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Separating reality from fantasy on UCF

It’s a little weird to attach a label of “sore loser” to the only undefeated team in college football, but that’s where we are at. Central Florida, now claiming themselves to be “national champions” and trolling on Twitter, has become the most obnoxious entity in any competition — the one who sticks their fingers in their ears and ignores the way things are actually done because they didn’t get the result they felt entitled to.

I’ll state a few things up front: I am as big a Group of Five fan/apologist/advocate, as you will find on this site, and I am in favor of expanding the playoff to eight teams to give these schools better representation. But, I understand the system as it currently is and was 100% okay with UCF being left out of the 4-team playoff when it was announced and I am still 100% okay with it now that they’ve beaten Auburn in an exhibition game.

Beyond claiming a faux national title, there are a few points used by UCF apologists that are just non-sensical. First of all, there was no serious and credible pundit, writer or observer who was calling for UCF to be put in the playoff at the time of its selection. Like the system or not, the playoff is comprised of only four teams and is decided after the conference championship games. Any argument relying on a bowl game played after the fact is pure revisionist history.

In fact, the main argument leading up to the CFP selection was between Alabama and Ohio State. The top three teams were all locked in and debate was purely surrounding the fourth spot, and in five days, when the actual national champion is crowned on the field, Alabama will be a favorite to win. There isn’t a single semi-conscious, not-trolling UCF fan on the planet who would argue, with or without the results of their respective bowl games, that their team was better than Alabama.

Then there’s the reality of UCF’s schedule, ranked the 103rd most difficult by Bill Connelly of SB Nation’s Résumé S&P+ metric. People took issue with the fact that, even if they didn’t make the playoff, UCF was still ranked 12th in the final rankings. It’s not as if this actually matters, but believing as I do that 10-12 teams would run the table against UCF’s schedule, I don’t have a problem with it either. I most certainly believe that USC, Ohio State, Washington, Penn State and Wisconsin would run through it without a loss, not to mention the four playoff teams.

People are now throwing up their hands and saying that this means that the G5 teams are hopelessly doomed to always be on the outside of the CFP. In reality, UCF is kind of a bad example. Whether you think it is fair or not, the reality for G5 teams is this: running the table in your conference is the absolute minimum for being considered. Whether you demonstrate your ability to beat good Power 5 teams in non-conference is how you play your way into consideration. Playing Florida International, Austin Peay and Maryland isn’t going to cut it. Ditto for Western Michigan last season (Northwestern, North Carolina Central, Illinois, Georgia Southern).

In 2004, the Utah Utes ran the table in the Mountain West and beat Texas A&M, North Carolina and Arizona all by at least two touchdowns. They had credibility after going 10-2 under Urban Meyer the season before and were fifth in the AP poll the ranking before the bowl season. Had there been a 4-team playoff, there would have been legitimate debate for Utah to get in over a 1-loss California team with a soft schedule. Boise State, also undefeated, played a UCF-esque schedule in the WAC and non-conference (Idaho, Oregon State, BYU), and finished 10th in the second-to-last ranking.

The point of this flashback is to say that hope isn’t lost for G5 teams. These teams have a bigger burden to schedule good teams and a smaller margin of error not to lose. After 2004, Boise State started regularly scheduling quality P5 opponents each year and if UCF and others want their shot, they should do the same. UCF has a better chance next season by playing Pitt, North Carolina and Florida Atlantic. Instead of beating their chests, quietly preparing for those games would be a better use of everyone’s time.

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