Hello and welcome to the first QB breakdown for the preseason of the 2018-2019 football season. In these articles, Cody Goggin and myself, Andy Jones, will be taking our top 3 QB’s from each Power 5 Conference (and possibly a Group of 5 article) and be breaking down some film, mechanics, and stats on each one. Andy will be the film breakdown and more of an inside thinking of a QB due to the years of experience at the position and his knowledge of college QB’s. Cody will breakdown more of the statistical side of the QB’s and use stats to show how they will perform this season, how certain defenses are tougher, etc. Before we start, these are our own opinions and we may both agree or disagree on them, but it wouldn’t be college football without some disagreements. So, without further ado, we present out ACC QB Breakdown.
Boy, oh boy, the ACC… not the greatest QB conference out there, but also not the worst. While passing may not be a key for any teams within this conference, we have had a number of big name gunslinger come out of the East Coast, and this year is no different with three big names to help prove that the ACC is a top conference. The 3 QB’s we will be looking at are Ryan Finley from NC State, Daniel Jones from Duke (All great QB’s have the last name Jones *wink*), and Deondre Francois from Florida State. Our rankings for them is:
3. Daniel Jones
2. Deondre Francois
1. Ryan Finley
So, with all of your angry comments typed and prepared to be sent, we give you our QB Breakdown’s for the ACC:
Daniel Jones (Duke)
Andy’s Take:
Film Watched: at Army, vs Miami
Daniel Jones is not the biggest arm or most flashy QB in college, but for me personally, he is in the top 15 as of right now. Listed at 6’5, 220, he is a big body at the position and has more than enough strength to throw the ball. He likes to use his legs, which fits Duke’s system, and doesn’t try to force throws, but he can over think at times, which is why he’s had 20 Int’s to his 30 TD’s in his career.
At Army:
Now, this game is against a not so great Army defense, however Jones does get shut down with 0 TD’s and 1 INT. But I love this film for one reason only: It shows how he can keep calm and composed, even when shit goes south. Multiple times within the game, Jones is swamped by a pass rush, but he uses his legs to escape outside of the pocket and attempt to make a play or connect on one. The one problem that does show up in this film that he tends to think quicker than his body can move and he can drop a snap, mess up a hand off, or fumble.
vs Miami
The only reason why I love this game is the toughness and ability that Jones has to escape and make plays. This was not his greatest game and was a bit of a blow-out, 24-6, but he played against a killer Miami defense and had zero playmakers on his offense. Most of his turnovers/missed plays aren’t all his fault (tipped passes, WR running the wrong routes, etc.), but he has a short-term memory and comes back out like it is his first drive of Week 1.
Jones is not and will not be a stout NFL prospect or a Heisman hopeful. His mechanics are sometimes awful, his accuracy can be on and off, and he has average arm strength. What he does have going for him however is his play making ability, ball placement (when the ball is thrown correctly), and athleticism. He can change and adapt new mechanics, such as footwork, release point, and follow through, but his grit and competitiveness is what has helped excel him onto this list and makes him an above average QB in the ACC.
Cody’s Take:
Do I think super highly of Daniel Jones? Not exactly, no. He’s a fine QB who can win you a game or two with his arm in the ACC. He’s mainly on this list because only about half of the ACC returns their QBs and most of those did not play well. I was very close to having Joshua Jackson of Virginia Tech on this list, but I believe he needs another year. So without further ado, let’s get to Mr. Jones.
Last year I developed a mechanism to evaluate QBs based on their performance using rate statistics and adjusted for opponent strength, making it a better metric than the standard counting stats for the purpose of comparing QBs in different offenses and running different tempos against a different schedule. In 2017, I had Daniel Jones ranked 89th out of 125 eligible FBS quarterbacks. Based on historical performances, Jones was worth -0.07 WAR to Duke last year. This makes sense as Duke finished 6-6 in the regular season, meaning that Jones was basically replacement level and the team was neither better or worse without him. Let’s break down some of Daniel’s game by game numbers to see what really happened.
