50/40/90 Club Background
Only 9 players have ever been a part of the 50/40/90 club in the NBA and it has only happened 13 total times in NBA history. With that being said, it has happened twice in the last three seasons (Malcolm Brogdon in 2018-2019 and Kyrie Irving last season) so it is becoming more of a trend. Players are the most efficient they have ever been as shooters in the current NBA.
To qualify for the 50/40/90 club, players must make at least 300 field goals, 82 three-pointers, and 125 free throws. The only active players in the club are Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Malcolm Brogdon and Kyrie Irving. Which NBA players have the best chance to join them in this prestigious club in 2021-2022?
Limiting the Candidates
Nowadays the hardest aspect of making the 50/40/90 club is typically the 90%+ free throw requirement with 125+ attempts. We can start eliminating potential candidates by excluding every player who did not shoot at least 85.0+ percent from the charity stripe last season. This brings our starting list of 110 players down to just 38 players. I will mention one outlier who has a longshot at 50/40/90 this season who did not meet this requirement; Zach Lavine. While he only shot 84.9% from the free throw line last season, he did shoot 50.7% from the field and 41.9% from three (both career highs). He likely won’t reach the FT requirement, but LaVine is definitely trending upward.
We continue to reduce the pool by only counting players who also shot 47.0+ percent from the field last season. This brings the initial pool of 38 players down to just 24 players. Through this process, we lose the likes of Damian Lillard, Paul George, Jason Tatum, and Brandon Ingram, among others.
Next we add on the “beyond the arc” aspect of the 50/40/90 club in 3FG%. Of the 24 players, we accept only players who shot 37.0+ percent from deep in 2020-2021. This forces four players to drop out, leaving us with only 20 players to sort through. Through this step, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal do not make the cut.
Now that we are down to a mere 20 players, we are looking at getting rid of the players who have squeaked by in the prior pool reductions. An example of a player who met all prior requirements but has little to no chance at the 50/40/90 club is Kristaps Porzingis. While he had above average shooting splits of 47.6/37.6/85.5, he is not a lock in any category and is quite far away from all three splits. In this step we are narrowing it down to only players who have a 87.0 or higher total for FG% total + 3FG% total. This forces out the bottom eight players and we are left with a perfect dozen:
Kevin Durant: 98.7
Nikola Jokic: 95.4
Kawhi Leonard: 91.0
Kyrie Irving: 90.8
Tobias Harris: 90.6
Steph Curry: 90.3
Chris Paul: 89.4
Khris Middleton: 89.0
Joel Embiid: 89.0
Norman Powell: 88.8
Jamal Murray: 88.5
Karl-Anthony Towns: 87.3
From these finalists, we can remove the three players who are already part of the club in Curry, KD, and Kyrie. We can also remove Jamal Murray and Kawhi Leonard, who will likely not be able to meet the total requirements due to the significant injuries they are rehabbing from. That means we are realistically looking at seven players who could join the 50/40/90 club in 2020-2021. Here are the candidates ranked in order of likelihood to achieve this challenging feat:
1. Chris Paul
2020-2021 Splits – 49.9/39.5/93.4 (0.6% away)
Weaknesses: None
If you listen to the Free Throws in the Phog podcast, you will already know that Chris Paul is my favorite to join the 50/40/90 club this season. With shooting splits last season that nearly had him in there, he was actually closer than most people realize. CP3 was just 0.5 made field goals and 1.2 made threes away from the requirements. This means that if he had simply made two more of the three-pointers that he attempted we would have had ten players instead of nine in the club going into this season.
2. Khris Middleton
2020-2021 Splits – 47.6/41.4/89.8 (2.6% away)
Weaknesses: FG%
The only other player that I would be willing to actually throw a bet on to join the 50/40/90 club in the next few seasons is the Milwaukee Bucks wing, Khris Middleton. Much like CP3, in 2019-2020, Middleton was extremely close to making it with splits of 49.7/41.5/91.6. He was just three more made field goals away from joining his ex-teammate Malcolm Brogdon. His FG% did also dip to 47.6% last season, but with the Bucks adding shooters like Grayson Allen, George Hill, and Jordan Nwora, Middleton shouldn’t have to carry the offensive load as much this year, which in theory will lead to a more efficient shooting season.
3. Tobias Harris
2020-2021 Splits – 51.2/39.4/89.2 (1.4% away)
Weaknesses: FT%
Harris is another player who was very close to 50/40/90 last season. While I do think that he could easily replicate his FG% and has had a 40%+ three-point shooting season before, the free throws are going to be a steep task. The 89.2% last season was a career high for Tobias and he hasn’t had another season over 86.6% from the line. He is also just a career 82.7% free throw shooter, but if he can pace his foul shots from last season, he has a chance at the club.
4. Karl-Anthony Towns
2020-2021 Splits – 48.6/38.7/85.9 (6.8% away)
Weaknesses: FT%
KAT has shot 50%+ from the field every season but last season. He has shot 40%+ from beyond the arc three times and is a career 39.5% shooter from deep. With that being said, no true center has ever shot 90%+ from the free throw line. Regardless, Dirk Nowitzki, Danilo Gallinari, and Larry Bird, to name a few, have all done it as power forwards and KAT’s shooting stroke is perhaps the best for a center all-time. The FT% will be the key but that is likely a few seasons away still.
5. Norman Powell
2020-2021 Splits – 47.7/41.1/87.1 (5.2% away)
Weaknesses: FG% and FT%
The biggest dark-house to join 50/40/90 this season is Norman Powell. While everyone else on this list is a top 50 player, Powell has only recently turned into a full-time starter. He has consistently been a 40% shooter from beyond the arc, and has saw his FT% increase as he’s taken a higher volume of them. Much like when Brogdon was playing third-fiddle behind Giannis and Khris Middleton, Norman Powell will be able to take higher percentage shots being the third option behind Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
6. Nikola Jokic
2020-2021 Splits – 56.6/38.8/86.8 (4.4% away)
Weaknesses: 3FG% and FT%
Jokic became the lowest draft pick of all-time (41st) to win the MVP award, and his increase in overall efficiency was a big reason as to why. Jokic will be a lock to reach 50%+ from the field for the rest of his basketball career. His three-point shooting is still streaky at times, however, and his free throws are just good, not elite. Jokic joining the club this season is fairly unlikely, but definitely not out of the realm of possibility.
7. Joel Embiid
2020-2021 Splits – 51.3/37.7/85.9 (6.4% away)
Weaknesses: 3FG% and FT%
The 2nd 76er on this list and by far the most unrealistic candidate to make 50/40/90 this season on this list is Joel Embiid. His shooting splits last year were all career highs, but he is not expected to repeat his shooting efficiency from 2020-2021. He is more likely to dip back down to his career average shooting splits of 48.6/33.0/80.8. The only hope would be that no Ben Simmons opens up even more space for Embiid and he takes another leap this season. He probably does not have 50/40/90 on the horizon.
