As we head into the weekend, 16 teams remain in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Those 16 include some usual suspects, and some… unexpected faces. The average seed for this year’s Sweet 16 is the highest number the tournament has ever seen. Upsets have been the story of March this year. When you reach this point of the tournament, you begin to reevaluate the remaining teams. The groups that are left standing aren’t the same teams they were 2 weeks ago when the selection committee made their decisions. Let’s take this time to properly re-rank the 16 teams that remain.
16. Oral Roberts
It pains me to do this. This year’s truest Cinderella is still dancing, and the Golden Eagles are no joke. Only the second 15 seed to ever make the Sweet 16, Oral Roberts doesn’t play like a typical mid-major. What makes them so dangerous, and why I think they might be able to win another game this week, is the fact that they have 2 high level scorers.
By now America is starting to learn about Max Abmas. D1’s leading scorer is a dynamic guard that’s getting a chance to shine on the big stage. The other name that’s emerging is Kevin Obanor. Obanor was right beside Abmas all year, averaging 19 points a game himself. In the first two rounds, it’s really been Obanor leading the charge. I’m not sure if the Golden Eagles will continue to make history, but if they do it’ll have something to do with those two.
15. Oregon State
So maybe the Beavers weren’t just “bid-stealers.” They dominated Tennessee for 40 minutes, then did nearly the same thing against Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State. Wayne Tinkle has his group playing their best brand of basketball at the right time. The matchup with Loyola Chicago should be a very interesting one to breakdown. The Beavers have been unconscious shooting the ball over the last month, and the Ramblers will suffocate you on defense and force tough shots. For now, Oregon State still comes in on the lower end of the remaining teams, but another strong performance could see them shoot up the list.
14. UCLA
UCLA might be the most difficult team remaining to assess. They showed immense toughness in their thriller against Michigan State in the play-in game. Following that, the Bruins handled BYU from start to finish, and then coasted against an Abilene Christian team that looked like it exerted all of its energy knocking off Texas. There’s some serious talent on this roster, led by Johnny Juzang and Tyger Campbell. Mick Cronin is proving again just how good of a coach he is at this level. Alabama is a team that embraces the “live by the three, die by the three” mentality. If the Bruins catch them on an off night from outside, I think there’s a decent chance they keep their run alive.
13. Syracuse
There’s something about Syracuse in March, man. It seems like every year this happens with these guys. We debate the whole year about their bubble status, they slide into the field, and then they make a run as a double-digit seed. This year, the Orange have reached the Sweet 16 largely in part to guard Buddy Boeheim. If the tournament ended today, I think most people would agree that he has been the most outstanding player. Since the calendar hit March, Buddy has been automatic. He’s playing with immense confidence, which is a shooter’s best attribute. This team is by no means perfect, but if Boeheim continues to shoot like he has, and guys like Marek Dolezaj, Joe Girard and Quincy Guerrier continue to do their jobs, this ‘Cuse team is capable of beating just about any team in the field.
12. Villanova
Jay Wright’s group heard the noise about them being a trendy upset pick last week. They responded by handling Winthrop and then completely dismantling North Texas. I think the reaction to Collin Gillespie’s season ending injury made a lot of people forget that this is still a very talented roster. Even without Gillespie, the Wildcats have a number of guys that can beat you, and they are all capable of shooting the three ball. Experience and coaching definitely come in handy when you reach this level of the tournament, and Nova has both. Nonetheless, this is still a group that has only played double-digit seeds, is playing short-handed, and is about to face their biggest test yet when they line up against Baylor on Sunday.
11. Arkansas
This one will likely land as a bold take. Despite being a 3 seed, there are a lot of teams remaining in the field that I’d take over the Razorbacks right now. This is an incredibly talented team, no doubt, but if the first two rounds have shown us anything, it’s that this squad is streaky. Colgate was able to blitz Arkansas early, and forced the Hogs to climb out of a hole before ultimately handling the 14th seeded Raiders. In the next round, Texas Tech was left for dead before Arkansas went cold and allowed another group of Raiders to make a furious comeback that just fell short. Arkansas needs to put together a complete 40 minutes before I can really start to take them seriously as title contenders.
10. Creighton
Another team that many people felt might be a first-round upset, the Bluejays enter the Sweet 16 coming off of wins against UC-Santa Barbara and Ohio. Starting guard Marcus Zegarowski might be the most underrated player left in the field. I had pretty high expectations for this Creighton group before the year started, so it’s nice to see them still in the field. Ultimately, I’m not sure how much longer their run continues. They’ve got a date with the tournament’s top seed, and will need to play their best brand of basketball if they hope to move on to the Elite 8.
