Lonzo Ball’s final game in his inaugural season in Chicago took place on January 14th. Patrick Williams returned to action on March 21st following surgery to repair damaged ligaments in his wrist sustained in the fifth game of the season. Alex Caruso missed nearly two months with a broken wrist following a nasty fall caused by an out-of-control Grayson Allen flagrant-two foul.
Zach LaVine tweaked his knee prior to the All-Star Game in Cleveland, requiring a minor procedure to drain fluid to provide some level of relief. LaVine never quite reached the level of strength or confidence in the knee required to play his aggressive game again. Fatigue played a part in DeMar DeRozan’s regression from his second-team caliber start to the calendar year which included an unsustainable scoring clip of 35+ in eight consecutive games, ending against the Memphis Grizzlies, the start of a five-game skid.
The slide from top spot in the east to vying for a guaranteed playoff spot seemingly happened overnight. But it wasn’t unpredictable. Injuries and a COVID outbreak prevented the Bulls from playing more than five games with its desired starting rotation. Ball, Williams and LaVine all missed numerous games, the forward and point guard missing hefty stretches, but in doses, replacements stepped up defensively. And DeRozan’s presence in the regular season carried the Bulls offensively specifically against inferior opponents.
However, against supreme talent and decent coaching, the Bulls finished 1-14 against teams ranked 1-4 in the Eastern Conference. The lone win in that sample came against the Celtics on November 1st with a final score of 128-114. At the time of the loss, Boston possessed a 2-5 record to start the season. The Celtics did not eclipse the .500 mark until November 28th, thirteen games after the Bulls whomping.
Expectations, damn expectations and statistics.
Injuries certainly impacted the Bulls down the stretch. The team’s record following the break reflected the consequences of hardship. Heading into the All-Star Game, the Bulls sat in second place in a hotly contested conference, tied for first with the Miami Heat, surrendering the head-to-head tiebreaker. Following the break, Chicago dropped fifteen of twenty-three contests to close out the regular season, good enough to secure sixth place.
With the clear impact of the various absences reflected in the standings, the excuse was acceptable. But as players returned, the goalposts of genuine accountability for the woes continuously shifted. Eventually it was impossible to critique the roster configuration or the defensive schematics without a hellfire of disagreement from a fanbase blindly satisfied with just clinching a spot in the playoffs.
Expectations didn’t change. Before the season when every major hoops publication blasted the DeRozan signing, deeming it the worst of the offseason, the goal was a surprise playoff appearance, growth as a unit and a clear direction toward success for the franchise. A 26-10 record on January 7th, good enough for the top spot in the east, should’ve changed the vision. Instead, incapable of true criticism, exhibiting caution in displaying extreme excitement, when the Bulls dropped seven of its next nine games, expectations remained with a playoff appearance as the ultimate goal despite the Bulls holding steady among the peak of the Eastern Conference mountain.
A one-point victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder picked up the twenty-ninth win for an avalanching squad. With under six minutes remaining the third quarter, it appeared the Bulls snapped out of its skid with an substantial twenty-seven point barrier. Instead, Oklahoma City stormed back within one in the waning seconds, forcing the Bulls to nail unimaginably clutch free throws.
I’m only petty because I was right.
Following the blown lead, one fan took to Twitter to express his displeasure with the lackadaisical coaching and on-court effort displayed over the previous two weeks culminating in a near-blown twenty-seven point lead against one of the league’s worst teams.
The thought of simply examining Donovan’s performance through the rest of the season under the scope of the Bulls possessing the ability to contend for a championship didn’t sit well with other Bulls fans that refused to raise their preseason expectations and desires.
The fan’s tweet doesn’t imply that Donovan’s job is in even the slightest bit of jeopardy. It does ask for a genuine conversation on the former Oklahoma City Thunder and Florida Gators coach’s impact and ability to propel the team further than a first-round exit in the near future and beyond. It specifically doesn’t reflect well on a coach that touts an excellent defensive set when the team he coaches finishes 23rd in the league in Team Defensive Rating (h/t NBA.com).
Instead of a truly engaging conversation about Donovan’s imperfections, and the lack of immediately available coaching talent capable of leading an imperfect roster on a deep stretch without poaching another team’s superior or proven leader, the response was recklessly hostile.
And a personal favorite of mine; a conversation sparked between CHGO Sports writer and podcaster Mark K. and NBC Sports Chicago’s Kevin Anderson (I’m not petty, trust me):
Well I certainly hope Mark K. has recovered from his medical issues stemming from reading my tweet.
Crumblin’, bumblin’, stumblin’, tumblin’ down the standings.
Unfortunately, the Bulls indeed crumbled down the stretch. Injuries absolutely factored into the demise. However, with the exception Lonzo Ball and Matt Thomas, the Bulls upon Alex Caruso’s return sported just a 6-10 record. And with Patrick Williams for the home stretch, just 5-7. But injuries still shielded a great majority of the blame. Why? I don’t know. Ball’s impact is a drastic one, however, it is not an eight-game WAR. Lonzo’s absence isn’t the root cause of Chicago’s inability to hang with the big boys of the NBA. Roster configuration is a fine source to lay blame, but Artūras Karnišovas and Marc Eversley built a roster that competed for the one seed in the east through February. Depth issues would always rear an ugly head based on what plagued the team in stretches of hardship in spurts.
But as DeRozan slowed a bit through the home stretch following the break, and as Vučević searched for his shot, and as the team progressively regained some health lost in December and January, the defense never solidified.
