Come one, come all to the highly anticipated Big Ten matchup at the Value City Arena in Columbus, Ohio, where the No. 1 ranked Purdue Boilermakers will face off against the No. 24 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Boilermakers, fresh off a heart-wrenching loss to Rutgers at home, will be eager to redeem themselves, while the Buckeyes, winners of their last three games, will be looking to maintain their winning streak. Despite the Buckeyes being favored as a 1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 141.5, this match is sure to be a thrilling one. Read on for my full analysis and betting prediction for this Big Ten showdown!
Purdue Boilermakers
The Purdue Boilermakers have had a fantastic start to the 2022/2023 campaign. Purdue has wins over Marquette, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke. A very successful start from their non-conference schedule, but now they get into the grit of the Big Ten schedule. Purdue will look to bounce back with a road victory over the Buckeyes who are undefeated at home this season. The Boilermakers are led by center Zach Edey. Edey averages 21.7 points per game (9th in the nation) and adds 13.4 rebounds per game (2nd in the nation).
Matt Painter’s club lost two key pieces from last year’s team, but this year they are still a very good team. The only other Purdue player in double figures is guard Fletcher Loyer. However, I think that Braden Smith is the second best player on this team. In the five games that Smith has double figures, the Boilermakers are 5-0 in those games. Purdue is 3-2 in their last five meetings at Ohio State. Edey and company will need to bring their best efforts to win their second Big Ten road game of the season.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Chris Holtmann is in his sixth season at Ohio State and is looking to continue his winning ways with a good Big Ten conference showdown. Ohio State averages 81 points per game which is 28th in the nation. The Buckeyes are led by freshman forward Brice Sensabaugh. Sensabaugh averages 15.9 points per game to go along with 4.5 RPG on 52.8% from the field and 46.6% from beyond the three point line.
The two other key players on this Buckeyes team are forward Justice Sueing and forward Zed Key. Key averages 13.4 points per game and he adds 8.4 rebounds per game as well. Sueing averages 13.5 points per game to go along with 5 rebounds per game. Ohio State will need their defense to step up in a big way. They go up against one of the better big men in college basketball, but Purdue averages less than 10 turnovers a game. Ohio State needs the turnovers to come if they want to have a chance at the upset win at home.
Betting Trends
-Under is 6-2 in Purdue’s last 8 road games.
-Purdue is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
-Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record.
-Over is 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 home games.
The Don’s Prediction
This game is going to be a dogfight. I think this Big Ten battle will be a great one overall on the Thursday slate. I think that the under 141.5 in this one is the play. This will be too close to take a side and I think the under is too high for the line. I have this total down at like 136 so that is a 5.5 point difference. Take the under and I think the line or lean I would take Ohio State. The line is screaming to take Purdue, they are the better team why wouldn’t you take the better team catching points. Vegas wants you to do that so Ohio State is the play. Can’t pull the trigger overall, but take the under which is the official play in this one.
Here are all of my plays for the rest of the day.
