As the second part of my AGI series, I will unveil teams that AGI, my new projection system, is much higher on than the preseason polls and general sentiment among fans. In case you missed it yesterday, you can check out my top 25 here. Some I may agree with, some not necessarily, but either way numbers never lie.
Missouri Tigers
This team was definitely the biggest surprise from the model, but not without reason. The Tigers return Drew Lock at quarterback for his junior season, who is looking to take that next big leap. Last season, Lock found himself among the top passers in the SEC by throwing for 3,399 yards and 23 TDs. At the skill positions, Mizzou returns top rusher Damarea Crockett and top receiver J’Mon Moore, who is definitely a guy to watch out for. Missouri also returns a solid defense and every starter on the offensive line. With the way the schedule lines up, I see Missouri finishing with eight wins at the worst, while the model predicts they will go 10-2 and win the SEC East with their only losses at home against Auburn and on the road versus Georgia. If they can get past Florida and Tennessee and live up to my model, then the Tigers definitely have a chance to return to national prominence.
TCU Horned Frogs
Many national pundits seem to be down on the Horned Frogs after finishing 6-6 in the regular season last year and being pretty mediocre. AGI does not necessarily agree with this sentiment. AGI thinks that Kenny Hill (no longer Trill) and TCU will take the jump to the Big 12 Championship game, finishing 11-1 with their only loss against Oklahoma. TCU returns a strong offensive line and should have one of the best offenses in the Midwest. The 4-2-5 defense should be solid enough by Big 12 standards to get by. The only concerns may be their games at Oklahoma State, home against Texas and home against Baylor at the end of the season.
Louisville Cardinals
Do I think Louisville wins the national championship? No. But I do know for a fact they have the returning Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson and a manageable schedule. The X-Factor here for me is that they are getting the defending champion Clemson Tigers at home early in the season, when Kelly Bryant (or whomever is under center for Clemson) will still be green and learning the position. None of the other games on the schedule should really worry Louisville, aside from a trip to Tallahassee. I have Louisville finishing as a top ten team in the country, with an 11-1 record, and another outstanding season from Action Jackson.
Texas A&M Aggies
Now, we go back to the SEC for the Kevin Sumlin hype train and a big surprise for everyone. The quarterback position is a major question, but even with just an average first year starter in there, this team could develop into something dangerous. A&M returns electric, All-American receiver Christian Kirk, along with a strong offensive line and a defense that should be much improved. The schedule lines up well enough that there is a strong possibility that the Aggies start 5-0 before falling to Alabama and picking up a late November loss against the LSU Tigers. This will be the kind of jump it will take for Kevin Sumlin to get off the hot seat, but there is also a strong possibility that it all just falls apart like it has in recent seasons.
Washington State Cougars
I think that Washington State has the best chance of any team on this list of living up to the hype of my model. Even though AGI has them at 10-2 and finishing second in the Pac 12 North, I think there is a real possibility that Mike Leach and Luke Falk can take the division and shock the world. This fits the typical mold of what a Wazzu team has been over the past few seasons, but they return a lot of pieces and the defense just keeps improving. If they are scoring 40+ points a game and the defense is at least average, this team will be a challenger at the top of the division.
Colorado State Rams
I just had to get a Group of 5 team on this list. While I do love Quinton Flowers and South Florida, that just isn’t out of the ordinary for anyone in the country to think. Another mid major to watch is the Rams of Colorado State. Nick Stevens was probably the best QB in the Mountain West last season and there is a lot returning around him to like. There is definitely a possibility that this pick blows up in my face due to the brutal schedule and playing in what I think is the best Group of 5 division in the country. They have very important meetings against Oregon State, Colorado, and Alabama in the non-con, and while I don’t think that they will beat Alabama and most likely not the Buffs, they can hang with any team in their own conference. The most important match-ups for the Rams will be at Wyoming and a home battle against Boise State.
