We have a fantastic college basketball game in the Big 12 taking place tonight. The TCU Horned Frogs are going up against the Baylor Bears. TCU is one point away from being undefeated. However, they have won ten straight games. Baylor is coming off a Big 12 road loss against Iowa State from New Year’s Eve. The Baylor Bears are a 6 point favorite to go along with the over/under set at 144.5. With that being said here is my prediction for this Big 12 showdown for Wednesday 1/4/2023.
TCU Horned Frogs
The TCU Horned Frogs are rattling off a great start to the 2022/2023 campaign. TCU has wins over Iowa, Providence and Texas Tech so far this season. This is the Horned Frogs first road game in conference and they are going up against a very good Baylor team. TCU is led by preseason All-American guard Mike Miles. Miles averages 18.6 points per game to go along with a 52.1% field goal percentage. The Horned Frogs also have two other plays who average double digits in their starting five.
Senior forward Emanuel Miller who averaged 14.2 points per game and 6.2 rebounds per game as well on a 56.6% shooting percentage from the field and 47.4% from beyond the arc. The other one is senior guard Damion Baugh who averages 11.7 points per game, 4.4 rebounds per game and 4.7 assists per game. Those two are big, but an underrated part of this TCU team is a guy like Chuck O’Bannon. O’Bannon is a red shirt senior who fights hard every night and can be a double double guy for them. If the Horned Frogs want to top the Baylor Bears they need to shoot a lot better than their three point percentage (29.2%) which is t-338th in the country. Look for TCU to try and improve their shooting in order to get the big road win.
Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears have wins over UCLA and Gonzaga to start off the season. Baylor is at home looking to start 2023 off on the right foot. They ended 2022 with a Big 12 road loss to Iowa State and they will look to get their first Big 12 win tonight. Baylor is led by their three guard lineup of Adam Flagler, Keyonte George and L.J. Cryer. Flagler missed two games in the middle of December, but since he returned he has put up 20 points in both games. Keyonte George has been the big name for the Bears because he hasn’t missed any time. George is averaging 15.6 points per game to go along with 4.3 rebounds per game and 3.7 assists per game.
The Bears will likely be without LJ Cryer who is working his way back from a concussion. Baylor will also be without Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua who has been out with a knee injury since last February. The Bears need their offense to step up in a big way. They are going up against a TCU team that ranks 10th in defensive rating in the country. Baylor have won three straight against TCU and will look to make it four in a row tonight at home.
Betting Trends
-Horned Frogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.
-Under is 3-1-1 in TCU’s last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
-Under is 5-0 in Baylor’s last 5 home games.
-Baylor are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
The Don’s Prediction
I think this has the potential to be a very very good game between these two teams. If LJ Cryer plays the distinct advantage goes in Baylor’s favor. However, I think this line has been mistaken. I would have had Baylor as a 3.5 point favorite at home. TCU is due for a loss and I can see it happening tonight. However, I truly see the Horned Frogs covering this six point spread. Give me TCU +6 on the road at Baylor tonight.
