On Sunday, the tournament selection committee released their early top 16 tournament seeds. A lot of it is fairly perplexing. A Michigan State team that beat Purdue on Saturday and is three in the most recent AP Poll found itself on the three line. Oklahoma, which has been basically in free fall the last few weeks, nestled in nicely as the 16th overall seed. Kansas, who the Big 12 schedule has been similarly unyielding to, sat comfortably on the two line.
The committee showed a borderline sexual attraction to the Big 12 and hinted at the fact that the seeds were done Friday and they just really didn’t feel like fixing it after seeing the results on Saturday. Still, they were completely correct with the Big East, which made out with two one seeds and no one else in the top 16.
Although valuing the SEC and Big 12 too highly, they are right where they need to be with the Big East. Villanova is still one of the three elite teams in the nation (along with Virginia and Michigan State) despite their hiccup at home against St. John’s (who is suddenly the best team in the history of college basketball). Xavier navigated through the toughest week of any ranked team (@Butler and @Creighton) with two victories and cemented themselves as a worthy candidate for the program’s first ever number one seed.
I am willing to bet my next three paychecks that the selection committee didn’t even watch the games on Saturday before releasing their top 16 seeds on Sunday.
The rest of the conference is where things get extremely hairy. Joe Lunardi currently has four other Big East teams in the tournament field. All four are in limbo (or in Providence’s case the bubble) between being a threat to highly-ranked teams and being probable early exits.
Teams that matter
Butler: currently on Joe Lunardi’s 8 line
Butler is exactly where I expected and wanted them to be. With my personal biases aside, the Bulldogs are probably the most likely Big East team to upset a high seed en route to a bid in the Sweet 16. Let’s not forget they were Villanova’s first loss on the season. Sure, they can’t bring Hinkle Fieldhouse with them, which is possibly the most deadly home court advantage in the nation, but this team can beat anybody. Kelan Martin and Kamar Baldwin are both guys that can light up the scoresheet on any given night, and their team defense was a big reason they were able to defeat Villanova earlier in the season. Coming in at 20th overall in the kenpom.com rankings, this is a team one seeds should fear in the round of 32.
Creighton: currently on Joe Lunardi’s 7 line
Creighton is a squad that can score at will. They are 11th in the nation with 85.1 points per game. This is created by great facilitating (7th in the nation with 17.9 assists per game) and Marcus Foster’s innate ability to score at will. He is currently riding a streak of seven straight games of 20+ points and back to back games of 29. Much like Butler, the elite individual scoring and team play makes them a threat for many high seeds in the tournament. With only two games of their last six against teams currently in the projected field, don’t be surprised if they play their way to the six line.
Seton Hall: Currently on Joe Lunardi’s 9 line
“Yo, what the literal fuck is wrong with you, Will?” – Desi Rodriguez, probably
For better or for worse, I have been driving the Seton Hall bandwagon for this entire season. If you think their underwhelming play in conference has led me to bail, you’re wrong. A captain always goes down with his ship. Additionally, the only March checkbox I don’t think they still mark off is coaching, since Kevin Willard should be doing far more with this extremely talented group. The four headed monster of seniors Desi Rodriguez, Khadeen Carrington and Angel Delgado, combined with sophomore Myles Powell, this is a team that without a doubt can find itself playing during the second weekend. I don’t expect anyone to believe me, especially following three straight losses and three remaining games against tournament teams, but their talented core is too good to discredit. I think they will ultimately end up on the ten line, and honestly, that’s the best place for them to be.
Teams that don’t
Providence: currently in Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four Byes”
One of the best and most underrated guards in the nation is Kyron Cartwright, who is following in the footsteps of Bryce Cotton and Kris Dunn to continue Providence’s rich recent point guard history. Despite this, the pieces just haven’t filled in around him. Freshman Alpha Diallo has lived up to the hype, but senior Rodney Bullock has been a bit of a disappointment due to his offensive inconsistencies. Despite a win against Xavier a couple weeks ago, the Friars have struggled with inconsistency, and their four remaining games against teams currently in the projected field makes their tournament outlook bleak to even make it into the field. I predict they are one of the last four teams in, but are not a threat to make it to the second weekend or win any game as a heavy underdog.
Marquette: not currently in field
Marquette is one of the most intriguing teams from the group of teams on the outside looking in. Even with a 14-11 record, they are still 50th in the kenpom.com rankings, largely in part to their 15th ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency. Their electric backcourt of Markus Howard and Andrew Rousey ranks first and sixth in the Big East in scoring in a Big East season that has been highlighted by many elite individual scorers. Additionally, the only bad losses on their schedule are Georgia and surging St. John’s last week.
Still, they find themselves on the outside looking in and with two games remaining against Creighton, their tournament hopes are also looking extremely bleak. If they can rip off 4 of 5 to finish the year and maybe win a couple games in the Big East tournament, they could find themselves playing for an eleven seed, but the chances of having the joy of watching Howard and Rousey in March Madness may be a dream that will die for college hoops fans.
A final note
“Hello, I’m Shamorie Ponds and I’m here to drop 40 on your top-5 ranked ass and then fuck your wife”
St. John’s, led by the best young guard in the nation Shamorie Ponds (who’s Trae Young?), decided about ten days ago that they wanted to be the best team in the nation. They beat Duke at home and then followed that up with wins against Villanova and Marquette. If you are keeping track at home, that is two wins against top five teams in back to back games.
Following the Nova victory, one of my roommates turned to me and posed a question: “With this win, should St. John’s be considered for a tournament berth?” My initial response was a scoff. The win against Nova was their first in conference and got them to 13-13 on the year overall. They lost to DePaul and Georgetown, the other members of the Big East basement. Instead of laughter, I decided to just write off the question rationally because two good wins can only get you so far when you have sucked for a majority of the year. I assumed that this was a question that was just to embrace debate and wrote it off.
Today, Bleacher Report, which is a real life, “reputable” and respected sports media source, put St. John’s in their group of teams “On the Horizon” in their most recent bracket. I bring this up for a few reasons. 1. please don’t ever use Bleacher Report as a way to backup your arguments. 2. I was wrong to think anything is so rationally stupid that someone in the sports world will make a real take and actually publicize it. 3. Student Union has it’s hot takes and is not necessarily filled with “professionals,” but it is a far better sports outlet than Bleacher Report.
