A Big 12 showdown is just what the doctor ordered for Thursday night college football. Last night we went 1-1 (-0.1u)after I fell into the trap of the Miami Vice jerseys. FIU has one of the worst defenses in the country. They were lucky that UTEP didn’t score 40+ points on them alone. Now we sit on 2-1 for the week and have a 17-12 record (+4.83u) for best bets on the season. Hitting 58.6% of the best bets this season is a start that we like to see. Now we move on to this Thursday Night showdown. A suprising West Virginia team taking on a Houston team that is disappointing in their first season in the Big 12 so far. These two teams are due for a good showdown. With that being said here is my best bet for tonight’s Big 12 college football showdown.
West Virginia (-2.5) vs Houston (O/U 49.5) 7:00 PM EST
The West Virginia Mountaineers have been red hot. Head coach Neal Brown went from being on the hot seat to completely safe. The Mountaineers average 191.8 rushing yards per game which is ranked 52nd in the country. One bad thing about this offense is that their passing attack is non-existent. West Virginia averages 155.6 passing yards per game which is 228th in the nation. With the offense having its struggles, their defense has been pretty solid these last four weeks.
They have allowed 21 or fewer points and have beaten Texas Tech and went to TCU and beat them last week as well. West Virginia allows only 114.8 rushing yards per game which is 65th in the country. They hold opponents to 27.8% on third down conversions and rank in the top 100 in the nation in total yards allowed per game. Their defense is the best part of this team and if they keep Houston to under 21 points, they have a good chance of winning.
Houston Cougars
Houston has had a rough start in the Big 12. They lost by 23 to TCU and got beat by 21 by Texas Tech in their last game. The Cougars have had since September 30th to prepare for West Virginia. This game means more to Houston’s head coach Dana Holgorsen who coached the Mountaineers from 2011-2018. Houston’s offense has taken a step back, but they are still a good offensive team. The Cougars average 281 passing yards per game which is 37th in the country and average just under 430 total yards of offense per game as well. Defensively, the Cougars struggle. They allow 415.2 total yards of offense per game which is not great, while also allowing just under 30 points per game. Houston needs to stop West Virginia’s rushing attack and not allow them to convert on third down. The Cougars allow 40.9% of third downs to convert to first downs. Holgorsen has to get this team ready and with the extra time to prepare, I think Houston has a chance here.
Betting Trends
-West Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
-West Virginia unders’ are 6-3 in their last 9 games overall.
-Houston overs are 12-6 in their last 18 games overall.
-Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Houston +125 and under 49.5 -109 for one unit each. 78% of the bets are on West Virginia -2.5 and this is a big trap game in my honest opinion. The Mountaineers are going to use their rushing attack to try and control this game. West Virginia’s defense has been great, but I think this is the game that they are in trouble. Houston will keep the Mountaineers offense off the field and the points will be limited. Take the Cougars on the money line and for the under in this Big 12 showdown.
