Call me a contrarian, call me an idiot, but at 11:30 pm tomorrow night, you’re going to be calling me a genius.
Washington’s season has been something right out of a storybook. Ron Rivera fighting through cancer, even taking IV fluids at halftime during the season. Many people didn’t expect Alex Smith, to return to football, much less to walk again. Here is, 5-1 as a starter, leading a feisty Washington Football team smack dab into Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It feels like every talking head loves the Bucs to make a run in the NFC. After a 7-9 WFT, they likely play a Packers team without the best LT in the league. After that, it’s a toss-up with a real chance to be the first team to make the Super Bowl the year their team hosts.
For this reason, among others I’ll layout in this article, they seem primed for an upset.
Reason #1 – Tom Brady’s Bedtime
Tom Brady’s lifestyle and diet choices has been a source of jokes for a number of years now. You can’t argue results though, and Tom Brady threw for 40 TDs for the second time in his career with arguably the best weapons in his career. One of the few blemishes in his historic season: Primetime games. I am not saying that Tom has suddenly gotten an extreme case of the yips and suddenly forgot how to perform in the games biggest moment. It’s actually his bedtime.
Part of the TB12 diet was an 8:30 bedtime, as outlined in a 2014 interview Brady did with CBSsports. Although if the routine has changed is unknown, Brady’s nighttime performances pale in comparison to when the sun is out. Tom Brady is 0-6 ATS and 1-5 SU in his last six night games. His lone win coming by just two points over the New York Giants in Week 8. His numbers in those games? Not good either. TB12 is completing 58.5% of his passes with a TD-INT ratio of 8-7.
One would assume that Tom is prepping his sleep schedule for the upcoming Saturday Night game with the Washington Football Team. But according a Warren Sharp, I think it’s business as usual for Tom in Tampa.
And I know I can’t come with an arbitrary bedtime stat and expect you to take my side on the matter. Don’t worry, I’ve got more.
Reason #2 – Tom vs. Effective Pass Rush
One of the reasons Tom has had such an effective season is the Bucs’ ability to keep him upright. The Bucs have allowed 21 sacks this season, tied for the lowest Brady’s ever been taken down in his career. But this Washington team is particularly tricky to defend against.
As a unit, WFT ranks second in Pass Rush Win Rate, a stat that measures a players percentage chance to beat their block in under 2.5 seconds. Specifically, superstar rookie Chase Young ranks top 10 in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate for an edge rusher. He is joined by fellow lineman Jonathan Allen, who ranks 7th in the category reserved for DTs. To top it all off, Daron Payne ranks 9th in run stop win rate. Not to mention Montez Sweat’s 9 sacks and Ryan Kerrigan’s 5.5. Washington as a team sports a 50% pass rush win rate, third best in the league. In short, WFT isn’t a one trick pony on the D Line. Jack Del Rio also isn’t sending constant LB blitzers to create this level of pressure.
How does Tom Brady fare against a strong pass rush attack? Glad you asked. Over his last 10 games when sacked 3+ times, Brady has completed 60.5% of his passes on a 14-9 TD-INT ratio and the team is 4-6 in those games. And even though Brady has been sacked a career low 21 times, the Bucs rank a league average 17th in pass block win rate on the season. (WFT is averaging 2.9 sacks per game).
Reason #3 – It has happened before
Be honest, how many “experts” have explained to you how easy of a path the Bucs have to the Super Bowl? I have a saying that I live by, while either betting or making predictions. If everyone agrees, something will go wrong. It is simply science, I don’t know how to explain it.
For whatever reason, division winners at .500 or under are incredibly effective in the playoffs.
Since 2004, there have been seven teams that find themselves in a similar spot to WFT. All seven have covered and only one team lost outright!
Look, I understand if you are hesitant on betting the WFT ML. But you cannot afford to sit on the sidelines for this one. Here’s every bet I am making in the game in order of importance.
- Second Half Under
- WFT +8 1/2
- WFT vs. TB Under 44 1/2
- WFT ML
Whether you agree with me and are tailing or think I’m an idiot and want to fade, make sure you head over to https://busr.ag/studentunionsports for every one of your betting needs this Super Wild Card Weekend.