This Thanksgiving isn’t what we’re used to in the Big Ten. Usually, at this time we’re getting ready for bowl speculations and a big rivalry weekend. But because of the delayed start, this weekend is any other in the Big Ten with Purdue hosting Rutgers for the first time ever.
When the original schedule came out back in January this was one of the few games Purdue fans thought they could chalk up as a win. Although Purdue is the only Big Ten school Rutgers has a winning record against since joining the conference, (1-0), last year’s Rutgers squad was one of the worst in the conference’s history. However, with Greg Schiano back as head coach, Rutgers looks much improved and ready to give teams trouble.
What to watch for
Noah Vedral vs Purdue’s D-line
For the first time in a long time, Rutgers has a functional quarterback in Noah Vedral. Vedral has been the key to Rutgers being able to move the ball a little bit this season. He’s thrown for 1,104 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Purdue’s defense has gotten little to no pressure on any quarterback this season. With star defensive end, George Karlaftis, out with Covid-19, look for Vedral to have all the time in the world on Saturday afternoon.
Defense vs Offense
The classic battle. You know, one of the only guarantees in football is that one team’s defense will try to stop the other team’s offense from scoring any points. Rutgers defense is faced with the task of stopping the Big Ten’s best offense (320.8 yards per game). Rutgers gives up the most points per game in the conference and struggles specifically against the pass. Purdue’s greatest strength is their passing attack with wide receivers Rondale Moore and David Bell leading the charge.
Rondale Moore and David Bell
The wide receiver duo is a nightmare for opposing secondaries but last week was one of the first times they’ve been able to be on the field at the same time. Both seem to have injury issues when the other is fully healthy but they’re both 100% and ready to feast on the Rutgers defense. When Greg Schiano was the defensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2018, Moore torched the Buckeyes defense for 12 receptions, 170 yards, and two touchdowns. A defense that was much more talented than the one Schiano currently has.
Rutgers was able to force seven turnovers against Michigan State in their season-opening win but has only forced two since. They’ll need to play one of their most complete games as a unit if they want to leave West Lafayette with a win on Saturday. If this game becomes a shootout, don’t expect Rutgers to be able to pull it out.
Bob Diaco
Diaco was hired as Purdue’s new defensive coordinator in the offseason. So far this season his defense has shown flashes of brilliance mixed with sheer disappointment. They’ve been able to get stops in big moments but give up a lot of long drives and often times give little resistance to the opposing team’s offense. Rutgers is a scrappy team. They like to hang around a keep fighting even when it seems like they’re out of it. An offensive lineman scored a touchdown down big against Ohio State. They also had a wild lateral go for a touchdown late against Indiana, it was later called back. Rutgers knows they’re not as talented as the rest of the Big Ten and they’re not afraid to get tricky to try and level the playing field. A characteristic that Purdue offenses have been known for under Jeff Brohm.
The Diaco led defense is going to have to stay locked in for four quarters to avoid another shootout. If they ease off the gas even a little bit, Rutgers is going to take advantage.
Prediction
As of 3:30 pm EST on Friday, Purdue is an 11 point favorite. If you’re a gambler, betting Rutgers to cover an 11 point spread is probably a good move. Purdue seems to struggle as a double-digit favorite and this has all the makings of a potential upset. If I had to give a score, I’d say Purdue wins 34-30 but Rutgers does cover.
The game kicks off Saturday at 4 pm EST on Fox Sports 1.