By my metric, Jones’ three best games last year were against Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Northwestern, respectively. In week one against Northwestern, Jones went 29 for 45 with 305 yards, two scores, and one pick. The 305 yards were his second highest of the season, but it took him a whole 45 passes to get there.
Florida State and Georgia Tech are both games that do not necessarily stick out on paper, but despite the low numbers, Jones was efficient in both of these games. Despite Florida State’s struggles on defense last year, they were still the toughest pass defense that Duke faced all season based on opponent yards per game allowed, passer rating allowed, and second in points per pass. So while Jones only threw for 204 yards and no touchdowns on 22 of 35 passing, this was better than most QBs did against FSU last season. Lastly, the Georgia Tech game could be considered similarly unspectacular. In this one, Jones went 18-26 for 177 yards and two touchdowns. You’ll find as we continue throughout this series that this model really rewards not turning the ball over. (Andy Note: Can confirm, turnovers are bad)
Going forward for 2018, I think Jones takes another step forward in his junior year. My expectation is that he is a solid QB for Duke this year and worth about 0-1 WAR. Nothing spectacular, but he isn’t going to hurt the team too much.
Deondre Francois (Florida State)
Film watched: vs Miami, Combined Highlights
Andy’s Take:
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Deondre was being hyped up as one of the best QB’s after his 2016 season, but we never saw him take more than 20 snaps in 2017. It makes it more difficult to rank him, but based on his 2016 season (and a piss poor ACC QB pool), he is slapped with the number 2 ranking.
Here comes the hot takes part: I don’t love him as much as the media or everyone else does. Now,it’s not because he is a Seminole but rather it is because he has a mix of god awful mechanics, forces throws way too often, triesg too much in just one snap, and the defense can read his eyes like The Fault In Our Stars.
“But mechanics don’t matter if the ball still gets there.” Well actually yes they do. Francois has a helluva arm and can make the throws, but he is terribly inaccurate. This is due to two main things:
He doesn’t utilize his hips (which is where 50-60% of throwing power comes from) and his follow through (specifically his left arm). While the hips may not be a big issue for short throws, on his long bombs (30+ yards) he won’t transfer the weight from his hips forward and it causes under thrown balls or ducks (wobbly spirals), which can result in interceptions.
And now his follow through. He does great at not having his lead arm (in his case his left arm) too high or low. However, he can sometimes jerk the arm back too quickly and it leads to his right shoulder being tugged and an inaccurate.
Francois is going to be a big name this season in the ACC and it will be interesting to see how he bounces back from his ACL injury.
Cody’s Take:
Francois is super hard to evaluate as he missed almost all of last season after tearing his ACL against Alabama in the opening game. Based on pure talent alone, he is definitely among the top QBs in the conference. It will be interesting to see if Francois is 100% and whether or not he takes another step from 2016. Of course, this also depends on him beating out James Blackman for the starting job.
Francois was the #9 QB in the country coming out of high school before getting thrown straight into the fire as the Seminole starter. He performed right away by throwing for 419 yards and two touchdowns in his very first college game. There were some growing pains the rest of the year as well, namely the routing against Louisville where he was held to 7-18 for 101 yards.
The good news for Noles fans is that during the regular season Francois threw for 300 yards five different times and did not throw for more than one interception in any games in 2016. I truly believe that if Francois is back on the same level as he was in 2016 that Florida State could win 9-10 games in a bounce back year under new head coach Willie Taggart.
Ryan Finley (North Carolina State)
Film watched: vs Clemson, Highlights
Andy’s Take:
Ryan Finley went from being an under-the-radar QB for the Wolfpack at the start of last season to one of the top QBs of the season and seen as one of the top NFL prospects. Now, I am all in on Finley as one of, if not the best all-around QB this season as he is going to show out (No, I do not mean stats wise). He’s not going to be having Heisman numbers or be shown off every five minutes on SportsCenter like our good ole’ guy Baker Magic. However, to the more detailed QB guru eye, he is a masterpiece.
