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The 240 Minutes Series: Predicting the Milwaukee Bucks Rotation

The 240 Minutes Series Explained:

In the NBA there are 450 players under full contracts to start every season. These players consist of superstars, all-stars, average players, guys dealing with injuries, benchwarmers, rookies, ring-chasers, and whatever Hassan Whiteside is. Despite the contracts, draft capital, coaching, potential, friendships, and experience that all play a role in rotation minutes, there are only 240 minutes every game to go around and split amongst the players. 

In this series, we cut through all of that. Join the fun as we dig into the rosters of every NBA team and project how many rotation minutes will be played by each player to begin the season. This takes into account all active injuries and thinks about the rosters in terms of which 9-12 players on each team will actually be playing for their respective team for the first few weeks of the regular season. In addition to this, we will discuss the positions that they will be playing, why their minutes per game total is calculated where it is, and showcase the quality of the player that is allotted those minutes. The “quality of player” tiers will look as such:

MVP Candidate – Top 10 player and potential to win MVP this season

All-NBA Candidate – Top 30 player and potential to be on an All-NBA Team this season

High-End Starter – Quality starter with potential to make the All-star game this season

Starter – Quality starter and is (roughly) a top 120 player this season

Low-End Starter – Starts but is not (roughly) a top 120 player this season

Elite 6th Man – Does not start but is a top (roughly) 120 player and could win 6MOTY this season

High-End Backup – Does not start but could if needed and perform well

Backup – Does not start but is a quality role player

Low-End Backup – Could see minutes during regular season but might not make playoff rotation

Without further ado:

Where Will the 240 Minutes on the Milwaukee Bucks Go?

Giannis Antetokounmpo PF/C – MVP Candidate (33 minutes per game)

After winning the MVP Award in both 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, Giannis was finally dethroned by Nikola Jokic, but Antetokounmpo took home arguably the more prestigious award in NBA Finals MVP. The Greek Freak had an all-time finals performance averaging 35.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game against the Suns. On top of this, he scored 50 points in the close out game and defied all logic, shooting 17/19 from the free-throw line. A truly clutch performance. Giannis played 38.1 minutes per game in the playoffs, but a much more repeatable 33.0 minutes per game in the regular season. With all of the Bucks core back again this season, look for Giannis to lead them deep in the playoffs yet again.

Khris Middleton SG/SF – All-NBA Candidate (33 minutes per game)

Being compared to Michael Jordan one day and getting called trash the other, Middleton’s inconsistent season had people wondering if he could be the 2nd best player on a championship team. While the inconsistencies remained prevalent in the playoffs, the answer was clear; yes he can definitely be the 2nd best player on a championship team. As amazing as Giannis was in the playoffs, more times than not, it was actually Khris Middleton closing out games for the bucks and making shot after shot down the stretch. Middleton had 18 points on 75% shooting in the clutch in the NBA Finals and also tied LeBron James for the most go-ahead or game-tying field goals (15) in a single-playoffs in the last 25 years. Middleton averaged a team high 33.4 minutes per game last season and remains the number 2 on the defending champions.

Jrue Holiday PG/SG – High-End Starter (32 minutes per game)

Similar to Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday was in a constant flux of being called overrated and underrated last season. The Bucks gave up four first round picks and two first round pick swaps to acquire Jrue Holiday, essentially mortgaging their future. The goal was simple, keep Giannis and make a finals-run immediately… And it worked. Holiday averaged 17.7 points, 6.1 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game during the regular season and shot 39.2% from three. Then in the playoffs, his shooting touch disappeared outside of a few games. Holiday had shooting splits of 40.6/30.3/71.4 which were well below his season and career averages. With that being said, his defense on Chris Paul and Devin Booker, as well as his playmaking (8.7 assists per game) made up for his shooting woes. Overpaying for Holiday proved to be the right move as the Bucks won their first title since 1971. Holiday should average right around the 32.3 minutes per game that he played last season.

Brook Lopez C – Starter (26 minutes per game)

Lopez did not get off to a great 2020-2021 season and half way through the year, some fans were even calling for undrafted rookie Mamadi Diakite to get more minutes instead of Lopez. Before the all-star break Lopez was averaging just 10.8 points and 1.3 blocks per game on 46.7% shooting, but post all-star break he raised all three of those stats to 13.9 points and 1.6 blocks per game on 53.5% shooting. Brook ended the regular season strong, having his best month of the season in April and he carried that momentum over to the playoffs. In the playoffs he also had his highs and lows, but had a couple of huge moments in every series. Most notably, Lopez had his 33-point (on 14-18 shooting), 4-block, and 2-steal explosion in game 5 against the Hawks, which gave the Bucks a 3-2 series lead. The 33-year-old averaged 27.2 minutes per game last season and should have a similar role again in 2021-2022.

