Time to bounce back for week number two. Reluctant to admit we finished 0-3 (-3.53u) last week in best bets. Ended up at 7-9 (-3.1u) for the entire week which is not where we want to be. The good thing about week number two is that the “SYSTEM PLAYS” are officially underway. We rode this system last year and it helped us to make over 12 units on the season. The system is already 1-0 as we had the Vikings +6.5 on Thursday night football. It is a simple system to explain and I am going to explain it to you right now. When you have a matchup for a team that covered last week going up against a team that didn’t cover last week, you take the team that didn’t cover last week to cover in week number two. There are a total of eight system plays for this week that you should keep a close eye on. However, here are my three best bets for NFL week number two.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs Tennessee Titans (O/U 45.5)
The Chargers were very close to not being a system play. Last week, the Chargers led the majority of the game but ended up losing outright as a home favorite. The Titans played a tough defensive battle at New Orleans last week. Quarterback play was brutal from Tennessee’s side last week. Ryan Tannehill had a tough time against a good Saints defense. He tried to force the ball in Hopkins’ hands a ton last week and that might have cost them the game.
The Chargers need their defense to step up this week after a rough showing in week one. Offensively, they will be without Austin Ekeler which is a huge loss for this offense. Since Ekeler has become the full time starter in 2020, the Chargers are 2-5 in games that he hasn’t played in. Without Ekeler this line only jumped from -3 to -2.5 for the Chargers. The reverse line movement was what I was waiting for. It didn’t happen so that helps me make my decision on who I’m putting my money on this week.
Betting Trends
-Chargers are 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games against Tennessee.
-Chargers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.
-Tennessee unders are 11-2 in their last 13 home games.
-Tennessee is 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games against the Chargers.
The Don’s Play
I am taking the Chargers -2.5 at -115 odds for 1.5 units. The under is a lean for me at 45.5, but the Chargers are due for a bounce back spot here against Tennessee. The Tennessee offense was horrible last week and I think they have issues at the quarterback position. Yes, Ekeler is out for the Chargers but I think the Titans offense is that bad. This should be a low scoring game with the Chargers coming out on top by at least a field goal.
New York Giants (-4.5) vs Arizona Cardinals (O/U 39.5)
No team is looking forward to week number two more than the New York Giants. The Giants had horrendous luck in week one and are looking to bounce back in week number two. They go to Arizona to take on a Cardinals team that didn’t look terrible last week against Washington. Arizona’s defense caused some issues last week. However, Brian Daboll is going to have a great game plan to put the Giants in competitive advantage against the Cardinals. Daniel Jones and Saquon are looking to put last week behind them and move forward.
Betting Trends
-Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall games.
-Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
-The under is 4-2 in Arizona’s last 6 overall games.
-The under is 15-5 in Arizona’s last 20 games played in September.
The Don’s Play
I am taking the Giants -4.5 at -102 odds for one unit. New York’s defense didn’t look horrible last week. They allowed less than 300 total yards of offense, however they shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. The Giants are in a bounce back spot here and were a good road team last year. Arizona is trying to lose games and I think they’ll do that and not cover this spread. Ride the Giants to the cash counter.
Miami (-2.5) vs New England (O/U 46.5)
This Sunday night football matchup against AFC East rivals is going to be a good game to watch. We have Miami coming in after a late win against the Chargers last week. The duo of Tyreek Hill and Tua took over late in that game last week. They come into New England to take on a defense that went toe to toe with one of the top offenses from last season. The Patriots only gave up one touchdown defensively and that was due to the short field position.
New England has a lot of positives to build off of from last week. Offensively, they need a play maker to step up for Mac Jones. The running game will be better this week and this Patriots offense is going to be hungry in this divisional showdown. Look for this AFC East primetime matchup to be an entertaining one and much better than last Sunday night’s football game.
Betting Trends
-Miami overs are 8-1 in their last 9 road games overall.
-Miami 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against New England.
-New England overs are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
-Patriots are 12-2 straight up in their last 14 home games against Miami.
The Don’s Play
I am taking the Patriots +2.5 at -102 odds for one unit. Miami is coming off a huge win last week. While the Patriots are looking to build on a great performance defensively from last week. New England has success against Miami at home. Patriots have a chance to get their first win and cover this spread in this game. It’ll be a fun Sunday night football divisional showdown. Look for the Patriots to get you the money as 75% of the bets are on Miami -2.5.
The Full System Plays
We have three of the system plays above, but here is the full list of the system plays for the week two Sunday games.
-Bears +2.5 -102
-Seahawks +4.5 -110
-Bills -8.5 -105
-Chargers -2.5 -115
-Bengals -3 -118
-Chiefs -3.5 -105
-Giants -4.5 -102
-Patriots +2.5 -102
