Sugar Bowl Preview:
7:45 p.m. Central Time, Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
Records: Baylor: 11-2; Ole Miss: 10-2.
Ranking: Baylor: No. 7 (CFP): Ole Miss: No. 8 (CFP).
We have a fantastic matchup on New Year’s Day on Bourbon Street. It is a great matchup to recap the final New Year’s Six Bowl of the bowl season. We get a matchup between one of the premier defensive coaches in the sport against one of the best offensive coaches in the sport. Aranda vs Kiffin on New Year’s day must-watch television. Baylor is coming off their third Big 12 Championship, and they signed their head coach Dave Aranda to an extension. On the other side, the Kiffin train has Ole Miss rolling. The Rebels are 10-2 and are in a New Years Six Bowl for the first time since 2016.
Controlling the Clock and Winning on first down.
The Bears play an old school brand of football under coach Dave Aranda. The Bears rank 22nd nationally in time of possession, and they do it by forcing three and outs on defense and running the football. Baylor has the Number 17 rushing offense (214.9 rushing yards per game) led by Abram Smith. The senior tailback will now face a Mississippi defense that has struggled to stop the run, ranking 102nd in the nation. This will be Baylor’s point of attack. Starting quarterback Gerry Bohannon returns after missing the Big 12 title game, and his legs add an element to the running game. Ole Miss defense has improved greatly since last season. But that’s mostly due to their success of getting to the quarterback on passing downs. The Rebels rank in the top 20 in pressure rate and get to the Quarterback at the 6th highest rate on passing downs (13%), while the Bears have an 8% adjusted sack rate on passing downs (72nd). But the challenge for Baylor is not letting it get to that point. Ole Miss is allowing a 56% success rate on first down runs. So Baylor’s plan will be to chew the clock and make the chains short.
Baylor has had a great defense all year. But they will go against an Ole Miss offense that ranks in the top 20 in yards per play and yards per drive. On defense, Baylor excels in limiting runs to fewer than four yards 42% of the time (15th) but struggles on third/fourth and short allowing a power success rate of 70%. But, again, this may come into play against Ole Miss, who refuses to punt or kick field goals in 4th and short situations.
Matt Corral’s Final Game Against a solid Baylor defense.
The Rebels star quarterback didn’t really have to play in this game. He has solidified himself as one of the top Quarterbacks in this class. But he is playing anyway. He is a true football guy. This is the same guy who got famous in high school for giving Wayne Gretzky’s kid a black eye- then called out to the school for being filled with spoiled rich kids. Really, Corral has had a stellar college career since Lane Kiffin’s arrival. The kid that was kicked out of the rich school in So-Cal was the perfect fit for Lane Kiffin’s offense in Mississippi. Corral has thrown for over 6,600 passing yards and 49 touchdowns the past two seasons while completing nearly 70% of his passing attempts. In addition to his arm, Corral ran for over 600 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. The Ole Miss offense runs through him. Now Corral gets one of his toughest tests of the year. Baylor ranks in the top 13 in scoring defense and the top 40 in total defense. They do a great job of pressuring the Quarterback and stopping the run. They have a unique TITE front alignment that is unique to Aranda’s defense. Defenses have focused on limiting the big play with Ole Miss and trying to force Corral to make mistakes. The Ole Miss signal caller only has 4 interceptions on the year. Lane Kiffin has total trust in signal caller to make plays, to the point where he won’t hesitate to go for on on 4th down on his own side of the field.
The Verdict:
The matchup will be how Ole Miss can move the ball on Baylor’s defense. I think Corral will use this game to solidify himself as the top QB in the draft. His presence playing in the game should motivate this Ole Miss squad. Baylor has had an amazing season where they over exceeded expectations. They will play against an Ole Miss offense that is hard to prepare for. They played against high tempo offenses, but they haven’t seen a dual-threat QB like Corral. Ole Miss defense has improved, and they should do enough to slow Baylor down. The game will come down to 1st down success and 4th down decision making on both sides. I think Ole Miss comfortably comes away with the win here. Joey Freshwater is going to have himself a time on Bourbon Street.