A new era is set to begin in Lubbock, as former head coach Kliff Kingsbury is now coaching the Arizona Cardinals and the team moves further away from the Patrick Mahomes glory days. Enter new head coach Matt Wells, who takes over after six seasons at Utah State, who is tasked with improving a 5-7 team. Wells, like Kingsbury, is also a former quarterback, and inherits a strong-arm quarterback in Alan Bowman. I guess Texas Tech has a type.

Prestige Rating (If NCAA Football 20 existed): 3 stars

Losing seasons in four of the last five seasons, including three straight, will certainly damage a prestige rating. However, producing an all-everything NFL QB will soften that blow.

2018 Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)

Texas Tech started hot, winning five of their first seven games. Before dropping their final five contests, they achieved a massive 41-17 upset of #15 Oklahoma State.

Projected Returning Starters

Offense: 7

Most importantly, sophomore quarterback Alan Bowman appears to be fully recovered after dealing with a collapsed lung (TWICE!). Bowman, despite missing four games and parts of two others, lead the team with 2,638 passing yards and 17 touchdowns as a true freshman. The team’s top two leading receivers from 2018 have left, leaving junior TJ Vasher as the team’s returning leading receiver with 687 yards in 2018. Texas Tech does not run the ball often, but Jett Duffey (QB) and Da’Leon Ward combined for 12 touchdowns last season. To protect Bowman, four offensive line starters return, and only senior center Bailey Smith is “new” although he has started games in the past and appeared in 11 games last season.

Defense: 6

Simply put, Texas Tech’s defense has struggled recently. In the past seven seasons, the lowest average points per game came in 2013 when the defense surrendered 30.5 points per game. Last season, the unit allowed 31.1 points to opponents on average, while giving up 449 yards per game. On the bright side, leading tackler Jordyn Brooks returns to anchor the linebacker crew, and junior Eli Howard, who lead the team with 3.5 sacks in 2018, is back at defensive end. The defense did not create turnovers last season, ending with a -4 margin. Still, their is reason for optimism as three starters return in the secondary, including playmaking safety Adrian Frye, who netted five interceptions and earned First-Team All-Big 12 as a freshman.

Specialists: 0

The bad news: Texas Tech must overhual their main special teams contributors. The good news: Replacing reliable kicker Clayton Hatfield is two-time All-Conference JUCO transfer Jonathan Garibay. The potentially terrifying news: Texas Tech will be breaking in true freshman punter Austin McNamara. College punters and true freshman do not usually mix well.

Key Losses

McLane Carter has transferred to Rutgers after missing most of the season with an ankle injury, but quarterback is in the capable hands of Alan Bowman. Losing Antoine Wesley and Ja’Deion High (combined 2,014 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns) may sting a little, but there are plenty of weapons returning. Defensively, the Red Raiders lost their emotional leader in former Last Chance U star Dakota Allen, who totaled 73 tackles a year ago. Almost every loss from a year ago is plugged with a capable replacement, which should bode well for Wells.

Key Newcomer (Offense): Armand Shyne, RB

Shyne, a graduate transfer from Utah, enjoyed a successful career for the Utes, rushing for 512 yards and 5 touchdowns as a junior in 2018. However, with Zack Moss returning, Shyne saw the writing on the wall and opted to transfer out of the program. Although Texas Tech does not run the ball as much as the average team, they do use two running backs effectively, as evidenced by the shared carries from a season ago. Shyne instantly becomes the second option in the backfield, and should see significant time and touches.

Key Newcomer (Defense): Evan Rambo, LB

Before I say anything, Evan Rambo has my vote for any All-Name team. Anyway, Rambo is a grad transfer from California, where he saw limited action in three seasons. Rambo is asked to soften the loss of Dakota Allen, and boost the play, along with Jordyn Brooks, of an otherwise inexperienced group. In his limited action, Rambo tallied 34 tackles and 4 TFL.

Breakout Player Candidate: KeSean Carter, WR

The third or fourth utilized wide out on this roster, Carter’s talent props him up to the #1 spot on any other roster. Tech loves to throw the ball and to plenty of receivers. Carter hauled in 26 passes for 238 yards last season, but was not even a top four option in the offense. Look for Carter to build off a relatively successful freshman campaign and grab a boatload of catches from Bowman.

Wins the Conference If: Alan Bowman is Patrick Mahomes 2.0

From the small sample size of last season, it is clear that Alan Bowman is the unquestioned starter at quarterback. With the shaky defensive track record, it will take a Herculean effort from Bowman to bring the Red Raiders to the top of the Big 12.

2019 Outlook: 7-5

Texas Tech will benefit from two cupcake games to open the season in Montana State and UTEP. Ultimately, the grind of a competitive Big 12 will be too much for Texas Tech, but a seven-win season is a good building block for the Matt Wells era, and things will only go up from there with Bowman in Lubbock.