SEC Bowl Predictions

Tonight the SEC’s bowl slate kicks off when the Missouri Tigers face the Texas Longhorns in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl. It’s the first of nine certain bowl game for the conference, although I’m sure league officials will be pulling for a tenth should Georgia or Alabama (or both) win in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Will it just mean more bowl victories for the Southeastern Conference this holiday season? Tonight, we get closer to finding out. Here are my predictions for the SEC’s games this bowl season:

 

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl: Missouri vs. Texas

This game is very intriguing to me. Texas comes in at 6-6, with quarterback Sam Ehlinger faring well as of late (38-66, 375 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions combined against West Virginia and Texas Tech). He’ll need a mammoth game to match Drew Lock, who is one of the more underrated NFL draft prospects in the 2018 class, should he enter. This season, Lock has thrown for 3,695 yards, 43 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He’s the biggest reason why Missouri won six in a row and averaged 51.3 PPG in those six to close the season. Barry Odom did an impressive job turning around this Tigers team after an awful 1-5 start. Texas’ star safety DeShon Elliott is sitting out tonight, which will put a dent in a Longhorns defense that needs to be at its best. It’ll be a shoot-out, but I’ll take the Tigers. Missouri 38, Texas 34.

 

Belk Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M

Listen, I really like the Texas A&M program. I think they made a great move going to get Jimbo Fisher, and that hire will put the Aggies on another level very soon. That being said, I don’t know how much I trust this team. Wake Forest John Wolford has played spectacularly in the second half of the year, and he’ll go against a Texas A&M secondary that allows 224 passing yards a game. If A&M wants to win, they’ll need to rely on their stable of running backs such as Trayveon Williams (733 yards this year) and Keith Ford (493 yards this year). Nick Starkel will probably start this game at quarterback, and he’ll need to control the football against an opportunistic Demon Deacons defense (+7 turnover margin this year). It’s tough, but at the end of the day, I’m not sure how motivated Texas A&M will be without Kevin Sumlin on the sideline. Wake Forest 23, Texas A&M 20.

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs. #21 Northwestern

When bowl games were announced, this game seemed the most lopsided to me. Kentucky is a 7-5, and were blown out in their last two games against Georgia and Louisville. Enter the ever-consistent Wildcats of Northwestern, who have won seven in a row. Quarterback Clayton Thorson has been throwing the ball much better as of late, and he’ll have a chance to tee off against a Kentucky secondary that is 112th in passing yards allowed per game. If Kentucky wants a chance to win, they’ll need to lean on Benny Snell, Jr., the talented running back who has rushed for over 1,300 yards this season. If Snell goes for 100+ against a good Northwestern run defense, Kentucky has a chance. Unfortunately for the SEC Wildcats, I don’t see that happening. Northwestern 34, Kentucky 17.

 

Taxslayer Bowl: Louisville vs. #23 Mississippi State

Mississippi State is a good football team.

There’s a reason they gave Alabama a run for their money back in an early November meeting in Starkville. That being said, the Bulldogs are completely overmatched. Mississippi State is missing their head coach, Dan Mullen, who bolted for Florida. They’re without all-world quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who suffered a horrific injury against Ole Miss in the regular season finale. Most importantly, the Bulldogs are without Todd Grantham, who left Starkville and followed Mullen to Gainesville. Without Grantham, I’m not sure how Mississippi State will be able to create enough schemes to slow down Louisville’s Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been just as good this year as he was in last year’s Heisman campaign, throwing for 3,489 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions while also running for 1,443 yards and 17 scores. As a whole, Mississippi State’s team is better. Seriously, Louisville is Lamar Jackson and everyone else. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Lamar Jackson by himself will still be too much. Louisville 40, Mississippi State 24.

 

Outback Bowl: Michigan vs. South Carolina

This game is going to be absolutely disgusting. Seriously, this game will be very, very ugly. Michigan’s offensive challenges are well advertised, as the Wolverines only average 25.8 points per game. South Carolina isn’t much better, at 24.1 points a contest. The Gamecocks have the better quarterback in Jake Bentley, but the worse defense. Here’s the differing stat–Michigan yards allowed per game: 268.6; South Carolina yards allowed per game: 374.6. I’ll take the better defense in an extremely physical, low-scoring contest. Michigan 17, South Carolina 10.

