In the words of Nick Hoult in Mad Max: Fury Road, “WHAT A DAY. WHAT A LOVELY DAY.”
Not only did we get the nominations for the 95th Academy Awards, the 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame inductees are announced. As exciting as the Baseball Hall of Fame is, I’m here to talk about the Oscars and what films and actors and actresses could win on March 12.
Best Picture
A few weeks ago, I predicted what films I thought would be nominated for Best Picture. I predicted seven of them correctly. My predictions of She Said, The Whale, and Nope being nominated didn’t come to fruition and it was kind of foolish of me to not think of Avatar: The Way of Water as a Best Picture nominee.
The Favorites
Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Schienert): Everything Everywhere All At Once has been hailed by many movie fans as the best film of 2022. While I don’t necessarily agree, it is a beautiful work of cinema. It’s ability to couple complexity with waggish moments is great. I’d say that the Daniel Duo and EEAAO is the front runner for Best Picture.
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh): The last time a movie with a real comedic presence won Best Picture was at the 87th Academy Awards when Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) won. Comedies don’t farewell in this category, but The Banshees of Inisherin is loved by many. It features great performances from Farrell, Condon, Gleeson, and Keoghan and that could be enough to win Best Picture.
The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg): With The Fabelmans being Steven Spielbergs love letter to his career and acknowledging his early career in cinema, this feels like it could be the big winner. To me, it’s a bit too schmaltzy and I don’t love a lot of the characters involved. There are great scenes, but the movie as a whole doesn’t make me think it should win Best Picture.
The Snubs
Baylon (Damien Chazelle): Baylon hive, rise up. When it comes to the aspect of having fun at the theater this year, Top Gun: Maverick holds the crown, but Babylon is a close second. It is Chazelle’s note of appreciation for film while also being a giant F you to Hollywood. The multiple storylines tying together works perfectly in my eyes and the character arcs of Margot Robbie, Diego Calva, Brad Pitt, and Jovan Adepo were outstanding. I’d say it’s a true tragedy that it didn’t get nominated.
Nope (Jordan Peele): I’m baffled that Nope was completely shutout of the Oscars. Truly stunned. I think it should have been nominated for Best Picture, but it didn’t even get a nomination for Best Visual Effects. How? Just how? In the small catalog of Jordan Peele films, Nope is a close second to Get Out which was nominated in 2017, and I found Nope to be more entertaining and a better movie than Triangle of Sadness and Tár. This is a massive knock against the Academy.
Best Actor
Films were revived this year. The past few years had been stifled by the pandemic, but 2022 was a year of clarity for people returning to the theater. They were driven by outstanding performances from many talented actors and it feels cruel to only be able to pick five performances for Best Actor. For the most part, I think the Academy got this category right. For the most part.
The Favorites
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin: Farrell won Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes so this shoots him towards the top of the favorites. Farrell gave a good performance that showed range in this film. He showed that he can swap between being funny and emotional in the blink of an eye. He’s not my pick for Best Actor, but he’s a great candidate.
Brendan Fraser in The Whale: This is my pick. Liking films is objective, but this is the correct pick. It’s not just because the Brenaissance is on, it’s because his performance is unreal. His role in The Whale is the best of his career because he exudes so much emotion. He shows the trials and tribulations of an overweight gay man that can be happy, yet depressed. I adored this performance.
Austin Butler in Elvis: Butler took home Best Actor in a Drama at the Golden Globes and gave a bizarre speech as Elvis. Nevertheless, his performance was really good. I actually admire his performance in the second half of the film more because it’s more dramatic and shows a man that’s losing everything and is dying. Butler shaking his hips and singing is impressive, but him playing a dying Elvis was entertaining.
The Snubs
Ralph Fiennes in The Menu: How did he not get nominated? I mean really? Much like Babylon and Nope, The Menu got exiled from any nomination. Ralph Fiennes was great in his role in The Menu because he presented a terrifying vibe behind a subdued and calm exterior. His performance in this film was better than both Paul Mescal in Aftersun and Bill Nighy in Living.
Best Actress
Much like Best Actor, Best Actress is a loaded category like the 1983 quarterback draft class. STACKED. There are two clear favorites for this award and I think the five nominees were deserved, but I could make a legitimate and fair argument that three other actresses could have been nominated. A lot of great actresses delivered a lot of great performances in 2022.
The Favorites
Cate Blanchett in Tár: Like I mentioned, it’s a two actress race and Cate Blanchett in Tár feels like the favorite. Her performance is an absolute rollercoaster as you see Lydia Társ career rise and fall. She’s been great in so many films in the past like The Talented Mr. Ripley and The Aviator and she deserves this award in my opinion.
