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Shea Patterson: Bad?

Michigan got some real big news this past week when it was reported that Shea Patterson would be eligible for Michigan immediately. Good for them! Ever since Wilton Speight got hurt way back in 2016, QB play has been a major issue in Ann Arbor. It’s also important to think about a few things when considering Michigan’s offensive woes. First and foremost, the offensive line desperately needs to perform better, period. Michigan has all the talent in the world at the skill positions. A serviceable QB should be able to distribute the football to these guys, in theory. However, a bad offensive line negates that simple strategy. Michigan has struggled with line play since the Brady Hoke era and that could create problems even with a very talented QB in Shea Patterson presumably assuming QB1 duties for the Wolverines.

Let’s take a look at Shea Patterson at Ole Miss. Obviously, he’s got the talent and a fair amount of athleticism. Those are good things for a QB to have.

Here are his stats from ten games spread over two seasons at Ole Miss as a passer. In 2016 he was thrust into duty as the starter when Chad Kelly went down. For a true freshman, not bad. Y/A looks pretty average and the TD/interception ratio is about what you would expect from a true freshman.

2017 is where my concerns start. The completion percentage is up and looks pretty good. The TD/interception ratio went down by a few decimal points, that’s ok. He threw the ball a lot, good things happen, bad things also happen.

Shea Patterson is athletic for his position, no doubt about that. His trend as a rusher from his freshman season to his second is misleading, yet troubling. Ole Miss did regress in his second season at a number of positions. His passer rating rose but as a rusher, he was ineffective. He saw a lot more dropbacks as he was the focal point of the offense. But then something happened. He was replaced as QB1.

2017 was an interesting year for Ole Miss. Patterson threw nine of his 17 touchdown passes against South Alabama and Tennessee Martin to go along with one interception in those two game. After that he faced California, who did have an improved defense under first-year coach Justin Wilcox. Against SEC competition (as well as Louisiana State) Patterson went 1-4 as the starter. He had a decent game against Auburn but statistically, was barely better than he was againt Cal. The nail in the coffin was the Louisiana State game. 10-23 against a team that should have been a win for Ole Miss. The stats speak for themselves. He was putting up good, not great numbers through the air and having little to no impact as a runner.

Patterson could very well be an impact player at Michigan and great for them. Jim Harbaugh has a good track record with QBs and could turn Patterson into a good, possibly great QB. But as Michigan fans hail Patterson as a savior of sorts at the QB position it is important to look at his performances against good defenses. Furthermore, Shea Patterson will face the Big Ten’s toughest defensive units. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State all come up on Michigan’s schedule this season. Notre Dame is no pushover either. If Michigan can not get better in the trenches, Patterson could very well be running for his life this season.

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