But why, Mark? Why?
There’s a good portion of accuracy to what Mark K. is saying, particularly because it was never anybody’s intention for Caruso to start, but the Ball injury dictated that out of anybody’s control. And the front office opted to keep the current roster intact at the trade deadline and ride it out with the group at hand. After all, it was only after the deadline that the Bulls picked up Tristan Thompson in the buy-out market to replace Tony Bradley in the rotation behind Vučević. But the refusal to blame Donovan’s defensive deficiencies and the lack of tempo the Bulls carried into the playoffs against Milwaukee is astonishing.
Mark at the very least displayed consistency with a desire to deal Patrick Williams for a playable asset down the stretch.
He’d later (correctly) criticize the fanbase for clamoring for more Williams usage already down 2-1 in the series against the Bucks.
Except, what’s the issue here?
The time for Donovan to work Williams into the offense was when Williams had attained a conditioning level adequate for consistent playing time. His minutes grew over the final stretch of the season, and the second-year forward even scored a career-high thirty-five points in the season finale against Minnesota. However, the final game wasn’t an accurate depiction of what the Bulls would attempt against Milwaukee a week later.
If Donovan wanted to implant Williams into the starting lineup for the playoffs, he probably should’ve acted like it within the last two weeks of the season when a healthy Williams became an available option.
Roster configuration under the microscope of a six-seeded slide brought to light glaring holes in the untested depth. But incredibly poor shooting and apathetic efforts on defense highlighted severe deficiencies in the starting rotation. That should automatically call into question Donovan’s ability to get players to follow-through on their supposed “buy-in” to his system, but also his lackluster rotations that seemingly forfeit games at the earliest signs of defeat. Instead he’s getting a pass because DeRozan, LaVine, Vučević and company just simply isn’t enough and it’s solely on bad shooting nights and the stubbornness of the front office at the trade deadline. Certainly nothing could fall on the coach’s shoulders.
Well, when does that attitude change?
Bulls fans appear broken-minded because of the Hoiberg and Boylen eras that any improvement from the previous regimes is enough to sell a soul. However, Donovan’s record of playoff success isn’t exactly one to latch onto with a blinding appreciation.
Following Kevin Durant’s departure after a blown 3-1 series lead against Golden State in the 2016 Western Conference Finals, Oklahoma City failed to reach the second round of the playoffs for three consecutive seasons, eventually blowing up the roster for draft picks and starting from scratch. The Thunder roster in 2019 consisted of Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Jerami Grant and Steven Adams. OKC attempted a half-assed retool, trading Westbrook for Chris Paul, acquiring consistent shooters, and boasted the seventh-ranked Team Defensive Efficiency Rating before losing to Westbrook and the Rockets in seven games in the first round of the bubble.
Donovan’s still a good coach.
He’s capable of hoisting teams to the first round of the playoffs. However, without one of the greatest players of our generation on his roster, he fails to push his squads any further. He’s a beautiful stepping-stone coach. He brought Chicago from the dark days of Chick Fil-A’s favorite customer Jim Boylen, and from the depths of Fred Hoiberg and Gar Forman’s shared basement all the way to this point. Why waste his work and not improve at every turn including, but not limited to identifying a coach capable of playoff success?
The Bucks presented an unbelievable physical mismatch for the Bulls. In Game One, poor shooting from both teams prevented either squad from pulling away until Milwaukee secured things late. Game Two was Donovan’s best coaching effort in months, building solid rotations, and an early lead, only sustainable with positive tempo and at the very least, decent shooting. Games three and four saw the defense on DeRozan change, an iso-predicated offense struggle, and an inability to cover five people at a given time. At the United Center, the Bucks outscored the Bulls by fifty-four points. In Chicago. Unacceptable physical effort and mind-numbingly poor switches paired with lousy shooting, the Bulls never had a shot.
And while the effort appears poor, and the blowouts happen, the Bulls’ defense is actually better than the regular season. Small sample size, and altered by quickly decided outcomes, but the defense is almost six points better this postseason, good enough for fourth of sixteen qualifiers. And still losing back-to-back home playoff games by thirty points and twenty-four points respectively.
The most difficult shot in basketball is the wide-open three.
The disparity between the three losses and one victory boils down to the offense now. And Donovan’s not the one missing shots, however, in watching the games, what’s the glaring difference? The tempo. Donovan agreed after Sunday’s loss. But it mystifies him as to how they continuously lose their way. Milwaukee’s playing superb defense, especially after Game Two.
But the Bulls are seeing open looks, just not knocking them down. Vučević is 10/33 from three in the series, just 4/15 in the previous two losses. He didn’t have his shot throughout a majority of the regular season, now he’s the only guy open on the floor, so he’s trying to find it. The offense is DeRozan/LaVine driving the lane, kicking out to Vučević or Caruso or Coby White for a missed three. Rinse. Repeat. That’s what coaching allowed it to become in the regular season; it’s what the offense is singularly capable of when it matters. It’s a make-or-miss league, and the Bulls are missing from deep, and unable to adapt in the huddle or on-the-fly to poor shooting nights. The eventual outcome is apparent in the first quarter on most nights due to Chicago’s inability to adjust its strategy mid-game.
It’s an unfortunate circumstance, but the Bulls have a Billy Donovan problem. And until the roster and staff see eye-to-eye on the capability and priority to win when it matters most, the Bulls won’t see the second round of the playoffs.