We went 1-3 (-2.33u) last week which is not great. Back to back losing weeks, and a record of 12-10 (+2.03u) is what we are at right now in best bets. This week I am back and ready to get back to my winning ways. Here are my best bets for week six in college football.
Oklahoma vs Texas (-5.5) (O/U 60.5) 12 PM EST
The Red River Rivalry is taking place one last time as members of the Big 12. Oklahoma didn’t forget the beatdown they were given last season. They are ready to turn the tides this season. The Sooners are ranked 10th in total yards of offense per game, 8th in passing yards per game and 3rd in points per game. Oklahoma is a high-powered offense that has converted on 54.4% of their third down attempts which is t-11th in the country. This high-powered offense is led by Dillon Gabriel who in the first five games has 1,593 passing yards to go along with 19 total touchdowns and 2 interceptions. People forget that Texas was the only game that Gabriel missed last season. This Oklahoma team is poised for a better performance in this showdown this year.
Texas offensively hasn’t blown me out of the water yet. This offense averages 36 points per game to go along with 488.4 total yards of offense. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has played well so far with 1,358 passing yards to go along with 15 total touchdowns and 1 interception. However, this offense flourishes with the good play of running back Jonathon Brooks. Brooks averages 6.9 yards per carry to go along with 597 rushing yards (3rd in the nation) and 5 touchdowns. That is the real story of this offense. However, their defense has been great this year. For a Big 12 defense to allow just over 300 total yards of offense per game is impressive. They are really good against the run as they allow less than 100 rushing yards per game and allow 12.8 points per game as well. People want to praise Quinn Ewers and this offense, but this defense is a big reason why Texas is where they are today.
Betting Trends
-Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
-Oklahoma overs are 5-2 in their last 7 games overall.
-Texas is 1-4 ATS in last 5 Saturday home games.
-Texas unders are 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Oklahoma +5.5 -105 and over 60.5 -110 for one unit each. 69% of the money is on Texas and their track record as being a favorite in this matchup since 2005 is on the Longhorns side. However, I think Oklahoma can keep this close and both offenses are going to put up a ton of points. It is a two play game and both are going to hit to kick off the best bet slate here.
Alabama (-1.5) vs Texas A&M (O/U 46.5) 3:30 PM EST
This matchup is getting some hype this week. Alabama isn’t the same Alabama team we are used to seeing. Offensively, this might be the worst we have seen in years. They average 32.2 points per game, but they rank in the top 100 in the nation in only rushing yards per game. Too much inconsistency at quarterback has this team all out of sorts offensively. However, luckily for Alabama their defense is good yet again. The Crimson Tide defense allows 14.2 points per game and ranks in the top 75 in the country in total yards of offense allowed per game, and rushing and passing yards allowed per game. This Alabama defense is a huge reason why they are 4-1 this season.
Texas A&M has a lot of hype around them even after losing starting quarterback Connor Weigman for the season. This Aggies offense averages 38.6 points per game while playing all inferior opponents besides Miami. They convert 50% of their third down attempts and averages a little more than 450 total yards of offense per game. Defensively, the Aggies rank in the top 45 in the country in total yards allowed per game as well as passing yards and rushing yards allowed per game as well. Texas A&M’s defense is going to need to be big time in this if they want to beat Alabama for the third time since 2014.
Betting Trends
-Alabama 9-1 straight up in last 10 games vs Texas A&M
-Alabama is 13-3 straight up in their last 16 road games overall.
-Texas A&M overs are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings with Alabama.
-Texas A&M are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bets
I am taking two plays in this one. First and foremost I am taking Alabama -120 for 2 units. Second I am taking the over 46.5 at -105 for 2 units as well. This is a four unit game and I am super confident in this one. Alabama started as a 2.5 point favorite and the line went down to 1.5 with the money still heavily on Alabama. Immediately, you want to take A&M based on that. However, ride Nick Saban to the cash counter and we will see you when you hit the two double unit plays.