 

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: #12 UCF vs. #7 Auburn

There are so many storylines in this game that could be potential “distractions” for both teams. For UCF, their head coach Scott Frost has been coaching two full-time jobs–at UCF and at Nebraska, where he’ll go after this game. Scott Frost isn’t the only one, though; seven of the Golden Knights’ coaches will be coming with Frost to Lincoln. How focused are they be and how in-depth will the game plan be against Auburn? We’ll see. For the Tigers, it’s all about motivation. After a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship, their bowl game destination is…Atlanta again. Kerryon Johnson also hasn’t been cleared to play yet, so that could hamper their offense. It’ll be an interesting game because UCF has more speed than Auburn will be expecting. But at the end of the day, the UCF defense won’t be able to keep up. They’ve allowed 48.5 points per game in their last two outing against Memphis and South Florida. We’ll see the Auburn offense explode on New Year’s Day. Auburn 42, UCF 27.

 

Citrus Bowl: #14 Notre Dame vs. #17 LSU

Perhaps the most intriguing non-playoff game for the SEC, the Citrus Bowl features a rematch from the classic 2014 Music City Bowl between LSU and Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have gotten a lot of love this season, and rightfully so, but in November their rushing defense was exposed. They’ll go against a healthy Derrius Guice, who rushed for 1,153 yards and 11 scores this season. The Irish secondary will also be tested by Danny Etling, who performed surprisingly well to close the season. Against Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, he threw for a combined 41-61, 645 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Notre Dame hasn’t gotten consistent play from quarterback Brandon Wimbush in November, and now he’ll be going against a tough LSU defense only allowing 18.8 points per game. I’m not sure he’ll be able to turn it around against the Bayou Bengals. LSU 26, Notre Dame 13.

 

Rose Bowl: #3 Georgia vs. #2 Oklahoma

“The Granddaddy of Them All” features what will almost certainly be a classic contest. We all know about Heisman winner Baker Mayfield, who threw for 41 touchdowns this year to only five interceptions. We know about the vaunted Georgia defense, who is fourth overall and second in passing yards allowed per game. This game will come down to whether or not Oklahoma can stop Georgia. The Bulldogs’ best defense will be holding onto the football and sustaining drives. They’ll do this by pounding Nick Chubb and Sony Michel against a Sooners defense ranked 42nd in stopping the run. If the Sooners can figure out a way to win time of possession, they’ll win this game. I don’t think they will, though, and that makes it a toss-up. Don’t call me an SEC-homer, but I have a genuine feeling that Georgia will win this game. Jake Fromm impressed me in the SEC Championship, and Bulldogs fans will control the majority of the Rose Bowl to make this feel like a home atmosphere. As good as Baker Mayfield is, and I think he’ll get his 30 points, I still believe the Georgia offense will outscore Oklahoma after Roquan Smith and the Dawg defense get a few key stops in the second half. Georgia 38, Oklahoma 30.

 

Allstate Sugar Bowl: #1 Clemson vs. #4 Alabama

As an Alabama student and fan, I’m freaking out about this game. As a lover of college football, I couldn’t be more excited. Lastly, as a student of the game, I think this Sugar Bowl comes down to Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.

Can he make the offensive play calls that will help along the Alabama offense move the football? For the past few weeks in articles and on the radio, I’ve been pounding the drum that Daboll has got to take pressure off of Jalen Hurts and give star running backs Damien Harris (906 total rushing yards, 8.2 ypc) and Bo Scarbrough (549 total rushing yards, 5.1 ypc) the rock. That’s been Alabama’s formula for success since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, and I don’t think going away from that like the Tide did against Auburn will be successful against Clemson. The Tigers from the ACC are playing their best football of the season right now, and their defense is second to none. The talent of their front four has been well-advertised, and I think that Clemson defense will be stiff against the Alabama running game. Which quarterback do I trust more? I’ll take Alabama’s Jalen Hurts, who has responded well to pressure in his career. If he can keep his eyes downfield when he flees the pocket, he can pick apart Clemson’s secondary. I’m still a little concerned about Kelly Bryant’s ability to throw downfield for Clemson, and I don’t think he’ll have a lot of success on New Year’s Day against a healthy Alabama defense led by all-American Minkah Fitzpatrick. It’ll be a classic, but I expect Jalen Hurts, Damien Harris, and Calvin Ridley to make a few more plays down the stretch, setting up an all-SEC College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Alabama 24, Clemson 21.