Year two was a bit of a shock for Bronco Mendenhall and the Cavaliers. Year three might bring them back down to earth.
When Bronco Mendenhall took over the Virginia program following the 2015 season, everyone knew they were in for a rebuild. This showed in his first season, as the team limped to a 2-10 season. Last season though, the team exploded out of the gate to a 5-1 start, including a 42-23 thrashing of Boise State, before slogging to a 1-6 finish and being demolished by Navy in the Military Bowl. The Cavs lose experience on both sides of the ball, which is concerning. A Bronco defense is always going to be a at least decent, but a new QB with an inexperienced O-line generally has disastrous consequences.
Prestige Ranking: 2 stars
UVA finally got to a bowl game last year, but even that isn’t going to rid them of the stench of the Mike London years, in addition to the program’s lack of historic success. However, the longer Bronco stays, (and he seems to have a long leash) the more likely an opportunity the Cavs could move up.
Projected Returning Starters: 12
Offense: 6
WR Joe Reed, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, C Dillion Reinkensmeyer, RG Jake Fieler, RB Jordan Ellis, TE Evan Butts
The offense was not very good this year, and there are concerns that it could get worse with last year’s QB Kurt Benkert’s graduation. On the bright side, new QB Bryce Perkins is a dual-threat, allowing Mendenhall to run an offense similar to what he did at BYU. Perkins is likely going to need to run too, because what was a patchwork line last year might be even worse this season with only two returning starters. Luckily, Perkins will be helped out by RB Jordan Ellis, who was the team’s leading rusher last year. Reed and Zaccheaus will give Perkins the ability to get rid of the ball, with TE Evan Butts being a safety valve in the new offense.
Defense: 6
NT Eli Hanback, ILB Jordan Mack, OLB Chris Peace, CB Bryce Hall, SS Brenton Nelson, FS Juan Thornhill
Going into last season, the defense had an impact player at each level: Andrew Brown on the D-line, Micah Kiser with the linebackers, and Quin Blanding in the secondary. Unfortunately, they are all in the NFL now. It’s not all bad though, as the linebackers and secondary remain in good position, but like the offensive side, it’s the line that raises the most questions. The D-line, with one returning starter, will be forced to rely primarily on transfers, highlighted by former Ohio State end Dylan Thompson. Richard Burney, a converted TE, looks to figure prominently on the line as well.
Last year’s leading returning tackler, Jordan Mack, comes back to man the inside linebacker spot and should be a force to be reckoned with over the middle. OLB Chris Peace emerged as a pass-rusher last season totaling 7.5 sacks, leading the team. His ability to get to the Quarterback should take some pressure off of the inexperienced line.
The secondary features a wealth of veteran experience, headlined by safeties Brenton Nelson and Juan Thornhill, both of whom tied for the team lead in interceptions last season. Thornhill, who was a 3rd-team All ACC selection last year, is moving from corner due to the depth at the position, and should be the senior leader on a strong back end.
Special Teams: 2
K A.J. Meija, P Lester Coleman
Meija broke the freshman scoring record for a kicker, and connected on 8 of 12 attempts… his long of 38 yards is a bit concerning though. Coleman averaged 43.7 yards per punt last year, which should help what may be a shaky defense at first.
Tyroil Smoochie-Wallace All Name Team Member: Evan BUTTS
Key Losses: Kurt Benkert, Andrew Brown
QB Benkert broke multiple UVA records while at the school, and his leadership was a big reason for the push towards a bowl game last season. Brown, a defensive lineman, will be sorely missed for both his ability on the line and his leadership.
Five Year Recruiting Ranking (Bill Connelly): 54
As shown by their ranking, Virginia is a very lower-middle tier recruiting school. As with anything, the more you win, the easier it will be to recruit, and Mendenhall has stocked up young talent, but they are just that: young. Once the recruits mature and develop, Virginia should be contending for bowl bids for the foreseeable future.
Alcohol Prediction for Fans by Season’s End: Ragged Branch-Virginia Straight Bourbon Whiskey
Distilled right in Charlottesville, a night-drinking bourbon will likely be a microcosm of Virginia’s season. You either have a fantastic time with it, and can’t wait for the next time you drink it, or you have a very, very bad time and you end wondering why you decided to drink (or watch) at all.
Outlook
The defense *should* be fine by season’s end, but the offense could go multiple ways. On one hand, Perkins could struggle at the FBS level and the offensive line falters, keeping the offense much of the same as it was last year, if not worse… and it actually can’t get much worse. However, it is entirely possible that Perkins shines and becomes a two-way threat for teams to account for. The OOC schedule is pretty manageable, with only Indiana posing a real threat, but a September 22nd showdown vs Louisville will be key in determining where UVA falls in the ACC.