We are back for week three in college football. Last week we had a fantastic showing, finishing 4-1 (+3.38u). We had a Triple winner on the Miami Hurricanes spread, moneyline and the over in that game. The confidence was up on the Hurricanes and they didn’t disappoint for your boy last week. My best bets are now 6-5 (+0.96u) on the season. With two consecutive winning weeks, here are my best bets for week three of college football.
LSU (-9.5) vs Mississippi State (O/U 54.5) 12 PM EST
This LSU vs Mississippi State matchup has the potential to be a lot closer than people think. LSU’s offense should feast against this terrible Mississippi State defense who gave up 431 total yards to Arizona last week. However, LSU’s secondary is also struggling and Mississippi State should be able to move the ball through the air. This is going to come down to coaching being the biggest factor in this game. For LSU, this is a must win because if they lose here they will not be anywhere near the College Football Playoff. Mississippi State has the chance to get Arnett his first big win in his short head coaching career. This is a great way to kick off the 12 PM slate on Saturday afternoon.
Betting Trends
-LSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Mississippi State
-The over has hit in LSU’s last 6 games.
-Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
-Mississippi State is 8-1 straight up in their last 8 home games.
The Don’s Play
I am taking the over 54.5 at -110 odds for one unit. LSU is going to put up points and I think that Mississippi State can keep this close. Over 80 percent of the money is on the under, the public love the under so we are going to take the over. This has a 31-24 final score written all over it. Just take the points and watch these SEC offenses put up points.
Kansas State (-3.5) vs Missouri (O/U 47.5) 12 PM EST
Missouri hasn’t played the best teams coming into this one. They go up against Kansas State who ranks number one in the country defensively against the run. Missouri averages 395 total yards of offense through two games and they also average 29 points per game. The Wildcats have allowed 38 rushing yards per game and have allowed 290 total yards of offense per game in their first two matchups. Brady Cook is the key for Missouri’s offense. If he plays well, the Tigers will be a tough matchup against the Wildcats.
Kansas State’s offense averages 496.5 total yards of offense per game (21st in the nation). Missouri is also good against the run, as they allow 58.5 rushing yards per game (21st in the nation). Will Howard is going to cause this Missouri team some fits. However, at home where Missouri has had success I trust their defense to cause some havoc.
Betting Trends
-Kansas State 6-2 straight up in their last 8 road games.
-Kansas State 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
-Missouri 5-1 straight up in their last 6 home games.
-The under has hit in 13 out of Missouri’s last 18 games.
The Don’s Play
I am taking Missouri +3.5 -102 odds and Missouri +150 for one unit a piece. If you remember during my college football previews, I am high on Missouri this season. I understand that Kansas State is really good, but if they were as good as people think they wouldn’t be just a 3.5 point favorite against Missouri. The public is all over Kansas State as 92% of the bets are on their spread. Hammer the Tigers as they upset the Wildcats on Saturday afternoon.
Pittsburgh vs West Virginia (-2.5) (O/U 47.5) 7:30 PM EST
This is a great rivalry game that never gets enough attention. Both teams are unranked, however whenever they meet it is an entertaining game. West Virginia and Pittsburgh average over 30 points per game and both offenses are very one sided. The Mountaineers average 225 rushing yards per game (33rd in the nation). While Pittsburgh relies on Phil Jurkovec for their offensive success.
Defensively, both of these teams can improve. West Virginia is good against the run and Pittsburgh has a good pass defense. The Panthers allow 268.5 total yards of offense per game (47th in the nation). As good as West Virginia is against the run, they are five times worse against the pass. If they can contain Jurkovec, the West Virginia Mountaineers are going to win this game. However, if Jurkovec plays like he has been it’ll be a Pittsburgh Panthers win.
Betting Trends
-The over has hit in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games overall.
-Pittsburgh is 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games against West Virginia.
-West Virginia overs have hit in 6 out of their last 7 home games.
-West Virginia is 4-1 straight up in their last 5 home games against Pittsburgh.
The Don’s Play
I am taking the Mountaineers -2.5 at -118 odds for one unit. The public is on Pittsburgh and the line has jumped for the Panthers being a one point favorite, to them being close to a three point underdog. Reverse line movement and people want to take Pittsburgh more now because they are getting points. Ride the Mountaineers to win and cover in this one.