Before I get a little more in-depth, I got a few things to say about his game against Clemson this last season. At home against a scary Clemson defense, Finley was composed and didn’t have too many mistakes. But the thing that jumped out to me is that he was not scared at all to challenge the defense and was throwing into double coverage, standing in the pocket even with the pass rush coming unblocked, and would even drop his shoulder and fight for some yards. But, this game points out one of his worse flaws. His release point on throws that should be up high or leading the receiver. When he is forced to attempt to make these throws, he can sometimes let it rip too high and stretches his arm too far, which results with a overthrown ball or a wild throw. Now, let’s get a little more deep in why I love Finley.
Finley is the average size for a QB, standing at around 6’3 and 185, and has about average speed and strength. But, his mechanics is where the fun part comes in…
What Finley lacks in strength and pizzaz, he makes up with in his accuracy, placement, and decision-making. The majority of his deep throws are Hail Mary bombs or lucky bounces off of the CB’s head, but he puts the just right amount of English on the ball to help make his below average WR core look like an All-American team. Finley’s footwork almost matches how good Aaron Rodgers’ is, where he will keep hot feet (aka keeping the feet moving to always be able to move around and take a plant step forward) and keeps his head on a swivel, never staring down one receiver to allow the defense to jump on the pass.
The last thing I have before I become the Ryan Finley Fan Club President, the guy can straight up run the Pro-Offense like a starting NFL QB. Spread is by far my favorite offense schemes (with some other mixed schemes thrown in), and with the style that NC State runs, they create a balance of screens, options, and deep shots. Finley couldn’t be any better of a guy to drop into this system and watch the magic happen.
Cody’s Take:
While I’m not quite as high on Finley as Andy is, I do think he is a really solid and efficient QB. Finley isn’t the flashiest QB in the world, but he isn’t going to hurt the team and he will have occasional moments of brilliance. Finley graded out well in my QB WAR system in 2017, ranking 12th in the country and 2nd in the ACC (behind Kelly Bryant, who was left off this list as he may not be the starter), with 1.98 WAR. While they were an 8-4 team last year, they may have been an average 6-6 had it not been for Finley.
The former Boise State product started off the season strong, having all of his top three games of the season within the first five weeks. Even though they are not a power five opponent, Finley’s 29-36, 341 yard, 3 TD performance against Marshall in week two was his most impressive statistical performance of the season. Finishing second on that list was his 415 yard game in a losing effort to South Carolina week one, after throwing an insane 64 times. Lastly, Finley’s 367 yards on 20 for 31 passing against Louisville was another one of his best games in 2017.
The only team that picked Finley off multiple times last season was the Clemson Tigers, which seems more than excusable. Notre Dame was the other team to stymie Finley as he could manage just 213 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on a paltry 17 for 37 passing.
Finley threw for 3,514 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions in his second season at NC State. In 2018, he will look to take one last jump, like he did last year. Finley improved his completion percentage by 4.7% and threw for two less interceptions despite throwing 76 more times. I expect Finley to eclipse 20 touchdowns and 500 attempts this year after the departure of RB Nyheim Hines.
Final Words
Andy:
The ACC isn’t looking like the greatest conference for some gunslingers, but this doesn’t mean that it all bad. FSU, NC State, and Clemson all have locks at QB (Clemson has a big boy decision with Bryant or Lawrence) and the rest is not that great of looks. But hey, its college football, a 3rd string Clip Board guy could become the next big name player, or the next big prospect can become a bust.
Cody:
While I do think that Finley is the most talented returning starter in the league, I do think that both Francois and whoever the starter at Clemson is have the chance to be better. I have heard nothing but great things regarding Trevor Lawrence and there is a nonzero chance that he has a fantastic year.
