As the spring continues, fans will get more insight into each team around baseball. Let’s take a look at each team in the AL East, and how they fare coming into the 2021 season.
#1 New York Yankees
PECOTA Projection: (99-63)
The Yankees made several notable moves in the offseason, following a loss to the Rays in the ALDS. D.J. LeMahieu was re-signed to a 6-year contract, keeping the terrific hitter in the Bronx. Adding Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Darren O’Day, and Justin Wilson will also help bolster the pitching staff.
With a lineup full of high-end talent such as Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit, they will have no issues scoring runs. Hitters like Gio Urshela and Clint Frazier project to slot in the bottom of the order, giving them one of the deepest lineups in baseball.
Catcher Gary Sanchez is the only question mark in the lineup. He went through a horrid slump in 2020, batting just .147 with a 69 OPS+, and was worth -0.3 bWAR. If he can return to his form from years’ past, Sanchez can be one of the most valuable catchers in baseball.
There are also questions to be raised regarding the defense of shortstop Gleyber Torres. He committed 9 errors and had -9 DRS in 40 games at the position last year. With a career 121 wRC+, he will have no issue hitting, but the defense will need to improve sooner rather than later.
The only other question that the Yankees have is their health. Players like Judge and Stanton have struggled to stay on the field in recent years. Two of their top starters, Kluber and Taillon, have combined for only 74 innings since 2019.
With the way injuries have hit this team in the past several seasons, one has to think that luck will be on their side eventually. If the Bronx Bombers can stay relatively healthy, they should have no issue taking the AL East crown.
#2 Tampa Bay Rays
PECOTA Projection: (87-75)
The Rays seemingly always find a way. The AL East champs in 2020 made a run to the World Series, winning their second-ever AL pennant en route. However, they suffered some losses that could set the team back a bit.
Blake Snell was traded to the Padres in the offseason, and Charlie Morton left to sign with the Atlanta Braves. To combat these losses, Tampa brought in veteran arms Rich Hill and Michael Wacha, and also re-acquired Chris Archer.
The original Chris Archer trade brought Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to the team. Glasnow projects as the ace of this staff, while Meadows is one of the team’s best hitters. If Archer can regain his form in Tampa, the already-lopsided trade will go down as an all-time bad trade for the Pirates.
The Rays bullpen, or “stable”, features a ton of weapons. Although they lost Aaron Loup, Tampa still has many options they can depend on. Nick Anderson should remain the main closer, and will be supplemented with arms like Pete Fairbanks, Diego Castillo, John Curtiss, and Chaz Roe. Don’t count out Collin McHugh as a potential factor, either.
As far as the offense goes, the team will likely not have any trouble producing runs. While it would be foolish to expect Randy Arozarena to play at the same level he did during the 2020 postseason, he will undoubtedly be a huge factor for this team going forward.
Brandon Lowe continued to rake in 2020, and will arguably be the team’s most important hitter. And while this Rays team doesn’t exactly feature any true star hitters, they are extremely deep, and very good at mixing up looks for pitchers. The Fangraphs projected roster for Tampa features 6 left-handers, 6 right-handers, and one switch-hitter. All 13 players will likely contribute throughout the season, which will be very important, considering that the jump from 60 games back to 162 will be a significant leap.
#3 Toronto Blue Jays
PECOTA Projection: (85-77)
It looks to be a tight wild-card race this year, as PECOTA has Toronto finishing just two games behind the Rays in 2021. Heading into the year, the Jays are certainly a team with a ton of optimism.
The signing of George Springer brings another great hitter into the fold, as does the addition of Marcus Semien. Teoscar Hernandez had a phenomenal 2020, and should be in the middle of Toronto’s lineup. Young guns such as Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will only continue to improve. One could argue that Toronto’s lineup has the most upside of any in the division.
However, their pitching is a different story. Hyun-Jin Ryu is probably a top-10 pitcher in baseball at the moment (2.30 ERA, 179 ERA+ since 2018), but he provides a stark contrast from the rest of this staff.
The rest of the rotation is comprised of Robbie Ray, Nate Pearson, Steven Matz, and Tanner Roark. Pearson, of course, has incredible stuff and upside, and I would bank on him being Toronto’s bonafide #2 soon enough.
However, the other three don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Robbie Ray has posted a 4.86 ERA, 93 ERA+, and 4.79 FIP since the start of 2019. That includes a 6.62 ERA (69 ERA+) in 2020. Steven Matz allowed 33 earned runs in 30 and 1/3 innings last season. Tanner Roark was dreadful with Toronto in 2020, with a 65 ERA+ and a hard-hit rate of 42.9% (ranking in the bottom 18% of the league). These aren’t exactly the numbers you’re hoping for when trying to compete.
