdue, despite a quick 2-0 start, has lost three in a row including late losses to Minnesota and Rutgers. The state of both programs has never been more in question than it is currently. That makes this “battle of the bastards” a must-win for both teams.

What to watch for: Purdue

Defense, defense, and more defense

This seems to be a common theme in this series. Bob Diaco might be the most hated man in West Lafayette and every week fans double down on that stance.

After Jeff Brohm fired Nick Holt last offseason, there was a lot of optimism for the Purdue defense going forward. Maybe it’s first-year growing pains and the talent to properly execute Diaco’s scheme isn’t there yet, but going off of his track record, his scheme might just be bad.

The D-line has had issues pressuring the quarterback and that’s been their single biggest problem. It doesn’t matter how good your secondary is if the opposing quarterback can stand in the pocket until someone gets open.

Against Rutgers, wildcat quarterback Joey Langen ran all over the Purdue defense in the second half. Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffery are both mobile quarterbacks who are more threatening than Langen. If Purdue can force even a little bit of pressure, then look for them to have a great game against Nebraska. If the pressure problem persists, it’s going to be another long game for Boilermaker fans.

Zander Horvath

One of the few bright spots for Purdue this year has been former walk-on running back, Zander Horvath. Purdue does rank dead last in the conference in rushing but Horvath has shown a lot of potential in all areas this year.

In his last six games, he’s rushed for over 100 yards four times. With three of those being this season. Northwestern was able to completely shut down Horvath on the ground but he was able to make his presence known through the passing game with nine catches for 100 yards.

Horvath might be the most underrated running back in the Big Ten. If he can keep the momentum going from his 101-yard rushing performance against Rutgers, it should take a lot of pressure off of Jack Plummer and allow star receivers, Rondale Moore and David Bell, take over.

What to watch for: Nebraska

The quarterback, whoever it is

Adrian Martinez was the starter, then Luke McCaffery was the starter, then Martinez was back, then they split snaps. No one really knows what’s going on at the quarterback position including Scott Frost. Regardless of who’s starting under center, it’s safe to assume that either one will be able to do what they please against the Purdue defense (see reasoning above). Adrian Martinez looked like a quarterback that Nebraska could win with against Iowa last weekend. He was 18-20 for 174 yards while rushing for 28 and a score. Although he’ll likely split time with McCaffery again, Martinez is the kind of quarterback that can give this Purdue defense fits.

History

Scott Frost hasn’t had really any success against Jeff Brohm. Nebraska was one of Darrell Hazel’s two Big Ten wins and Jeff Brohm has beaten them two of his three seasons. With Brohm’s lone loss being in his first year after blowing a late fourth-quarter lead. Frost seems to struggle against Brohm and if you’re planning on betting this game that’s something that you should take into consideration.

Predictions

Purdue is a 1.5 point favorite as of 1:40 pm on 12/3. Every Purdue game has been decided by seven points or less this season. Neither of these teams gives any reason for excitement and there’s not much to pull you one way or another. Both of these teams can give up points. The o/u is set at 61.5 and I’d hammer the over there. I expect Nebraska to win solely because they’re going to be better on defense. Nebraska +1.5 and the over feels like the bet in my very amateur opinion.

You can watch the game at Noon eastern on the Big Ten Network Saturday. Follow me on Twitter @twitch_35 for live tweets and reactions from the press box.