The end of last week was less than ideal. We lost our game of the year and went 1-3 (-4.11u) on the Saturday slate. Now the record is at 19-17 (-0.22u) on the season for best bets. We bounce back though with week number eight upon us. I have three best bets for this Saturday slate of games for you.
Tennessee vs Alabama (-8.5) (O/U 48.5) 3:30 PM EST
This is a rematch from the 52-49 thriller last year between these two squads. However, these two teams look completely different this season. Tennessee’s starting quarterback Joe Milton has not been up to the level that I thought he was going to be at this season. This Volunteers offense isn’t putting up terrible numbers, though. They score 33.5 points per game and average 452.7 total yards of offense as well. Tennessee is one of the best rushing teams in the country. They average 231.3 rushing yards per game, good for 16th in the nation. The three-headed monster of Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson has been great for Tennessee this season. Defensively, the Volunteers only allow 17 points per game and have held opponents under 200 total passing yards per game as well. This defense is legit and will cause issues for the Alabama offense.
This Alabama offense has not been up to the level that we have gotten accustomed to over the last couple of seasons. Yeah, they average 30.1 points per game, but they rank 109th in total yards of offense. The biggest issue is the inconsistent quarterback play. If Jalen Millroe can figure it out, this Alabama defense is legit and will cause issues against whatever offense they face. Alabama’s defense gives up 16 points per game and allows 316.6 total yards of offense per game. I think Alabama’s defense is great, but this offense still has question marks.
Betting Trends
-Tennessee unders are 4-1 in their last 5 games overall.
-Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Alabama.
-Alabama is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games played in October.
-Alabama overs are 6-3 in their last 9 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am riding with Tennessee +8.5 at -110 odds for one unit. The Volunteers keep this within a one score game. Alabama’s defense is good and Tennessee’s defense has been better than it has in the past. Jalen Millroe vs Joe Milton won’t be a great matchup. This is a defensive battle and the Volunteers won’t lose by more than a touchdown.
Wisconsin (-2.5) vs Illinois (O/U 41.5) 3:30 PM EST
The Wisconsin Badgers are looking to bounce back after a poor showing last week. Wisconsin still has a good rushing attack led by Braelon Allen. Allen has rushed for 559 yards to go along with 6.1 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns. Wisconsin averages 27.2 points per game and 185.7 rushing yards per game this season. First year Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell has to be disappointed in Tanner Mordecai’s play so far this season. With the bad quarterback play, their defense has been great again in 2023. They allow 17.8 points per game and allow 350.2 total yards of offense. They have done a good job defensively and against a struggling Illinois offense, I think Wisconsin is going to dominate on defense.
Illinois is struggling as they average 20.3 points per game and converts on 32.2% of their third down attempts. The Fighting Illini average 391.1 total yards of offense per game and the majority of it comes through the air. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has thrown for 1,571 passing yards to go along with 8 passing touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Illinois struggles at maintaining the football. If they cut their turnover numbers down, the Illini will give the Wisconsin defense an issue. Defensively, the Fighting Illini struggle as they allow 28.1 points per game and allow 411 total yards of offense. Illinois struggles against the run as they allow 164.1 rushing yards per game. If Illinois wants to win this game, they are going to have to stop the run.
Betting Trends
-Wisconsin is 11-2 in their last 12 games against Illinois.
-Wisconsin unders are 4-1 in their last 5 games overall.
-Illinois is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games overall.
-Illinois unders are 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Wisconsin money line at -130 odds for 1 unit. The Badgers are due to get this offense rolling and against Illinois is a perfect spot for them. Wisconsin’s defense is legit and I think that they can yet again carry them to yet another Big Ten victory in this one. Ride the Badgers to the cash counter this weekend.
Utah vs USC (-7) (O/U 53.5) 8:00 PM EST
We saw this matchup twice last year and the Utes came out on top both times. A 47-24 Pac-12 title loss still haunts USC to this day. The Trojans are back, however, coming in at 6-1 and are led by quarterback Caleb Williams offensively. Williams has thrown for 2,021 passing yards to go along with 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. USC averages 47.3 points per game but last week their offense looked horrible against Notre Dame. The Trojans have struggled against Utah the last few matchups and they will need their offense to carry them in this one. Defensively, the Trojans are not great as they give up 30 points per game. They give up 244.6 passing yards per game and their secondary is suspect. This is the week where the Trojans defensively can get a confidence boost potentially.
Utah is 5-1 currently and star quarterback Cameron Rising has yet to play a snap this season. Offensively, the Utes only score 21.7 points per game which isn’t great. However, their defense has carried them this season. They are 3rd in the country in rushing yards allowed per game and they give up 307.8 total yards of offense per game. Utah also keeps opponents off the board as they only give up 12.2 points per game. The Utes are going to need their defense in a big way if they want to beat Caleb Williams three straight times.
Betting Trends
-Utah is 4-2 straight up in their last six games against USC.
-Utah unders are 5-1 in their last six games overall.
-USC is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-USC is 11-0 straight up in their last 11 home games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Utah +7 at -110 odds for one unit. The Utes have played well against Lincoln Riley’s USC team so far in his short USC tenure. Utah defensively is very good and the Trojans looked like a shell of themselves last week. I think USC can win this game, but the Utes keep it close. Take the Utes and the points here.