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once: While I think Cate Blanchett deserves to win Best Actress, I wouldn’t be upset if Michelle Yeoh won. I liked her performance in EEAAO because at every turn, she surprises you. You don’t expect her to be this badass in multiple dimensions, but she is. She’s definitely aided by great writing, but she did deliver a memorable performance.
The Snubs
Margot Robbie in Babylon: Look, I understand that people didn’t love Babylon, but how do you not nominate Margot Robbie. Her performance was jammed with charismatic dialogue and vibrant acting. She exuded an aura of confidence that not many other actresses would be able to showcase. Her character goes through the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, and her emotions made you actually feel invested in the plot.
Anya Taylor-Joy in The Menu: The Academy must have loathed The Menu because it included two of the year’s top performances and neither got a nod. It’s a damn shame. Taylor-Joy’s character was meant to have a quick wit and cockiness/sass that she emitted. If you watch The Menu, you’ll see that both her and Fiennes were splendid.
My Ballot
Now I don’t actually have a ballot, but I like to play hypotheticals. Everyone who is a movie fan does it every year, so here’s who I would vote for at the 95th Academy Awards.
Best Picture: All Quiet On The Western Front (Edward Berger)
I don’t think that All Quiet On The Western Front will win, but it’s a hell of a picture. I’m not even going to discuss the other films nominated because some of them are great pictures, but All Quiet On The Western Front is a modern day masterpiece. It’s the best war film since 1917 came out in 2019 and I’d even argue it’s better. The scenes in the trenches are awesome and the hand to hand combat scenes are so realistic and tense to watch. Many of the shots of the battlefield are visually stunning to look at. Edward Berger is a genius.
Best Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Schienert with Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Daniel Duo made a dynamite picture with Everything Everywhere All At Once and I feel are deserving of the award. Their cinematography coupled with great writing to create a complex, yet at times whimsical picture was great. When I look at the other nominations, I have no qualms about the Daniel’s winning Best Director.
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Looking at the five nominees, I think it comes down to three men. Austin Butler in Elvis, Brendan Fraser in The Whale, and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin. My pick is Brendan Fraser in The Whale. The Brenaissance is on and not even Austin Butler talking with a southern accent can stop it. Fraser delivered a riveting performance that’s packed with so much emotion and is tremendously layered.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett in Tár
I think Best Actress comes down to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once and Cate Blanchett in Tár. Yeoh was outstanding in EEAAO, but Blanchett was the big winner of 2022. Her performance as Lydia Tár was compelling and intense and made many fall in love with her as an actress. The scene where she goes to the brothel at the end of the movie and throws up is an unreal piece of acting and should be enough to win her the award.
Best Supporting Actor: Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
I would contend that Best Supporting Actor is the most competitive category this season. Both actors nominated for The Banshees of Inisherin were amazing and Ke Huy Quan in EEAAO was dynamite. I’d personally be fine if Keoghan, Gleeson, or Quan won, but my vote is for Barry Keoghan. What a performance. He’s so eccentric as the islands misfit and the scene where he asks Kerry Condons character out is an uncomfortably awesome work of acting.
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau in The Whale
What year for Hong Chau. I think she could have received two nominations for Best Supporting Actress in The Whale and in The Menu. Her performance in The Whale I found to be superior and that’s what got her the nomination. Much like Fraser, Chau gives a performance that’s filled with so much emotion. Her characters exterior is harsh, but deep down, she’s a caring individual who has suffered a lot of loss in her life. Just a heart wrenching and moving role.
Best Animated Feature Film: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On (Dean Fleischer Camp)
What more do I need to say about Marcel The Shell With Shoes On? It was my favorite film of 2022 because of its heartfelt nature and quirky characters. Dean Fleischer Camp struck gold with this movie that had me crying in theaters.
Best Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Schienert)
The category for Best Original Screenplay is a packed one and I think that The Fabelmans is probably the front runner to win because it is Steven Spielbergs love letter to cinema and how one of the greatest directors ever got into film. That won’t stop me from voting for Everything Everywhere All At Once though. The writing in this film by the Daniel Duo is so innovative and tight. In a film where we see the characters shifting dimensions, it seems like you could poke plot holes. Not in EEAAO. It’s a clean script with minimal flaws.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie)
Much like Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay is loaded. While I did pick All Quiet On The Western Front to win Best Picture, I think Top Gun: Maverick should win Best Adapted Screenplay. It was a film that captivated the nation and resurged movie theaters with great action sequences. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie revived the theater going experience with a great plot and clean writing.
Best International Film: All Quiet On The Western Front (Edward Berger)
It’s my winner for Best Picture and with it being the only foreign film nominated for Best Picture, I think it should win in a landslide.