The Blue Jays certainly have the offensive firepower to be a competitor in the AL East. However, they likely don’t have the arms to do so. While their offense will be good enough to keep them in contention all year, this team is still a few good pitchers away from getting over the hump.
#4 Boston Red Sox
PECOTA Projection: (80-82)
For all the bad luck that the Yankees have had with injuries, the Red Sox had a bit of a curse as well during the 2020 season, specifically when it came to their starting rotation.
Chris Sale missed the year after receiving Tommy John surgery. Eduardo Rodriguez missed the year after suffering from myocarditis, which was believed to have been cause by his bout with COVID-19. Nathan Eovaldi missed several weeks after suffering a calf strain in August.
These injuries sucked the life out of a pitching staff that was already on the thin side. To put it in perspective, Zack Godley and his 8.16 ERA started the third-most games for Boston, behind Martin Perez and Eovaldi. In all, Boston had 16 different pitchers start a game during 2020. And the season was only 60 games! The Sox used only 15 different starters during 2019, which featured 102 more games than the 2020 season.
This year, they should be much more consistent in that regard. Eduardo Rodriguez is back, as are Perez and Eovaldi. Chris Sale expects to return at some point this year, as well. In the meantime, the rotation will be rounded out with the newly-signed Garrett Richards, and somebody like Nick Pivetta. While certainly not overwhelming, this is (at the very least) a much better rotation than what we saw in 2020.
On the offensive side, this is still a potent lineup. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are both incredibly talented hitters, and are bolstered by guys such as Alex Verdugo, Christian Vasquez, and a hopefully-reinvigorated J.D. Martinez. They also have several players with major upside, such as Bobby Dalbec, and Franchy Cordero, the main return in the Andrew Benintendi trade.
Super-utility players Marwin Gonzalez and Kiké Hernandez will also become big contributors to this team. The Sox are definitely going to need to score plenty of runs to compete.
The Boston bullpen was dreadful in 2020, but they did make a few notable moves. Adam Ottavino came over in a rare trade with the Yankees, and the team also signed Hirokazu Sawamura from Japan. However, those two by themselves are not going to be enough to hold the ‘pen up. If anything, they will help other late-inning options like Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier by taking some pressure off of them.
So, while this pitching staff should be improving significantly from 2020, it’s still unlikely that they will be good enough to help Boston compete for a playoff spot (especially in the AL East). However, the Red Sox aren’t as far away as many people seem to think.
#5: Baltimore Orioles
PECOTA Projection: (66-96)
Once again, the basement of the AL East belongs to the Orioles. If the projection holds true, it will be the 5th time in the last 6 seasons that Baltimore has finished last in the division (they were 4th in 2020). This shouldn’t exactly be a surprise, as the team has been in full-on rebuild mode for several years now.
Much of their starting lineup consists of very young and inexperienced players. A significant number of their hitters were also drafted by the organization before working their way up to the majors. That could be a good or bad thing, depending on the way you look at it.
Trey Mancini is, by far, the most notable player in their batting order. After beating cancer last year, Mancini appears to be ready to roll in 2021. He has a career OPS+ of 119, with 86 home runs in 462 games. The centerpiece of the lineup, he will be surrounded by guys like Anthony Santander (.890 OPS in 2020) and Ryan Mountcastle (.333/.386/.492 line in 35 games last season).
There’s a lot of raw talent on this team, but unfortunately, raw talent usually doesn’t win games. Losing Renato Nunez and Hanser Alberto will also hurt the short-term prospects for this lineup. Expect to see youngsters like Austin Hays, D.J. Stewart, and Chance Sisco work as everyday players for this Baltimore team.
On the pitching side of things, it’s essentially more of the same. The Orioles feature a ton of young, wide-eyed players looking to establish themselves as major league contributors. John Means will most likely be the ace of this staff (career 3.97 ERA), but the rest of the rotation is pretty much up for grabs.
Jorge Lopez struggled in 2020 (72 ERA+), but should get another chance as a starter this year. Dean Kremer had a few strong outings, and his 2.79 FIP and 95 ERA+ suggest he was better than his 4.82 ERA indicates. Keegan Akin was also solid in 2020, and should slot into the rotation again this season. We could also potentially see former Mariners ace Felix Hernandez in the rotation throughout the year.
The bullpen features several guys looking to build on strong 2020 campaigns. Tanner Scott, Paul Fry, and Travis Lakins combined for a 2.24 ERA in relief last season. However, in a recurring theme for this Orioles team, the bulk of the bullpen will likely be made up of young, unproven arms.
Baltimore will not be expected to compete within the AL East. They wouldn’t be expected to compete in any division, to be fair. This is another rebuilding year, and a chance for fans (and team brass) to get a better look at who may become contributing pieces for the Orioles in years to come.