Donte DiVincenzo PG/SG – Starter (27 minutes per game)

Many people might have forgotten how good DiVincenzo was for the Bucks last season before his injury. He started all 66 games in which he played and averaged 10.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game and was a reliable knock down shooter at 37.9% from deep. Unfortunately, Donte was only able to play in three playoff games before he tore a ligament in his foot, ending his season. This loss was huge for the Bucks and essentially forced them to play a 7-man rotation the remainder of the playoff run. While he wasn’t a huge part of the title-run, he will definitely still have a key role on this team in 2020-2021. Last season he averaged 27.5 minutes per game last season. Grayson Allen could take a minute or two from him, but DiVincenzo is the starting SG until further notice. 

Bobby Portis PF/C – High-End Backup (23 minutes per game)

Bobby Portis became a fan favorite for Bucks Nation as last season progressed. He is not only a high-effort backup who plays with tons of emotion, but he was also a long-range sniper shooting a remarkable 47.1% from three. Much like Connaughton, Portis was unafraid of the bright lights and big moments and that allowed Coach Budenholzer to gravitate towards Portis when the Bucks needed a spark. Portis recorded 9 games of 11+ points in the playoffs, 6 of which came in the Eastern Finals or NBA Finals. He averaged 20.8 minutes per game in 2020-2021 and should remain a consistent bench piece for the Bucks this upcoming season, even seeing a slight uptick in minutes.

Pat Connaughton SG/SF – Backup (22 minutes per game)

Pat Connaughton definitely earned his $5 million contract last season, being the only reliable backup wing in the playoffs for the Bucks, even averaging 30.0 minutes off the bench in the NBA finals. Connaughton averaged just 6.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.2 assists in 22.8 minutes per game during regular season, but Pat looked unfazed to both take and make huge shots in the playoffs. Milwaukee brought in Grayson Allen this offseason which could eat into his minutes some in 2021-2022, but Connaughton should stick around the 20-22-minute range.

Grayson Allen – High-End Backup (21 minutes per game)

The Bucks actively pursued Grayson Allen this offseason after backup SG, Bryn Forbes, declined his player option and later signed with San Antonio. Allen had a breakout season in his fourth year, averaging 10.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists (as well as 39.1% from three) in 50 games with the Grizzlies. Milwaukee only had to give up two future second-round picks and Sam Merrill to get Allen and he is surely an upgrade over Forbes, who was unplayable in their playoff run. Allen will absorb the 19.3 minutes per game that Forbes had last season and will also likely grab a few minutes from DiVincenzo and Pat Connaughton as well.

George Hill PG – Backup (13 minutes per game)

Can we give a moment of silence for George Hill? Hill was on Milwaukee for both the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons in which the Bucks fell short of the finals. He was then part of the Jrue Holiday trade and spent last season on the Thunder and 76ers as he watched his former team with the NBA Finals. Now the ringless 35-year-old is back on the Bucks yet again, looking for his first title. Hill is getting up there in age, but is a solid backup floor general who is also a career 38.4% three-point shooter. He is likely the 9th man on this roster but should fill in for the 12-16 minutes per game that Jeff Teague played for the Bucks the end of last season.

Semi Ojeleye SF/PF – Low-End Backup (6 minutes per game)

Semi Ojeleye has not really been a notable player for his entire career. Drafted in the 2nd round in 2017, he played four seasons with the Celtics and was a big reason why they had one of the most inefficient bench units the last few years. Boston ranked 5th worst in the entire league last year in bench FG%. Ojeleye himself shoots only 39.4% from the field in his career and is a below average defender as well. Semi has at least shot 37% from beyond the arc the last two seasons and perhaps a change in scenery will do Ojeleye well. Still, the Bucks don’t have much invested in him so Thanasis Antetokounmpo could easily fill these minutes instead.

Mamadi Diakite PF/C – Low-End Backup (4 minutes per game)

The lanky big from the University of Virginia appeared in just 14 games for the Bucks last season, but all reports indicate that the coaching staff love what they have seen from the 24-year-old. Diakite did start the final regular season game for Milwaukee last season and posted 13 points, 7 rebounds, 3 steals, and a block. As Brook Lopez is starting to get up there in age, look for the Bucks to get Diakite some more minutes this season to see what they have in the young big man.

Projected Nightly Depth Chart:

PG: Jrue Holiday/George Hill/Donte DiVincenzo

SG: Donte DiVincenzo/Grayson Allen/Pat Connaughton

SF: Khris Middleton/Pat Connaughton/Grayson Allen

PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Bobby Portis/Semi Ojeleye

C: Brook Lopez/Bobby Portis/Mamadi Diakite

Not in Initial Rotation:

Rodney Hood SG/SF

Thanasis Antetokounmpo PF

Jordon Nwora SF/PF

Georgios Kalaitzakis SF

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