Things are looking pretty bleak. After failing to even cover against Duke and dropping the final game of the regular season, the Tar Heels fell to dead last in the ACC.
There are a lot of excuses that could be made, and that Roy Williams has made this season. But taking a look at the numbers, North Carolina is a lot better than you might think and could be peaking at just the right time.
This article will outline five cases for UNC to win the ACC and make a run in March. This will either be an article that can be bragged about and retweeted throughout a magical Tar Heel tournament run or a massive waste of my time. That is a risk I am willing to take. Let’s get into it.
Check out the full ACC tournament preview here.
Case #1 – Point Differential
UNC started the year blazing hot and was ranked as high as No. 5 in the country. They lost star PG Cole Anthony, and the team began to fall off the rails. Even when he came back, they struggled to put together wins. Upon close examination, some of these games could be chalked up to bad luck.
UNC boasts a +/- of +5 since January 22. Their record? 5-9. Very interesting, but there is a lot to unpack. Yes, they had games they were blown out in, and games they blew teams out in. But in close games, they were extraordinarily bad. During that same stretch, UNC was 0-5 in games decided by 3 points or fewer and games that went to overtime. Included in that 0-5 is these collection of moments.
These are three conference games that would have pushed UNC to 9th in the ACC and a 16-15 record. Two of these games are against Top 25 teams in the country, and a win like that looks really good on the resume.
I am not going to dwell in the past. Obviously, the committee can not give *almost wins to a 13-18 team, but this is my first case to a UNC ACC tournament run.
Case #2 – Roy Williams
This case is more of a statement of fact. Roy Williams has been there before. He has carved out a nice career pulling the most out of his players, especially upperclassmen, at just the right time.
Three-time NCAA tournament champion, nine Final Fours, and almost 900 career wins is quite the resume. And although the 2019 edition of the UNC Tar Heels may have pushed him to the brink of retirement, Williams understands they are not out of it yet (hopefully).
Case #3 – ACC Bracket
Breaking it down game by game, this is one of the better draws UNC could have hoped for (considering they are dead last in the ACC). The last time UNC and Virginia Tech battled it out, the Tar Heels came up short off of, get this, a game-winner in double overtime from Hokies guard Tyrece Radford. V Tech has limped to the finish, winning two out of their last 13 games. Vegas favors UNC by 4.5 points for its first-round matchup.
Their second round match-up pits them against Syracuse, a team they beat in their house by 13. We have much bigger fish to fry than breaking this matchup down, so let’s assume they make it through.
The remaining matchups are all going to be against the best of the best in the ACC. They have played close against each of these teams at times this season. Based on the reasons listed above, and the two huge cases after this, they have the pieces in place to pull off a couple of upsets.
Case #4 – Cole Anthony
Stop me if you have heard this story before: star PG propels team on the fringe to a national title run. Although he has faced some serious ups and downs, Anthony’s draft stock and the entire team need him to show up over these next few weeks.
But let me assure those fears of yours: he really is THAT good. When he gets it going, any team in the nation is going to have a hard time shutting him down.
Here is a list of some of Anthony’s best games this season.
28 pts 7 ast 8/14 FG 4/5 3PT W vs Wake Forest
25 pts 7 ast 8/13 FG 7/11 3PT W @ Syracuse
34 pts 11 reb 5 ast 12/24 FG 6/11 3 PT W vs Notre Dame
Fun fact: Cole Anthony is 5-1 in his career at UNC when shooting over 45%. Unfortunate reality? He has only shot over 45% in six(6)((!!)) games this year. That is a huge ask for a guy shooting 35% on the season, but he has proven it is possible.
Ultimately, the fate of UNC will not lie in Cole Anthony. He can carry them in big moments, even some games. But the biggest star, the #1 reason for the success or failure of UNC’s postseason hopes, will lie in the hands of another player, junior forward Garrison Brooks.
Case #5 – Garrison Brooks
It is not like I am uncovering some big secret for UNC. Anyone who has been around the Tar Heels or watched one of their games over the past few weeks knows that Garrison Brooks is really good at basketball.
The junior forward came into the season with big expectations, taking on a bigger role than in previous years. He experienced a lot of up and down play at the beginning of the season. But he soon flashed signs of elite play, including 35 points on 50% shooting in a loss to Georgia Tech and 28 pts in the double OT loss to Virginia Tech.
In the last six games, Brooks has scored at least 20 points, shooting over 60% in all but one of those games. He is also a menace on the boards, corralling 7+ rebounds in all but one of those games during that span.
He is a two-folded threat. The three-year player draws defensive attention to himself but also draws it away from Anthony. But, in games that Anthony cannot get it going, the Tar Heels desperately need some offense, and Brooks will be called upon time and time again. Will he answer the call?