9. Houston
This isn’t as much a knock on the Cougars as it is a nod to how much talent is left in the field. The 2 seed in the Midwest region plays a tough brand of basketball, and they attack the glass like crazy. Quentin Grimes continues to shine as the star on the offensive end. What’s holding me back is the result from their second round matchup against Rutgers. The way Houston rallied was incredibly impressive, but it’s not crazy to say that Rutgers gave the game away a little bit. As we get deeper into the tournament, teams won’t be coughing up late leads like that, so the Cougars will have to come out of gates swinging.
8. Florida State
It’s been smooth sailing to this point for the Seminoles. Leonard Hamilton always seems to get the best out of his teams around this time of the year. Scottie Barnes continues to show off his stellar basketball IQ paired with his athletic abilities. I don’t know that Florida State is a top tier team remaining in this field, but they’re close. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose to Michigan on Sunday, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see them come out of the East region.
7. Alabama
We saw the explosiveness that Alabama’s offense can unleash last weekend against Maryland. When the Tide scores in the 90s, it’s basically over for the other group. This team loves to shoot threes, and they were knocking them down last weekend. Jahvon Quinerly continues to shine at the point, as he dished out 11 assists against the Terps. Herb Jones is one of the most interesting players remaining. The SEC Player of the Year doesn’t need to be ball-dominant to have an impact on a game. The Tide should get by UCLA, and I’m curious to see how much longer they stick around.
6. Oregon
Let’s all collectively apologize to the PAC 12. When the East Coast was going to bed, the “Conference of Champions” was duking it out amongst themselves. Among the teams we vastly disrespected is Oregon. The Ducks won the PAC 12 regular season title, and they’ve only dropped 6 games all year. They were rewarded with a 7 seed in the tournament. After advancing to the second round due to VCU’s Covid-19 issues, Oregon dominated Iowa. In every area of the game, the Ducks were simply better than the Hawkeyes. Chris Duarte is one of the best players in America, and I’m excited to see him play in the bright lights this weekend.
5. Loyola-Chicago
Speaking of criminally under seeded teams… It’s offensive that the Ramblers were given an 8 seed this year. They hung around the top 25 for most of the year, and made the committee look silly after putting Illinois in basketball hell for 40 minutes. This is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, and they play cohesively on the offensive end. The power of Sister Jean is clearly nothing to play with, and it helps when you have a guy like Cameron Krutwig on the floor. He looks like he should be giving college kids 40 at the rec center, but instead he chose to do it to D1 athletes. Krutwig is going to be remembered as one of the classic college players of this era, and I’m fully ok with that.
4. USC
In my opinion, USC stands out as the most impressive team of the first week. The Trojans kept Drake at bay all game, and then ran a clinic against Kansas. We all know how good Evan Mobley is, and he’s done nothing but prove that so far. Let’s also recognize how stellar his brother Isaiah has been this week, too. When the two of them are in sync, it’s a nightmare scenario for anybody playing them. USC’s length and versatility make them capable of forcing any team to adjust to them. I’m incredibly interested to see how far the 6th seeded team in the West can make it.
3. Michigan
A popular pick to be the first #1 seed to lose, I think a lot of people forgot how good this Michigan group is. Not having Isaiah Livers hurts a ton, but this team is not short on talent. Franz Wagner is a stud. Hunter Dickinson has an old-school attitude and game on the low block. Eli Brooks shoots it among the best of them from three point range. Juwon Howard has done an excellent job with this team, and after a comeback victory over LSU, they don’t look like they’re done yet. Michigan has a chance to carry the entire Big 10 on their shoulders this weekend.
2. Baylor
The Bears look like they’re finally getting back to the form they were in before a Covid-induced program pause. They cruised against Hartford and then handled Wisconsin from start to finish. Scott Drew has a three-headed monster rotating at the guard spot between Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell. The rest of the roster knows how to play their role to perfection. Butler still hasn’t had his breakout March game yet, and I think it’s only a matter of time before that happens. This group is hitting their stride, and I would hate to be in their area of the bracket right now.
1. Gonzaga
Unsurprisingly, it’s the Zags that hold the top spot in these rankings. I’ve talked a lot about the Bulldogs in some other pieces this year, and I still stand by those remarks. This team is just so good. They did exactly what you expect the top overall seed to do in the opening weekend. Whether it’s Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, Joel Ayayi, or even Andrew Nembhard; somebody on this team is capable of going nuclear at any moment. Mark Few is on the short list of coaches that should have a championship that don’t yet, and I continue to believe this will be the team that gets him that ring.